GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Folks,I couldn't wait any more to start this thread. The ducks are on the pond bigtime. The projected pattern is screaming one or two major winter threats. There have been multiple Euro/GFS runs over the last week or so showing on and off one or two storms from Miller A's/B's producing major S, IP, and/or ZR over much of the SE during and around 1/28-2/1. In some cases (0Z 1/22 and 0Z 1/21 op. Euro runs), this has even included rarely hit coastal areas, especially CHS northeastward through the Outer Banks! The last three op. Euro runs have had no fewer than four winter storms with major impacts for some areas! The last two Euro ensemble runs (51 members) have been about as impressive as any I've ever seen for being 6-10 days out in the not often hit SE US. For example, the 12Z version had no fewer than SIX of the 51 members giving KATL a whopping 6-11" of snow, which would be near or above multidecadal highs! The 0Z version's mean actually gives many areas even more snow with 2-3" that happen to be in and near the classic CAD regions of NC/SC/GA! Folks, seeing a mean of 2-3" there and 1-2" in a large portion of the SE on a 51 member ensemble run 6-10 days out is an unusually strong signal for the SE US. I haven't seen the individual members for KATL, but the mean is ~1.75" vs 1.40" on the prior run. So, it likely is showing even more impressive amounts or more members with high amounts vs. the 12Z run of yesterday. I feel the period of 1/28-2/1 is, as of now, the most promising for one or two widespread winter storms since January of 2011! Let's rock!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Folks, I couldn't wait any more to start this thread. The ducks are on the pond bigtime. The projected pattern is screaming one or two major winter threats. There have been multiple Euro/GFS runs over the last week or so showing one or two storms producing major S, IP, and/or ZR over much of the SE. In some cases, this has even included rarely hit coastal areas, especially CHS northeastward through the Outer Banks. The last three op. Euro runs have had no fewer than four winter storms with major impacts for some areas! The last two Euro ensemble runs (51 members) have been about as impressive as any I've ever seen for being 6-10 days out in the not often hit SE US. For example, the 12Z version had no fewer than SIX of the 51 members giving KATL a whopping 6-11" of snow, which would be near or above multidecadal highs! The 0Z version's mean actually gives many areas even more snow with 2-3" that happen to be in and near the classic CAD regions of NC/SC/GA! Folks, seeing a mean of 2-3" there and 1-2" in a large portion of the SE on a 51 member ensemble run 6-10 days out is an unusually strong signal for the SE US. I haven't seen the individual members for KATL, but the mean is ~1.75" vs 1.40" on the prior run. So, it likely is showing even more impressive amounts or more members with high amounts vs. the 12Z run of yesterday. I feel the period of 1/28-2/1 is, as of now, the most promising for one or two widespread winter storms since January of 2011! If one were to look at my posts, he/she would see that I haven't done posts like this in several years addressing widespread major winter storm threat(s) for a specific upcoming period.....unless I'm forgetting something. Let's rock!! We've all heard of the legendary triple phasers, but this is something special. With this thread, you have opened yourself to the possibility of having the first quadruple bust thread in the history of meteorology. You're a true pioneer. We stand in awe!! God speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gritsnc Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I was wondering when someone was going to start talking about this. Our local meterologist (Austin Caviness) mentioned the threat of something next week. I'm crossing my fingers that the trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Love the potential GaWx. Bring it home! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Great! I suggested that you start this thread! 12z GFS coming on in currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GAdawg Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You write I will follow. It really looks like there might be something to follow for a change. Hope it continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This is a brave stand 5-7 days out. But every global model has a LP in the GoM in this time period. Not all resolve it the same, but it's there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 right on cue, the first "Larry" storm is there around hr 200. Plentiful amounts of moisture from the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS is close but it's a little too warm for most. Even in NC it goes from snow to rain. Don't know if I buy that given the overall setup. Let's see what the Euro says this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z gfs finally starts to show something around hr 204/216. Of course that's after truncation. It has more of an ice look than snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Not a good look on 12z GFS. SLOW. VERY SLOW with h5 compared to even 06z. Big timing/h5 changes from just 6 hr ago's forecast. I really don't like the GFS. Euro is much better at this range. At least it picks up the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Not a good look on 12z GFS. SLOW. VERY SLOW with h5 compared to even 06z. Big timing/h5 changes from just 6 hr ago's forecast. I really don't like the GFS. Euro is much better at this range. I agree Shawn...No consistancy with the gfs at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Atleast it's not a clipper thread! Just hope the moisture doesn't get here in between the arctic shots. That's what has happened so far. I hate cold rain more than dry cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS is close but it's a little too warm for most. Even in NC it goes from snow to rain. Don't know if I buy that given the overall setup. Let's see what the Euro says this afternoon. Yes, shows a storm in the gulf getting organized and ready to move east. It get's all truncified after 192 but at this time frame that's all I'm looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks like the energy is up in Wisconsin, Looks like another clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 It pushed the time frame from earlier back again. I just hope this isn't one of those day 9 storms that keeps staying at day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks like the energy is up in Wisconsin, Looks like another clipper. Whatever it is, it forms a LOW on the gulf near Louisiana and shifts it east with precipitation. I like that. I thought a clipper usually doesn't form a surface low until it hits the Atlantic ala a Miller B. This seems to want to get the southern stream involved near the gulf, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks like the energy is up in Wisconsin, Looks like another clipper. I agree, I didn't see any southern stream energy, but we are looking at something that is 200+ hours away. The day 5/6 potential looks like it could be a repeat of last night, although maybe a little farther north, something that will probably pan out for the MA and points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Meteostar again says no precip threw 180 hrs for mby and what falls between 216-252 is nothing more than a few passing showers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks like the cmc gives far south Texas and northern Mexico a foot of snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yvilleweather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Glad we have something else in the works that has more possibility for more of us to see some flakes...getting shafted yesterday hurts badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Looks like the cmc gives far south Texas and northern Mexico a foot of snow next week. When the GGEM starts to show a big SE snowstorm, it's time to get worried. Pretty happy that it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Meteostar again says no precip threw 180 hrs for mby and what falls between 216-252 is nothing more than a few passing showers Michelle, Actually, between 204 and a little after 216, it appears to me that COLA is getting some combo of IP/ZR as the temp. gets down to 30 F with precip. falling, That is definitely not plain rain as modeled. They get ~0.25" of qpf in the form of IP/ZR. I'm surprised that this 12Z GFS didn't garner more excitement. It has moderate S/ZR/IP for much of NC/SC from Columbia north and west/N GA incl. most of ATL area to Athens late on 1/30 into 1/31. Example: Charlotte gets 0.26" with temp.'s 25-32...looks like mainly snow with 850's -1 to 0C..so ~2.5". RDU gets ~0.20" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's of -1 C and temp.'s 25-29. HKY is 25-31 with ~0.25" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's -2 to -1 C. GSP gets 0.33" qpf which look to be mainly IP with 850's mainly 0 to +1 C and temp.'s mainly 26-32. Gainseville, GA, gets 0.44" qpf that looks like mainly IP with 850's +1 to +2 C and temp.'s 31-32. Athens gets 0.44" of what looks like mainly ZR with 850's of +2 to +3 and temp.'s of 31-32. Marietta and NE ATL both get rain changing quickly to ZR with 0.47" of qpf and temp.'s dropping to as low as 31. Although not shown, I'd expect the Zr to go further south..perhaps down to near Tony's abode. The 850's of only +3 to +4 C there would support ZR. The 12Z GFS clown map from my provider looks quite underdone for some reason for NC. Although there is hardly any wedge (if any at all), there is very dry air. I'm thinking TD's of singles to low teens in many cases as the precip arrives. (I'm ignoring the GFS' negative single number TD's because I'm guessing that's overblown based on a bias.) With no good warm air advection with the precip., temp,'s crash with evap. cooling. Though significant, this is a moderate, not major, event as modeled. However, even as modeled, it would far and away be the best opportunity for many so far this winter. Also, with the then very cold ground from very cold dominating til then, it would be a big mess on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Sure does. Here is hour 216 Michelle, Actually, between 204 and a little after 216, it appears to me that COLA is getting some combo of IP/ZR as the temp. gets down to 30 F with precip. falling, That is definitely not plain rain as modeled. They get ~0.25" of qpf in the form of IP/ZR. I'm surprised that this 12Z GFS didn't garner more excitement. It has moderate S/ZR/IP for much of NC/SC from Columbia north and west/N GA incl. most of ATL area to Athens late on 1/30 into 1/31. Example: Charlotte gets 0.26" with temp.'s 25-32...looks like mainly snow with 850's -1 to 0C..so ~2.5". RDU gets ~0.20" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's of -1 C and temp.'s 25-29. HKY is 25-31 with ~0.25" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's -2 to -1 C. GSP gets 0.33" qpf which look to be mainly IP with 850's mainly 0 to +1 C and temp.'s mainly 26-32. Gainseville, GA, gets 0.44" qpf that looks like mainly IP with 850's +1 to +2 C and temp.'s 31-32. Athens gets 0.44" of what looks like mainly ZR with 850's of +2 to +3 and temp.'s of 31-32. Marietta and NE ATL both get rain changing quickly to ZR with 0.47" of qpf and temp.'s dropping to as low as 31. Although not shown, I'd expect the Zr to go further south..perhaps down to near Tony's abode. The 850's of only +3 to +4 C there would support ZR. Although there is hardly any wedge (if any at all), there is very dry air. I'm thinking TD's of singles to