Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Still looks pretty far north on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Still looks pretty far north on the GFS But it is trending south..Again look at the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We might get some flakes/coating, but the track of the low is clearly going north of us...look at the PV (it is temporarily retreating NE) which allows this to track well north. If anything the chance is a day or two after this with the left over energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This run was colder than previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If that energy continues digging further south, we might see redevelopment near the gulf region with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We might get some flakes/coating, but the track of the low is clearly going north of us...look at the PV (it is temporarily retreating NE) which allows this to track well north. If anything the chance is a day or two after this with the left over energy. And the system earlier this week was CLEARLY going out to sea. This trended South today on both the NAM and GFS. I'm not saying it's anything big. But saying it hasn't trended South would be incorrect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This run was colder than previous runs. We're still likely above freezing Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Monday's system was predicated on the PV being further west. As soon as the models latched onto the idea of it retreating northeast it allowed the low for Monday to track to our north. The system for the middle of next week is being overlooked and should be watched. Should the PV end up a bit further west than modeled it will give the energy a bit more room to amplify and come up the coast. As it stands right now, it's a close miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Monday's system was predicated on the PV being further west. As soon as the models latched onto the idea of it retreating northeast it allowed the low for Monday to track to our north. The system for the middle of next week is being overlooked and should be watched. Should the PV end up a bit further west than modeled it will give the energy a bit more room to amplify and come up the coast. As it stands right now, it's a close miss. Yeah. The look on the GFS at 144 is tantalyzing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 If that energy continues digging further south, we might see redevelopment near the gulf region with this. You have a southern stream vort moving across the deep south over the weekend that gets sheared out by the northern stream. A piece of the PV eventually phases in with the northern stream and we get development offshore. Perhaps we could have ended up with a triple phaser if that southern stream vort was stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 You have a southern stream vort moving across the deep south over the weekend that gets sheared out by the northern stream. A piece of the PV eventually phases in with the northern stream and we get development offshore. Perhaps we could have ended up with a triple phaser if that southern stream vort was stronger. I don't know about triple phaser but there's a lot going on. There's an energetic shortwave diving down, an elongating and retreating PV, you have some energy down to the gulf states. Finally you have all that energy offshore on the gfs, and I really see something coming together as we get closer. The cold air will be here for a long time, and it's really a ticking time bomb for a major storm. The NAO will also be quite positive, which makes any major suppression or cold and dry pattern suspect in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit. shouldnt this be in the banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 12z GEFS ensemble mean has some buckling in the isobars near the mid-atlantic coast and some precip over the region for Monday/Tuesday time frame. I bet at least a few of the members are significantly further south than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Check out the 18Z NAM and all the southern precip at hr. 84 - have to wait for the 18Z GFS run and see if it has it. Did the 12Z EURO have it ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014012318/namconus_reflectivity_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Check out the 18Z NAM and all the southern precip at hr. 84 - have to wait for the 18Z GFS run and see if it has it. Did the 12Z EURO have it ? http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2014012318/namconus_reflectivity_us_27.png The 18z NAM was day and night more amplified with the trough at the end of its run, but it's the long range NAM and has a bias of being too amplified in that range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 18z NAM was day and night more amplified with the trough at the end of its run, but it's the long range NAM and has a bias of being too amplified in that range. A signal showing that this threat is alive and well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 A signal showing that this threat is alive and well. if that is one of it knows biases and its being too amped why is the threat alive and well ? I agree its alive but its in critical condition this event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 if that is one of it knows biases and its being too amped why is the threat alive and well ? I agree its alive but its in critical condition this event... Remember the NAM's overly amped bias signals a sizable storm, but that's IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This clipper is what could ignite a miller A storm. There's more to this than just a run of the mill clipper and next week looks very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This 'clipper' thread/threat should be shut down. Its going through Canada with no affect here....There is possible for something after but its a completely a different storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This 'clipper' thread/threat should be shut down. Its going through Canada with no affect here....There is possible for something after but its a completely a different storm. Just change the title. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 This 'clipper' thread/threat should be shut down. Its going through Canada with no affect here....There is possible for something after but its a completely a different storm. yea,,that clipper is toast. I had some damn hope for that little thing just a couple days ago. at least there's some hope further down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 The 18z NAM was day and night more amplified with the trough at the end of its run, but it's the long range NAM and has a bias of being too amplified in that range. The 18Z GFS has practically no precip down south at 84 hr.s http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012318/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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