WxJordan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Thanks for the post. I am just wondering, since this storm just "appeared" on the Euro, where most other modeling has most of the precip off the coast............shouldn't we wait until we see if the storm itself can be consistently modeled before identifying any possible "trends" or specifics......... or are you bullish on the general setup as shown by the 12z Euro? TIA I have been very bullish on this pattern producing a winter storm for about two weeks now, lol. I agree it may be a little to early; however, I am relatively confident in the pattern producing something. I actually have watched the front off the coast on the GFS for two days and have been thinking to myself "Something doesn't look right?" The next few runs of the models will be important. The EURO ensembles, the GFS 0z and the EURO 0z will hopefully give some clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GSP raises a eyebrow! ON TUESDAY...THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING.BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVETROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTHTUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES....AWIDE FIELD OF H5 Q-CONVERGENCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND SLIDE DUEEAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTCOAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE/COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SCCOAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE QPF WILL DEVELOP ASFAR WEST AS THE NC MTNS. IF THIS EVENT MATERIALIZES...PRECIPITATIONWILL FALL AS SNOW AS COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE12Z RUN DOES LACK CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. I WILL TREND THEFORECAST HIGHER POPS AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILLRANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULDREMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Board is gonna blow up the next 5 days. I believe it just did ... almost as much comment on a maybe-storm 6 days out then we had on the clipper earlier this week on the day it hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 That's a cold storm. -10C over the piedmont. I was just thinking the same thing. Ratios would be fairly high, especially on the back end. Certainly higher than we are accustomed to whenever it does snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 12z Euro Ens is obviously SE of the OP but not a whole lot does show a low of the SE coast and precip making it back to central NC, GSP and SouthCentral GA and lighter precip west of there. I would consider it fairly good ENS support for day 5/6, maybe to good. Little more on the ENS mean, has 0.25-0.50" of precip from 85 and points east, 0.5" and greater by the coast. 0.1"-0.25" goes as far west as AVL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 holy crap..anyone check out the euro's surface temps over eastern nc/sc? Lows below zero there next thursday thanks to the snow pack and high directly overhead! Meanwhile it has north ga only in the 20s or upper teens also...the euro shows 0c 850mb temps down to...key west behind the storm. That's amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 23, 2014 Author Share Posted January 23, 2014 Shawn/folks, Due to being swamped, I just now finally got time to put together an analysis of today's 0Z Euro members as regards the Atlantic coastal storm threat. I know I'm behind because the 12Z Euro showed a big coastal storm (was bound to happen based on the last few ensemble runs..essentially the operational finally became one of the stormy members this time), which I won't address here (though the 12Z Euro ens. mean and members should be quite interesting!) 0Z Euro ens. members showing 2"+ at Wilmington, NC (ILM): 9 of 51, which I analyzed closely for 6 cities. The amounts for the 6 cities turned out to jibe real well. In other words, the heaviest snows at TLH, SAV, CHS, MYR, ILM and even at CAE were pretty much from the same members but with a strong tendency for mainly gradually increasing amounts in this listed order of coastal cities (no surprise there). So, ILM had the highest average and TLH the lowest. The following are the amounts in inches for the nine 2"+ ILM members for TLH/SAV/CHS/MYR/ILM as well as for CAE, which I listed separately due to it not being coastal and it being kind of on its own in some cases (heaviest amount for each member bolded): 1. 3/5/6/5/4; CAE: 0 2. 5/8/10/12/11; CAE: 9 3. 0/0/0.25/1.25/3; CAE: 0.25 4. 2/6/8/7/9; CAE: 13 5. 0/0.25/0.25/1.75/3; CAE: 0.25 6. 0/0.25/1.75/1.25/3; CAE: 6 7. 3/4/5/6/7; CAE: 0.75 8. 1.25/4/4/6/5; CAE: 0 9. 