odwalla Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 6z GFS is impressive! Likely ~6" for much of the NYC region, with impressive ratios and decent QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 agreed - this storm has been shown up on the GFS for several days straight now http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2014012206/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We're already within 5 days. Lets see what the 12z GFS shows soon. It has been good this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS went westward towards the other models for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z GFS is a lot further north with the track of the low. Cuts to our north. Snow for New England, nada for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Just like the past storm, things can still change from this point forward. All the models do agree though about this storm cutting west of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The GFS gives us a little something Sunday night now ~.05"..whereas it had been showing snow Monday night into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 12z GFS is a lot further north with the track of the low. Cuts to our north. Snow for New England, nada for us. There's actually some QPF as snow with SW winds in the boundary layer. Really awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 We need the PV to be a bit more elongated north to south, that will force the shortwave south and allow for more amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Storm cuts north of us and we still get a little snow...not bad! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 There's actually some QPF as snow with SW winds in the boundary layer. Really awesome. Yes, maybe a tenth of an inch or so, but a lot less than prior runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This may actually be the Euro's first win this winter if it verifies because it consistently has shown the more north track which I had been tossing since its been so awful this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This may actually be the Euro's first win this winter if it verifies because it consistently has shown the more north track which I had been tossing since its been so awful this winter. HMMM second piece around its back side at 114 ? It looked at 114 , it was splitting the energy and had a piece into VA , but nada at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 so is the storm there or not? North meaning along coast or west of us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 so is the storm there or not? North meaning along coast or west of us? Too early , get ready for 1- 2 Sat , take em 1 at a time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The ecm tracks the mon (1/27) storm into NY state very little qpf into the region, looks wet snow/mix to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The changes at 500mb on every model through 84 hours cycle by cycle are tremendous and suggest that we should be expecting significant alterations to the forecast moving forward. The guidance is struggling with individual perturbations in the flow running around the PV and top the PNA ridge in poor data regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Upton says just a few snow showers - as system passes north of us - not much accumulation http://kamala.cod.edu/nj/latest.fpus51.KOKX.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The changes at 500mb on every model through 84 hours cycle by cycle are tremendous and suggest that we should be expecting significant alterations to the forecast moving forward. The guidance is struggling with individual perturbations in the flow running around the PV and top the PNA ridge in poor data regions. Some are saying there is little chance this storm cuts into the PV and that it will go south a la GFS yesterday. What are your thoughts on how this plays out? Too soon to tell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 If the of retreats northeastward As the latest run suggested this thing goes well north, if not it has a chance. Right now I'd say we're too far south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Some are saying there is little chance this storm cuts into the PV and that it will go south a la GFS yesterday. What are your thoughts on how this plays out? Too soon to tell? I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit. LOL are you JB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I don't even think its physically possible to phase in the entire PV. A lobe of it, sure, that'll get you a bad ass Miller B bomb but the entire PV, not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I don't even think its physically possible to phase in the entire PV. A lobe of it, sure, that'll get you a bad ass Miller B bomb but the entire PV, not gonna happen. Full lattitudes trough. Aka Called a great planetary wave ie 93 there plenty of waves to capture . Which one is TD I will honestly say this is not one and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Hr84 gfs way south with clipper compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 I have an eerie feeling between 1/28 and 2/1 we have a PV complete phase in with a southern stream impulse for a Miller B HECS, NESIS 4+ event. Something that could potentially bring 18-24 inches of snow to the NYC and LI area with 50 knot winds. Severe blizzard event. I am riding this out until I am proven wrong. I just have an extra sense feeling we will have 40-50 inch snow depths, drifts to ten + feet and temps below zero for a once in generation event to close out January for our immediate area. Pattern has the earmarks for something very special and extreme. Looks like the only way it will break or snap back to normal cold. Please consider the possibility being not impossible. Let's critique this post when the dust settles and revisit. We have our WOTY candidate, folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Hr84 gfs way south with clipper compared to 18z how far south and is it similar to this past Tuesday storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 We have our WOTY candidate, folks! Maybe. Although he did have some slightly ridiculous predictions that mostly verified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 how far south and is it similar to this past Tuesday storm?? Not enough. Still correcting This run dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricktamland Posted January 23, 2014 Share Posted January 23, 2014 Hr84 gfs way south with clipper compared to 18z Disagree, looks to me that it's just faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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