packfan98 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I thought the problem was with a NW trend, this means the low itself moves NW which means the warm air coming from the tropics expands west also...wouldn't that begin to put them in danger of just having rain? You are correct. However, if the amount of cold air depicted is anywhere close to being correct, the temperatures would be cold enough for frozen precip. Still quite a bit of time before the event so it may track further west and be warmer. I will also say that the upper air pattern indicates that it would be really difficult for the storm to go so far west that it takes all of the SE crew out of the frozen precip. Makes more sense that it will stay to the south and east at this point. This is our best chance. Keep your fingers crossed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 His most recent post is confusing. It was posted clearly after the 12Z Euro came out, but it references the 0Z as if he hadn't seen the 12Z when he wrote it. I noticed that, too. I think he's really licking his wounds after this last debacle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Disc I feel this one for us 6 days out and it's already starting to back in toward the coast. Plenty of time people in my neck of the woods piedmont and Charlotte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 When this falls apart I think Widre and I will have a lot of company on the negative nelly bandwagon. Also, don't you people have jobs! OSHA mandates breaks buddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I noticed that, too. I think he's really licking his wounds after this last debacle. That was brutal for him a few days ago, he hammered the local news outlet for being conservative with there forecasts and when they ended up being right it was tough to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Low forming on TX coast...check, suppressed OTS in the 5-7 day range....check, plenty of good cold air.....check Not sure what everyone is expecting but at this stage it actually looks pretty good from where I am sitting. Its way better than having something wet and warm and hoping it produces its own cold or some long shot setup where we have to thread 10 needles to see a sloppy inch with BL issues all over the place. This is the post that I most agreed with in here. Euro looks really good...GFS looks very similar to me overall with the way the shortwave drops into the trough far enough west so that it works toward neutral to slightly negative tilt as it rounds the base of the eastern longwave trough, so very similar to the storm a few days ago, but move it south. I also agree with Cold Rain that the modeling could easily be pressing the arctic boundary too far south. Overall, I think everything looks really good right now for a potential hit in at least some areas of the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Also, don't get Brad P and Ryan M calling this "wish casting"….the best model on the planet is showing this as a day 5/6 threat and GFS does support somewhat and so does it's Ensembles. If this was a NE storm Ryan M would be shouting from the rooftops. Granted they may very end up being right but this isn't wish casting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Although, I'd say with the infamous "NW trend", if this trends 200 or so miles NW, Atlanta and N. Georgia would be in the 'sweet spot'. Bingo, north Georgia has this potential storm righ where we want it at this stage of the game. In my experience these types of systems trend towards our favor not NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ST21 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The best part about all this is the ground temps should be relatively cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Bingo, north Georgia has this potential storm righ where we want it at this stage of the game. In my experience these types of systems trend towards our favor not NC. Yea, just sitting here laughing at everyone trying to pinpoint details... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Georgia soil temps: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_ga_soil.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The EURO finally shows the chance of a winter storm in the southeast. It is about time. The pattern is right for this to happen. I actually believe the storm may trend west over the next few days, and here is why. Usually the models suppress the storms to much in this time frame, like the GFS. The 850 mb low on the EURO is over the midlands of SC, nearly 300-400 miles west of the surface low. The 500 mb low is even farther west. These upper level features may try to move the storm westward over time. But it is about time we at least see the chance of a winter storm in the southeast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Yea, just sitting here laughing at everyone trying to pinpoint details... So far so good. That is if you count one run of Dr. No good. Sure is sweet and within a good window of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpStateCAD Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The EURO finally shows the chance of a winter storm in the southeast. It is about time. The pattern is right for this to happen. I actually believe the storm may trend west over the next few days, and here is why. Usually the models suppress the storms to much in this time frame, like the GFS. The 850 mb low on the EURO is over the midlands of SC, nearly 300-400 miles west of the surface low. The 500 mb low is even farther west. These upper level features may try to move the storm westward over time. But it is about time we at least see the chance of a winter storm in the southeast! may be a stupid question.....but how will the PV and the ultra cold air in place next week affect the ability of this system to trend NW......If the cold is being properly depicted will it prevent this from occuring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormsfury Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The EURO finally shows the chance of a winter storm in the southeast. It is about time. The pattern is right for this to happen. I actually believe the storm may trend west over the next few days, and here is why. Usually the models suppress the storms to much in this time frame, like the GFS. The 850 mb low on the EURO is over the midlands of SC, nearly 300-400 miles west of the surface low. The 500 mb low is even farther west. These upper level features may try to move the storm westward over time. But it is about time we at least see the chance of a winter storm in the southeast! that's a big problem for Coastal Locations, WAA aloft, or at least it would be, unless it's missing the upper levels vs the sfc features, and low. for Coastal locales, optimum would be the 850mb low just offshore, case in point Feb 12 2010. otherwise, there would an extremely nasty area of ice in between the transition line. one thing to note is how very cold the offshore SST's and near shore SST's are well down due to all the cold shots, particularly this month. even saw some buoy reports 100 miles offshore where SST's are in