China could be a part of the "hiatus"

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2014/01/140121130034.htm

 

 

http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2014/140121/ncomms4098/full/ncomms4098.html

 

 

Does that mean it increases forcing and warming?  Or saying more clouds causing less insolation to reach the surface?

 

Increasing levels of anthropogenic aerosols in Asia have raised considerable concern regarding its potential impact on the global atmosphere, but the magnitude of the associated climate forcing remains to be quantified. Here, using a novel hierarchical modelling approach and observational analysis, we demonstrate modulated mid-latitude cyclones by Asian pollution over the past three decades. Regional and seasonal simulations using a cloud-resolving model show that Asian pollution invigorates winter cyclones over the northwest Pacific, increasing precipitation by 7% and net cloud radiative forcing by 1.0 W m⁻² at the top of the atmosphere and by 1.7 W m⁻² at the Earth’s surface. A global climate model incorporating the diabatic heating anomalies from Asian pollution produces a 9% enhanced transient eddy meridional heat flux and reconciles a decadal variation of mid-latitude cyclones derived from the Reanalysis data. Our results unambiguously reveal a large impact of the Asian pollutant outflows on the global general circulation and climate.

 

[Msalgado]

The paper describes an increase in regional radiative forcing due to clouds.  The higher droplet concentration within the clouds adds a net overall warming affect for the region due to both increased LW and SW radiation.  The figures you have there are specifically for the top of the atmosphere and the surface, but figure 2b shows the increased forcing to be .7 W/M^2 in the atmosphere overall.

 

I'm not sure how the effect would play out globally but a regional increase in radiative forcing doesn't seem to play into the idea of causing or being part of the cause for the "hiatus" (god I hate this term).

[skierinvermont]

This study focuses on winter mid-latitude cyclones. Clouds in winter tend to have near neutral radiative forcing, and in this case appear to have a slight positive radiative forcing. 

 

Clouds in summer have a strongly negative forcing because they reflect sunlight. In winter, there is less sunlight to reflect, but still LW radiation to trap making the net effect near neutral (probably depending on cloud properties, exact location, and exact date). 

 

The paper isn't very explicit that the forcing is positive, but that's what the wording seems to indicate.

[Msalgado]

I think the 3rd and 4th paragraphs do state pretty explicitly that this is a positive forcing but given the temporal and spatial constraints I don't know what the net global result is.  I doubt its very large.  However, the changes to the storm track and storm intensity are more interesting.  One would think that Chinese aersols are going to largely dimish in the coming decades, however.

[The_Global_Warmer]

So they are not really discussing the aerosol effects?

 

I have seen charts showing a -5w/m2 or so from aerosols over the China region to the East before they disperse.

 

[Jonger]

Quite a bit of that map is sand.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Quite a bit of that map is sand.

 

 

 

I know.  But I don't feel like chasing down the papers about China's So2 effect. 

 

Last time it took me hours and I had to magnify like 220px images from a paysite to see what the graphics showed.

 

I was just trying to show that So2 shows up thick over Eastern China regions which is not sand.

[Jonger]

China is quite the disaster.... They are about as polluting as we were 100 years ago, except there are 20x more people there.

I haven't looked at the paper yet, but does it have a global so2 and no2 chart?

[The_Global_Warmer]

China is quite the disaster.... They are about as polluting as we were 100 years ago, except there are 20x more people there. I haven't looked at the paper yet, but does it have a global so2 and no2 chart?

 

 

Not the one that I linked at the top I don't think.  I don't think it's actually directly about China's pollution and it's effects on radiative forcing.

 

I remember seeing a paper using NASA satellite detection of So2.  Showing at times a huge blanket of pollution over Eastern China and regions that they estimated had a -5 to -7w/m2 effect on solar insolation at times. 

 

Obviously this isn't going to be very noticeable in the weather charts because it's highly regional and localized.  But it did bleed East over the WPAC.  

 

China has a pretty low latitude. So for the most part it's just a tiny dent in the normal insolation. 

 

But I would think as that So2 gets spread out and pushed upwards it would have a small dimming effect on insolation. 

 

 

Sadly there is scant observation and analysis post 2000 of this.  But we know India and China in the last 15 years have ramped up their pollution exponentially.  Even if it's not properly reported.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Check this out.  I have no idea if that would have a big impact or not.  But the timing is freaking impeccable.  You overlap that with the solar drop.  And if China has cleaned it's act up in the last couple years and all of a sudden OHC starts rising quickly?

 

Hmmm

 

 

http://www.climate-connect.co.uk/Home/?q=node/1243

 

Climate Connect News, 22 September 2011, London: The Chinese Ministry of Environmental Protection has released stricter emission standards for sulphur dioxide and oxynitride emissions from the power sector. The new standard targets reducing sulphur dioxide emissions by 6.18 million tons and oxynitride emissions by 5.8 million tons by 2015. The standard would come into effect from 2012. ....

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

That image is older but I will see if I can pull some newer ones from that german site.  It's the folks that put out the Bremen Sea ice stuff.  But even back then you can see the large China build up.

 

 

 

http://www.doas-bremen.de/so2_from_scia.htm

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Here we go:            http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/4/044024/article

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Figure 2. (a) Time series of the annual emission of anthropogenic SO₂ (in 10⁴ Gg) in China. The red and blue dashed lines mark the averages of the emission in the two decades of 1999–2008 and 1989–1998 respectively. ( Differences of SO₂ emission (in mg m⁻² d⁻¹) between the two decades of 1999–2008 and 1989–1998. The shaded area also indicates the model area.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Over the two humps of sulfate, there are two downward currents respectively (figure 3). Due to the compensation effect, an upward current between the two humps and another upward current at about 26°N are formed. The downward (upward) currents correspond to the decrease (increase) in rainfall shown in figure 1(. In figure 4, it is found that the whole of eastern China has stronger negative radiative forcing at the top of the atmosphere in 1999–2008 than in 1989–1999, with the maximum difference value of about −3.0 W m⁻². The two humps of sulfate cause stronger negative radiative forcing on the atmosphere around 30°N and 40°N in 1999–2008 than in 1989–1998 (figure 4). These two negative radiative forcing centers induce air sinking, which results in the formation of the two downward currents in the corresponding areas (figure 3). It is noted that the amount of sulfate is higher at 40°N than at 30°N, but the heights of the humps of sulfate are about the same (figure 3); the difference of the radiative forcing between 30°N and 40°N is small (figure 4), and then the downward currents over those two areas are about the same (figure 3). Overall, through analyzing the model results, we find that the heavy pollution contributes to rainfall change over the past two decades.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here is another paper on it:

 

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/1/014003/article

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

http://www.tellusb.net/index.php/tellusb/article/view/20410/html

 

 

 

Fig. 2.   East Asia (solid dot), eastern China (ECHN, solid square), western China (WCHN, solid cross) and global (dash circle) emissions (anthropogenic+biomass burning) of SO₂ and BC derived from IPCC AR5 (global emissions are scaled by 1/10).

 

 

 

 

We also have to remember where India and China are. These So2 emissions pouring out of these countries are located between 12-38N latitude.  India is mostly 12-30N while China emissions are 20-35N.

 

This is over a larger region of real-estate and consistent incoming solar insolation vs when the US and Euro/Russia had higher emissions. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

I haven't seen this one before but it makes sense.

 

 

http://phys.org/news/2012-04-hole-climate-eastern-states.html

 

[Msalgado]

The initial paper is talking about aerosols but in how aerosols are affecting convection in a specific area and time of the globe.  its not a comprehensive look at aerosols.