0.75/3/6/13/14; CAE: 6 So, TLH was, not surprisingly, always lightest of the five coastal cities at least in a tie. CAE was lightest for 3 of the 9 but also heaviest for 2 of the 9. CHS was heaviest for 1 of the 9. MYR was heaviest for 2 of the 9. ILM was heaviest for 4 of the 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossthread Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 KILM being very, very conservative as usual.. Or are behind on todays runs, or just Out too Lunch.... Weak low pressure maydevelop offshore Tuesday and Tuesday night in response to approaching uppertrough and reinforcing shot of Arctic air. This may help to enhancethe precipitation shield offshore. At this time...the system looksprogressive and too weak to bring precipitation onshore.Therefore...will keep rain and wintry mix largely offshore...perhapsgrazing the Cape Fear coast Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. If anyprecipitation were to move onshore...it would likely be in the formof snow. We will continue to monitor trends with successiveforecasts. Finally a coastal trough is expected to develop Thursday andThursday night...but the associated precipitation that develops isexpected to remain offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 OK back from my meeting. Just a word of caution, this is fun to look at but keep in mind it's just one run. Good thing going for us is that the GFS has been close and the Euro ensembles have been hinting at something like this. The bad thing is that it's still 5-7 days out. Agree. I'm not going to feel good about this until I see a frame with a big "L" in the gulf, rather than apprearing east of Florida. Until then CLT is on the edge; and that doesn't usually turn out well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Shawn/folks, Due to being swamped, I just now finally got time to put together an analysis of today's 0Z Euro members as regards the Atlantic coastal storm threat. I know I'm behind because the 12Z Euro showed a big coastal storm (was bound to happen based on the last few ensemble runs..essentially the operational finally became one of the stormy members this time), which I won't address here (though the 12Z Euro ens. mean and members should be quite interesting!) 0Z Euro ens. members showing 2"+ at Wilmington, NC (ILM): 9 of 51, which I analyzed closely for 6 cities. The amounts for the 6 cities turned out to jibe real well. In other words, the heaviest snows at TLH, SAV, CHS, MYR, ILM and even at CAE were pretty much from the same members but with a strong tendency for mainly gradually increasing amounts in this listed order of coastal cities (no surprise there). So, ILM had the highest average and TLH the lowest. The following are the amounts in inches for the nine 2"+ ILM members for TLH/SAV/CHS/MYR/ILM as well as for CAE, which I listed separately due to it not being coastal and it being kind of on its own in some cases (heaviest amount for each member bolded): 1. 3/5/6/5/4; CAE: 0 2. 5/8/10/12/11; CAE: 9 3. 0/0/0.25/1.25/3; CAE: 0.25 4. 2/6/8/7/9; CAE: 13 5. 0/0.25/0.25/1.75/3; CAE: 0.25 6. 0/0.25/1.75/1.25/3; CAE: 6 7. 3/4/5/6/7; CAE: 0.75 8. 1.25/4/4/6/5; CAE: 0 9. 0.75/3/6/13/14; CAE: 6 So, TLH was, not surprisingly, always lightest of the five coastal cities at least in a tie. CAE was lightest for 3 of the 9 but also heaviest for 2 of the 9. CHS was heaviest for 1 of the 9. MYR was heaviest for 2 of the 9. ILM was heaviest for 4 of the 9. Thanks for this analysis Larry! I am anxiously awaiting the monsters that are going to show up on the individual members here in a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If you compare the last three days worth of EURO 12z runs the trough has trended much further west for the target 1/28 12z time frame. Also notice the ridge heights are much higher up into Canada on the new runs. 12z run from 1/21 - below 12z run from 1/22 - below 12z run from 1/23 (today) - -below This is going to get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 holy crap..anyone check out the euro's surface temps over eastern nc/sc? Lows below zero there next thursday thanks to the snow pack and high directly overhead! Meanwhile it has north ga only in the 20s or upper teens also...the euro shows 0c 850mb temps down to...key west behind the storm. That's amazing. Don't worry I will be more than happy to send it your way. With that much cold I would need a damn torch on my tankless water heater. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If you compare the last three days worth of EURO 12z runs the trough has trended much further west for the target 1/28 12z time frame. Also notice the ridge heights are much higher up into Canada on the new runs. 12z run from 1/21 - below USA_HGT_500mb_168.gif 12z run from 1/22 - below USA_HGT_500mb_144.gif 12z run from 1/23 (today) - -below USA_HGT_500mb_120.gif This is going to get interesting Great post Moto, thanks for sharing. Seeing something like this should get people more excited. I wonder why other mets like Ryan M and DT (others) aren't barking for this one after seeing these maps? Any ideas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 NWS GSP Facebook post..... The potential for accumulating snow for the W. Carolinas and NE Georgia is increasing for Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning. Discussion: https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201401231932-KGSP-FXUS62-AFDGSPForecast: http://go.usa.gov/YK5j Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If you compare the last three days worth of EURO 12z runs the trough has trended much further west for the target 1/28 12z time frame. Also notice the ridge heights are much higher up into Canada on the new runs. 12z run from 1/21 - below USA_HGT_500mb_168.gif 12z run from 1/22 - below USA_HGT_500mb_144.gif 12z run from 1/23 (today) - -below USA_HGT_500mb_120.gif This is going to get interesting. The million $ question is does this trend continue btw....I when you get interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Great post Moto, thanks for sharing. Seeing something like this should get people more excited. I wonder why other mets like Ryan M and DT (others) aren't barking for this one after seeing these maps? Any ideas? Probably because with that big fat PV sitting up there it will be real hard to get this thing to turn up the coast. I think there is room to penetrate further north in the south but it's still likely to end up out to sea versus heading up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Chris, I hit 22 last night and that's become fairly routine this winter. Tonights 11 or 12 will be more unusual, but only by some So much for a torch winter. It's cold, has been cold, and looks to be cold. I'm loving it. Makes up nicely for the last two..or at least it's a start. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Great post Moto, thanks for sharing. Seeing something like this should get people more excited. I wonder why other mets like Ryan M and DT (others) aren't barking for this one after seeing these maps? Any ideas? I've got a few. That's not in DT's backyard/DelMarVa, so he won't buy it. It's not in JB's market...we'll have to see what some SE mets say. Matthew East is lurking, that's a good sign. Post Matthew, post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yes I agree, but you would think with so many people in the southeast it would be a perfect time to expand your subscription base......even if it doesn't hit your BY. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 My eyes…my eyes….look away….look away…what can go wrong in 6 days, unfortunately a lot.What model is this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yes, Matthew needs to add his two cents. Make me believe!!!! or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 From HM in the Mid-Atlantic Forum Getting HM happy with it is a good start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yes, Matthew needs to add his two cents. Make me believe!!!! or not. Along with RaleighWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yes, Matthew needs to add his two cents. Make me believe!!!! or not. You asked for it from FB. Matthew East Snow fans....12z Euro. Nice Carolina snow event Tue. Models have hinted at this potential for a while. BUT, it's one run & I'm far from sold yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 It's one run of a model that has shown snow here many times this year only to not pan out!!! That's why there's not much chatter from Met's... Although this one looks to have best potential so far this year in eastern sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 What model is this? Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxgeek Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Panhandle area -- Tallahassee. Dusting to 1/2" Jacksonville area. lovely...I just happen to be in the panhandle....time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Along with RaleighWx Allan has been updating his twitter account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 holy crap..anyone check out the euro's surface temps over eastern nc/sc? Lows below zero there next thursday thanks to the snow pack and high directly overhead! Meanwhile it has north ga only in the 20s or upper teens also...the euro shows 0c 850mb temps down to...key west behind the storm. That's amazing. Ironically its only been below zero here twice EVER and both times were without snowpack lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 8m Taken literally, 12z ECENS mean is 4-8 for coastal SC/NC,tidewater. 2-4 for much of centrl/eastern Ga/SC/NC/SE Va. Again this is mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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