the low-mid 40's, that's astoundingly low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The blocking on the Euro is just sick, hopefully the Ens agree, the 0z ENS was close. That's the trend over the past few runs is to strengthen the blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 time for the Euro to tell us to "Prepare for Glory;" Spoken like a true Prophet 10 minutes before the Doc come out. Knew it had to happen sooner or latter with all the ensmbles barking in such a fever pitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxJordan Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 may be a stupid question.....but how will the PV and the ultra cold air in place next week affect the ability of this system to trend NW......If the cold is being properly depicted will it prevent this from occuring? Not a stupid question at all. I am assuming that if the storm trends westward, then the amount of cold air would also trend westward. If the cold air is as strong as shown on the EURO, then it would be very difficult for the surface low to trend westward over time. So I am assuming that the cold air will move westward over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ukie has no storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Ukie has no storm. Day 5 it has a weak low off the N-FL coast, not bad for the Ukie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Been fooled to many times by Dr. No, So I'll wait till some others jump on board and way west (for the foothills) from where it's at now. Week after next is when we get our storms rolling, But it's to warm for wintry precip then! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Day 5 it has a weak low off the N-FL coast, not bad for the Ukie. You've turned face again. Yes! Nogaps, Ukie, GFS, CMC vs. EWCMBWFEWF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The EURO finally shows the chance of a winter storm in the southeast. It is about time. The pattern is right for this to happen. I actually believe the storm may trend west over the next few days, and here is why. Usually the models suppress the storms to much in this time frame, like the GFS. The 850 mb low on the EURO is over the midlands of SC, nearly 300-400 miles west of the surface low. The 500 mb low is even farther west. These upper level features may try to move the storm westward over time. But it is about time we at least see the chance of a winter storm in the southeast! good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 OK back from my meeting. Just a word of caution, this is fun to look at but keep in mind it's just one run. Good thing going for us is that the GFS has been close and the Euro ensembles have been hinting at something like this. The bad thing is that it's still 5-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The EURO finally shows the chance of a winter storm in the southeast. It is about time. The pattern is right for this to happen. I actually believe the storm may trend west over the next few days, and here is why. Usually the models suppress the storms to much in this time frame, like the GFS. The 850 mb low on the EURO is over the midlands of SC, nearly 300-400 miles west of the surface low. The 500 mb low is even farther west. These upper level features may try to move the storm westward over time. But it is about time we at least see the chance of a winter storm in the southeast! Thanks for the post. I am just wondering, since this storm just "appeared" on the Euro, where most other modeling has most of the precip off the coast............shouldn't we wait until we see if the storm itself can be consistently modeled before identifying any possible "trends" or specifics......... or are you bullish on the general setup as shown by the 12z Euro? TIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Day 5 it has a weak low off the N-FL coast, not bad for the Ukie.hmm... ewall has nothing on its charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 that's a big problem for Coastal Locations, WAA aloft, or at least it would be, unless it's missing the upper levels vs the sfc features, and low. for Coastal locales, optimum would be the 850mb low just offshore, case in point Feb 12 2010. otherwise, there would an extremely nasty area of ice in between the transition line. one thing to note is how very cold the offshore SST's and near shore SST's are well down due to all the cold shots, particularly this month. even saw some buoy reports 100 miles offshore where SST's are in the low-mid 40's, that's astoundingly low. Indeed OK back from my meeting. Just a word of caution, this is fun to look at but keep in mind it's just one run. Good thing going for us is that the GFS has been close and the Euro ensembles have been hinting at something like this. The bad thing is that it's still 5-7 days out. Maybe I should invest in Midol stock for the insane mood swings that will be affecting the community Interesting run to say the least..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 From HM in the Mid-Atlantic Forum As others have noted, MR-LR modeling has been quite variable with individual storm threats. But longer-term means, climo and general patterns have been stellar in the numerical guidance. Anyway, notice the modeling doesn't quite partially phase these waves as the system leaves the East. The GFS was actually a lot closer in doing it than the ECMWF. We'll see how this goes but I like the potential a lot for the following reasons:1. All 3 streams are present and become 1 upper-level jet (plot 200mb winds e.g.) up the East Coast.2. This wave drops straight down from polar lats behind a departing PV that was just anomalously south.3. Brief "-NAO west" blip negative at Day 3-5 will begin to rise thereafter as PV races back north.4. Some Pacific flow begins undercutting PNA in about 5 days.5. Enhanced oceanic baroclinicity from recent/incoming Arctic Air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 GSP Disco... ON TUESDAY...THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING.BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT A POSITIVELY TILTED LONGWAVETROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND DEEP SOUTHTUESDAY EVENING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES....AWIDE FIELD OF H5 Q-CONVERGENCE ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND SLIDE DUEEAST. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTCOAST...WITH A FRONTAL WAVE/COASTAL LOW MAY DEVELOP OFF THE SCCOAST. BOTH SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT MEASURABLE QPF WILL DEVELOP ASFAR WEST AS THE NC MTNS. IF THIS EVENT MATERIALIZES...PRECIPITATIONWILL FALL AS SNOW AS COLD AIR WILL ALREADY BE IN PLACE. HOWEVER...THE12Z RUN DOES LACK CONSISTENCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. I WILL TREND THEFORECAST HIGHER POPS AND INCREASE CLOUD COVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILLRANGE FROM 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULDREMAIN AROUND 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 hmm... ewall has nothing on its charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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