Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III

[Santa Clause]

Lol, they said I was going to get 3-8 in that last storm. Not too shabby hahaha

[djr5001]

 

I will be updating this each day over the next week to see just how high we climb in the rankings... a high of 20 today at MDT will still drop the average for the month by a half of a degree...

 

anyone else have where current average ranks for State College/etc? Looks like around 18th coldest based on mean high and mean low for State College

[Scummyratguy]

http://www.ydr.com/business/ci_24975964/york-county-storm-chasing-site-gains-popularity

do not click on this link.... actually who wants to click on it and go leave comments since I think just about all of us are blocked from the facebook page?.... hehehe

This makes me cringe. It's disappointing that the newspaper lends any credibility to them.

[2001kx]

AZ004>006-010-011-017-024-033-242015-

/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0005.140125T0700Z-140126T0100Z/

/O.CON.KCTP.WC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-140124T1500Z/

WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT...

ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...

JOHNSTOWN...SOMERSET

412 AM EST FRI JAN 24 2014

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS

MORNING...

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT

FROM 2 AM TO 8 PM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LAUREL HIGHLANDS.

* HAZARD TYPES...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS THIS MORNING. SNOW AND

BLOWING SNOW ON SATURDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* WIND CHILLS...15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING.

* TIMING...EXPECT SNOW TO BEGIN AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE NORTHWEST

MOUNTAINS AND SPREAD INTO THE LAURELS DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.

[EasternUSWX]

6Z gfs says long range warm up cancel. Replaces with a historical snow storm. lol

[paweather]

12z NAM has a nice little swath of snow for most tomorrow.

[sauss06]

12z NAM has a nice little swath of snow for most tomorrow.

.087 for MDT. an 1" maybe to freshen up

[EasternUSWX]

GFS back off on cold a little as now trying to show that coastal storm. 

[EasternUSWX]

GFS crushing snow storm remains at 12Z for the start of FEB. Also a over running event on the 2nd. 

[NeffsvilleWx]

GFS crushing snow storm remains at 12Z for the start of FEB. Also a over running event on the 2nd. 

 

 

I don't know if I'd call it "crushing," but there is a nice event there for most of the state. 0.9" for most everyone but temps are more seasonal, with the LSV in the 30's and the rest of the state in the 20's.

[EasternUSWX]

I don't know if I'd call it "crushing," but there is a nice event there for most of the state. 0.9" for most everyone but temps are more seasonal, with the LSV in the 30's and the rest of the state in the 20's.

 

It is a widespread 6"+ for northern pa. For most of them that have been snow starved, i'd call it crushing. 

[JamieOber]

Good read unless you're Voyage http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

[canderson]

Good read unless you're Voyage http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february/

LOL! (laughing at the statement, not Voyager's misfortune.

[Festus]

WWA issued for Chester, Berks and points east down our way from 10 AM - 5 PM tomorrow for 2 - 4".

[NortheastPAWx]

CTP:

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Even getting a general coating to 2" of snow would be nice on the existing snow cover.

[WmsptWx]

Penny and nickeling our way. One inch at a time.

[psuhoffman]

I am going to make a more detailed post with examples and maps on my facebook blog sometime tonight but I wanted to throw the basics out there on here first.  I did some research for those of us north or west of the York/Lancaster area on what types of situations are favorable for a 10" plus event.  I am sure I am not saying anything new but the examples showed an obvious track/type of system that is favorable for us.  Looking at dozens of storms from the last 50 years it seems that the most favorable track for central PA is when the storm initially takes a track into the TN Valley, crossing northern TN or KY before a secondary develops off the coast.  If the primary low makes it into KY before the secondary takes over, it is not as important how close to the coast the secondary track is, there were examples of inland runners but also tracks out by the benchmark, as long as the primary low made it up into KY before the transfer central PA can do well.  If the primary low takes a track south of Nashville TN or develops on the coast we need it to hug to coast.  It HAS to track well inside the benchmark or for a further south benchmark it can be no further then about 100 miles east of the Delmarva or else we are likely to miss the heavier snows to the east. 

 

Another interesting find, if the primary low tracks up west of the apps into KY initially, then transfers, it is very possible for both central PA and Philly/NYC to get a significant snowstorm.  However, if it is a pure coastal system, we need Philly and NYC to change over to ice or rain 90 percent of the time.  It is VERY rare for a pure coastal system where the primary formed along the coast for NYC and central PA to get significant snows.  Not so rare if the primary went west of the apps before a secondary transfer of energy. 

