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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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Temperature ideas.

 

Monday: Highs north in morning 15-20, south 25-30. Lows north -8 to -15, south  -5 to -10.

Tuesday: Highs north 0-5, south 5-10. Lows north -15 to -25, south  -10 to -20.

Wednesday: Highs north -5 to 0, south 5-10. Lows north -5 to -10, south  0 to -10.

 

Freeze it up. 

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This may be the best year in a long time for a solid freeze up on rivers, lakes and ponds even down here with this pattern. Been since a kid in 80s since I played Hockey on a local pond but may be by the end of the week.. Saw the bay in Baltimore when in the Coast Guard freeze up in ealy 90's. It was 90-92 sometime. Bad enough to get cargo ships stuck. Wasnt the freeze 0f 94 since I was out by then.

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Temperature ideas.

 

Monday: Highs north in morning 15-20, south 25-30. Lows north -8 to -15, south  -5 to -10.

Tuesday: Highs north 0-5, south 5-10. Lows north -15 to -25, south  -10 to -20.

Wednesday: Highs north -5 to 0, south 5-10. Lows north -5 to -10, south  0 to -10.

 

Freeze it up.

CTP has lows at MDT at "near zero" those days.
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Temperature ideas.

 

Monday: Highs north in morning 15-20, south 25-30. Lows north -8 to -15, south  -5 to -10.

Tuesday: Highs north 0-5, south 5-10. Lows north -15 to -25, south  -10 to -20.

Wednesday: Highs north -5 to 0, south 5-10. Lows north -5 to -10, south  0 to -10.

 

Freeze it up. 

 

When does this bull**** end? I've had enough... :angry:

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remember too that the models dont factor in the heat island/down-sloping with westerly flow/etc that influences temperature for MDT where York can drop 10+ degrees just from the sun setting due to sinking air with it located in the valley

 

GFSX MOS numbers dont have MDT below 0 next week... near 0 likely but I don't see -10 happening with breezy conditions right now

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remember too that the models dont factor in the heat island/down-sloping with westerly flow/etc that influences temperature for MDT where York can drop 10+ degrees just from the sun setting due to sinking air with it located in the valley

 

GFSX MOS numbers dont have MDT below 0 next week... near 0 likely but I don't see -10 happening with breezy conditions right now

 

I see MDT falling to at least -7 one of the nights next week. GFS has -9 there. 

 

Remember this is also more advection cold not just radiational. 

 

gfs_t2m_b_ma_47.png

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Having snow on the ground will help next week. Back home Wed. Morning it was -11. Which was colder than it was during the first polar vortex. It was the second time reaching at least -10 below this winter. Also total seasonal snowfall is up to 39.5 after getting another inch today. Should easily get over 40 the next few clippers. Might have a shot also for -20 next week. 

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Us in the harrisburg area, we may just squeek out another inch tomorrow to add to our total.

 

I get a chuckle from people (not people here) when I hear them discussing different aspects of the weather. Bright and early this morning,  I overheard a co-worker (company big mouth)  saying how he doesn’t understand people complaining about the cold, as cold weather doesn’t have a negative affect like say a Blizzard, or Tornado.  So I pipe up and say, well what about Wednesday, when we had to shut our company down due to water main freeze, that’s just one quick example of a negative affect!?!? His reply………….”big deal, that didn’t affect me”  

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Us in the harrisburg area, we may just squeek out another inch tomorrow to add to our total.

 

I get a chuckle from people (not people here) when I hear them discussing different aspects of the weather. Bright and early this morning,  I overheard a co-worker (company big mouth)  saying how he doesn’t understand people complaining about the cold, as cold weather doesn’t have a negative affect like say a Blizzard, or Tornado.  So I pipe up and say, well what about Wednesday, when we had to shut our company down due to water main freeze, that’s just one quick example of a negative affect!?!? His reply………….”big deal, that didn’t affect me”  

 

LOL...typical.

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http://www.ydr.com/business/ci_24975964/york-county-storm-chasing-site-gains-popularity

 

do not click on this link.... actually who wants to click on it and go leave comments since I think just about all of us are blocked from the facebook page?.... hehehe

they're my new hero's...........I didn't see any mention in the article about how they bash NWS etc. maybe i should drop them a note!

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GFS has -14, CMC is about -15 and Euro is -15. Also expect it to be a few degrees colder than modeled. Lows been going lower than modeled. 

 

Brutal cold.

 

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KUNV

 

 

Eric Horst sent this to me this morning.

 

Eric Hörst THV hit -10 this morning. Might get -15 or -20 next week if that 1040mb surface high tracks overhead. Also important...lake Erie is now 95% frozen...so less modification coming southeast.

Nasty.  I like how it drops us to -15° again at the end of the run with the highest temperature for the entire period at just 31°.

 

There won't be much modification of the air masses coming from the NW.  By the time next week's cold shot arrives, Superior, Huron, and Erie should be pretty much frozen.

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