low teens in many cases as the precip arrives. (I'm ignoring the GFS' negative single number TD's because I'm guessing that's overblown based on a bias.) With no good warm air advection with the precip., temp,'s crash with evap. cooling. This is a moderate, not major, event as modeled. However, even as modeled, it would far and away be the best opportunity for many so far this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Michelle, Actually, between 204 and a little after 216, it appears to me that COLA is getting some combo of IP/ZR as the temp. gets down to 30 F with precip. falling, That is definitely not plain rain as modeled. They get ~0.25" of qpf in the form of IP/ZR. I'm surprised that this 12Z GFS didn't garner more excitement. It has moderate S/ZR/IP for much of NC/SC from Columbia north and west/N GA incl. most of ATL area to Athens late on 1/30 into 1/31. Example: Charlotte gets 0.26" with temp.'s 25-32...looks like mainly snow with 850's -1 to 0C..so ~2.5". RDU gets ~0.20" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's of -1 C and temp.'s 25-29. HKY is 25-31 with ~0.25" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's -2 to -1 C. GSP gets 0.33" qpf which look to be mainly IP with 850's mainly 0 to +1 C and temp.'s mainly 26-32. Gainseville, GA, gets 0.44" qpf that looks like mainly IP with 850's +1 to +2 C and temp.'s 31-32. Athens gets 0.44" of what looks like mainly ZR with 850's of +2 to +3 and temp.'s of 31-32. Marietta and NE ATL both get rain changing quickly to ZR with 0.47" of qpf and temp.'s dropping to as low as 31. Although not shown, I'd expect the Zr to go further south..perhaps down to near Tony's abode. The 850's of only +3 to +4 C there would support ZR. The 12Z GFS clown map from my provider looks quite underdone for some reason for NC. Although there is hardly any wedge (if any at all), there is very dry air. I'm thinking TD's of singles to low teens in many cases as the precip arrives. (I'm ignoring the GFS' negative single number TD's because I'm guessing that's overblown based on a bias.) With no good warm air advection with the precip., temp,'s crash with evap. cooling. Though significant, this is a moderate, not major, event as modeled. However, even as modeled, it would far and away be the best opportunity for many so far this winter. Also, with the then very cold ground from very cold dominating til then, it would be a big mess on the roads. I know for myself personally I would be more excited if it was showing these amounts prior to truncation. Imo it didn't look that great at hr 192 but we all know things are going to change in future runs. Just look at the changes between 6z and 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 22, 2014 Author Share Posted January 22, 2014 Shawn, Please check your PM's. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Michelle, Actually, between 204 and a little after 216, it appears to me that COLA is getting some combo of IP/ZR as the temp. gets down to 30 F with precip. falling, That is definitely not plain rain as modeled. They get ~0.25" of qpf in the form of IP/ZR. I'm surprised that this 12Z GFS didn't garner more excitement. It has moderate S/ZR/IP for much of NC/SC from Columbia north and west/N GA incl. most of ATL area to Athens late on 1/30 into 1/31. Example: Charlotte gets 0.26" with temp.'s 25-32...looks like mainly snow with 850's -1 to 0C..so ~2.5". RDU gets ~0.20" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's of -1 C and temp.'s 25-29. HKY is 25-31 with ~0.25" of qpf in the form of snow with 850's -2 to -1 C. GSP gets 0.33" qpf which look to be mainly IP with 850's mainly 0 to +1 C and temp.'s mainly 26-32. Gainseville, GA, gets 0.44" qpf that looks like mainly IP with 850's +1 to +2 C and temp.'s 31-32. Athens gets 0.44" of what looks like mainly ZR with 850's of +2 to +3 and temp.'s of 31-32. Marietta and NE ATL both get rain changing quickly to ZR with 0.47" of qpf and temp.'s dropping to as low as 31. Although not shown, I'd expect the Zr to go further south..perhaps down to near Tony's abode. The 850's of only +3 to +4 C there would support ZR. The 12Z GFS clown map from my provider looks quite underdone for some reason for NC. Although there is hardly any wedge (if any at all), there is very dry air. I'm thinking TD's of singles to low teens in many cases as the precip arrives. (I'm ignoring the GFS' negative single number TD's because I'm guessing that's overblown based on a bias.) With no good warm air advection with the precip., temp,'s crash with evap. cooling. Though significant, this is a moderate, not major, event as modeled. However, even as modeled, it would far and away be the best opportunity for many so far this winter. Also, with the then very cold ground from very cold dominating til then, it would be a big mess on the roads. I didn't look at anything other than meteostar output, and with it being past truncation and the slightly colder bias of the gfs, I'd bet on rain instead of snow. I'd be excited if I lived in n.ga/upstate/nc for the upcoming period......and no.....I'm not channeling widre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'll be excited over getting any snow, but I think a lot of folks are wanting a big dog with more than 3 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Does anything make it into southern VA or is it a deep south special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Shawn, Please check your PM's. Thanks. Responded good sir. Also, I didn't notice too much in the way of ice shown around kcae with my horrible low res maps I used. I did notice that 0c 2meter line poking it's head down with precip though; so good catch. Michelle, when the ensemble plumes from GFS come out for 12z here soon; I'll post them in here for KCAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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