 

So sum up we want a low track either into KY before a transfer to the coast, OR a miller A that tracks either right along the coastline or within 100 miles of it. 

[psuhoffman]

I absolutely LOVE the pattern setting up for February.  The signal for a storm in the Feb 4-6 period is very good and this time its the type of system we can do very well with.  A system that originates to our southwest and brings gulf moisture up and over established cold air.  These are typically winners for central PA.  I also think this pattern continues for most of Feb.  I think we will have a trough axis in the middle of the country but with highs that try to banana into new england and with the southeast ridge trying to throw WAA up into PA.  Could be a nice month for some of us that have been fringed for a while. 

[JamieOber]

I am going to make a more detailed post with examples and maps on my facebook blog sometime tonight but I wanted to throw the basics out there on here first.  I did some research for those of us north or west of the York/Lancaster area on what types of situations are favorable for a 10" plus event.  I am sure I am not saying anything new but the examples showed an obvious track/type of system that is favorable for us.  Looking at dozens of storms from the last 50 years it seems that the most favorable track for central PA is when the storm initially takes a track into the TN Valley, crossing northern TN or KY before a secondary develops off the coast.  If the primary low makes it into KY before the secondary takes over, it is not as important how close to the coast the secondary track is, there were examples of inland runners but also tracks out by the benchmark, as long as the primary low made it up into KY before the transfer central PA can do well.  If the primary low takes a track south of Nashville TN or develops on the coast we need it to hug to coast.  It HAS to track well inside the benchmark or for a further south benchmark it can be no further then about 100 miles east of the Delmarva or else we are likely to miss the heavier snows to the east. 

 

Another interesting find, if the primary low tracks up west of the apps into KY initially, then transfers, it is very possible for both central PA and Philly/NYC to get a significant snowstorm.  However, if it is a pure coastal system, we need Philly and NYC to change over to ice or rain 90 percent of the time.  It is VERY rare for a pure coastal system where the primary formed along the coast for NYC and central PA to get significant snows.  Not so rare if the primary went west of the apps before a secondary transfer of energy. 

 

So sum up we want a low track either into KY before a transfer to the coast, OR a miller A that tracks either right along the coastline or within 100 miles of it. 

The two early Feb 2010 storms got snow far enough up, as did PD II. I think, though, they had enough overrunning to get the snow up here ?

[NortheastPAWx]

The two early Feb 2010 storms got snow far enough up, as did PD II. I think, though, they had enough overrunning to get the snow up here ?

Yeah, 2/10/10 was a good one back home as well (though the 2/26 retro-snowbomb was a good bit more memorable). Who knows, maybe this could resemble Feb 2010.

[MillvilleWx]

Yeah, 2/10/10 was a good one back home as well (though the 2/26 retro-snowbomb was a good bit more memorable). Who knows, maybe this could resemble Feb 2010.

I don't think this pattern can yield this specific type of result, but sustained cold locked in during a split flow with storms cutting underneath the ridge out west can give us a little something special. We won't have the awesome -NAO we had back in 2010, but the cold will definitely be here especially later on in mid February. I'm excited for this upcoming pattern. Besides, if we did have a 2010 repeat...

[MAG5035]

Another interesting find, if the primary low tracks up west of the apps into KY initially, then transfers, it is very possible for both central PA and Philly/NYC to get a significant snowstorm.  However, if it is a pure coastal system, we need Philly and NYC to change over to ice or rain 90 percent of the time.  It is VERY rare for a pure coastal system where the primary formed along the coast for NYC and central PA to get significant snows.  Not so rare if the primary went west of the apps before a secondary transfer of energy. 

 

The Blizzard of '96 is probably the ultimate rare example of a pure coastal system with Gulf origins snowing big on the majority of central PA and the entire megalopolis.

 

 

Yeah, 2/10/10 was a good one back home as well (though the 2/26 retro-snowbomb was a good bit more memorable). Who knows, maybe this could resemble Feb 2010.

 

It doesn't seem that the NAO/AO is going to resemble Feb 2010 (among other things), at least initially. Which kinda worries me a bit if we break into this more gradient type pattern that the models have been suggesting for after this coming week's deep freeze. The European operational today kind of shows how this can go wrong, with us on the wrong side of the gradient and back to raining next weekend (talking D9-10 though). Lack of blocking via the NAO would figure to leave us susceptible to such things when the storminess shows up with the PNA forecast to become negative. On the other hand, it's going to be a fight for anything to displace the insistent cold we have and will continue to have with an established snow pack, etc. I def like the look overall though, as it appears to become active. 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

I didn't include feb 6 2010 because north and east of mdt got left out and northern pa totally missed it. It also did have a weak primary that was west before the coastal took over as well as a massive stj feed. Very rare. Feb 10 2010 was a miller b with a primary that was well north into the Ohio valley before the coastal bombed. One trend I've noticed lately is storms that are more intense but also tightly wound. More contracted. Historically 20" storms were more rare but widespread 10" not as much. Now it seems the coast gets bombed with tightly wound storms that don't make it far inland.

Oh and feb 2003 was also a miller b with primary into ky before a transfer. That's a classic track for us. Other examples of that type were feb 1960, feb 1961, jan 1964, feb 79, jan 96, and feb 2003.

Best examples of pure coastals that took an inside track were jan 66, dec 69, feb 72, jan 87, march 93, March 94, dec 2002, all had mixing in NYC.

Also almost all the exceptions I found like feb 1984 or feb 2010 were El Niño storms with massive stj feeds. So don't count on them in non niño years.

[psuhoffman]

The Blizzard of '96 is probably the ultimate rare example of a pure coastal system with Gulf origins snowing big on the majority of central PA and the entire megalopolis.

It doesn't seem that the NAO/AO is going to resemble Feb 2010 (among other things), at least initially. Which kinda worries me a bit if we break into this more gradient type pattern that the models have been suggesting for after this coming week's deep freeze. The European operational today kind of shows how this can go wrong, with us on the wrong side of the gradient and back to raining next weekend (talking D9-10 though). Lack of blocking via the NAO would figure to leave us susceptible to such things when the storminess shows up with the PNA forecast to become negative. On the other hand, it's going to be a fight for anything to displace the insistent cold we have and will continue to have with an established snow pack, etc. I def like the look overall though, as it appears to become active.

I didn't consider 96 an exception because it had a very pronounced trough and a weak wave that tracked up west of the apps before the coastal bombed. It's close and debate able but also a once a century type event.

[WmsptWx]

You wanna know what I'd like to see again in my lifetime?

 

The event back in 2007-8 where a 5-10 mile swath of Lancaster county got a foot of snow and people a mile or two over got nothing. THAT was a weird/awesome event.

[Eskimo Joe]

You wanna know what I'd like to see again in my lifetime?

 

The event back in 2007-8 where a 5-10 mile swath of Lancaster county got a foot of snow and people a mile or two over got nothing. THAT was a weird/awesome event.

That was!  I remember being at Millersville and getting about 4" from that.  While Eric Horst got 12" at his house.

[canderson]

So tomorrow's going to suck driving to BWI, then DC proper, then back home. Starting around 10 am, returning around 8 pm or so.

Ugh.

[Voyager]

Good read unless you're Voyage http://www.wsi.com/blog/energy/sub-seasonal-u-s-temperature-outlook-bitter-cold-weather-is-anticipated-to-continue-through-the-end-of-february

 

Not what I wanted to read Jamie. Today was brutal, and I don't mean the cold, but it WAS the reason for my problems.

 

I was trying to knock some of the ice loose inside my vent hose on the trailer, only too much came loose and lodged in the bottom neck. I had to make a mad dash and shut off the pump, and then torch for about a half hour to loosen it up and shrink it enough to pull it out. Then, on the next load, the loading hose had ice in it and wouldn't seal properly, so when I turned on the water flow to load the trailer, it came gushing out all over everything. Ran back in and shut the pump, pulled the hose and torched the ice. Hooked it back up and started the flow again and then....BANG!!! I forgot to put the cotter pin back in on the valve, and it slammed shut, sucking the rod nearly back into the trailer. That ended my day as I had to get the mechanic to fix it.

 

I suppose it could have been worse though. Two drivers collapsed two separate tanker trailers at the water company up the street from where I unload. When that happens, they crush like an empty beer can.

[NeffsvilleWx]

So tomorrow's going to suck driving to BWI, then DC proper, then back home. Starting around 10 am, returning around 8 pm or so.

Ugh.

 

 

I'll be driving to work tomorrow around the same time.