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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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06z GFS has State College at -15 or -16°F Wednesday morning. Then a high of around 0° in the afternoon and a low near -12° Thursday morning. I have to think that is a bit overdone,

but if we have 4" of snow on the ground, who knows. Just stupid cold.

It's gonna happen...that's JB's "infrastructure damaging cold."

Thinking at some point over the next 10 days or so we get something to pop and deliver an area-wide snowfall. Maybe as the cold air retreats?

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Looks like a good opportunity to pick up a quick inch or two.  I am driving most of the length of I-99 from 3:30-5PM today so that should be about the worst of it.  :lol:

Careful, man. What was probably Centre County's worst traffic accident occurred during a squall on I-80

 

06z GFS has State College at -15 or -16°F Wednesday morning.  Then a high of around 0° in the afternoon and a low near -12° Thursday morning.  I have to think that is a bit overdone, but if we have 4" of snow on the ground, who knows. Just stupid cold.

 

 

It's gonna happen...that's JB's "infrastructure damaging cold."

Thinking at some point over the next 10 days or so we get something to pop and deliver an area-wide snowfall. Maybe as the cold air retreats?

 

Adam Moyer just posted this: https://twitter.com/AdamPHLWx/status/426347153397907456

 

As he just replied to me, IF this were to occur, that would mean a snowy Feb/Mar for all of us but it's not a slam dunk. HM has noted there is something going on for sure and Adam mentioned about the EPO will lead to a Wave 2. Whatever that means. 

 

So, if you're Voyager, probably root against the SSW. I know that the SSW gets tossed around at AmWx in a totally weenie way, but these are not hypster forecasters.

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It's gonna happen...that's JB's "infrastructure damaging cold."

Thinking at some point over the next 10 days or so we get something to pop and deliver an area-wide snowfall. Maybe as the cold air retreats?

We'll see how much of a relaxation we get and for how long, but yeah, I'd think there would be opportunities if the pattern breaks down a bit.  "Dirty warmup".

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06z GFS has State College at -15 or -16°F Wednesday morning.  Then a high of around 0° in the afternoon and a low near -12° Thursday morning.  I have to think that is a bit overdone, but if we have 4" of snow on the ground, who knows. Just stupid cold.

 

Makes me want to  :axe:  Had to thaw pipes this morning before work...lol.

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The 00z Euro ensemble mean does have a bit of a relaxation in the cold around day 10. The PV retreats a bit farther north into Quebec as a trough builds over the west coast. Here is the composite mean 850 mb temperatures and anomalies based on the top analogs from the Euro ensemble mean.

 

attachicon.gifecmAnalog850_240.png

 

Please let this happen!!!

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What a surprise to wake up earlier to 0 degrees!  It was 10 when I went to bed last night and the clouds had moved in.  It obviously cleared before dawn and my temp plummeted. 

 

I was going to point out late last night after the 0Z GFS was done that the amount of continuous cold really looked incredible.  During the full run the warmest the 850 level reached was Zero!  It had KCXY with negative lows next Tues, Wed, Thur, and Fri mornings.  The coldest morning was Thursday morning at -8F !  And, during the entire run the temperature remained below 32F except for one 12-hour period near the end of the run when a storm giving rain, sleet, and then snow occurred as arctic air was coming back in again to deliver a morning low of -4F again.

 

If we remain continuously below 32F for the next 12+ days that would have to be one of the longest continuous runs of below freezing temps in a really long time.  Maybe djr can check his records to find out when the longest stretch of AOB 32 temps  at Harrisburg ever has been there?

 

Personally, as long as there is a decent amount of snow on the ground then I won't mind the continuous cold.  It doesn't look like there is going to be any meaningful melting of the snow currently on the ground upcoming with additional chances to add to the base at least a little coming up.

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What a surprise to wake up earlier to 0 degrees!  It was 10 when I went to bed last night and the clouds had moved in.  It obviously cleared before dawn and my temp plummeted. 

 

I was going to point out late last night after the 0Z GFS was done that the amount of continuous cold really looked incredible.  During the full run the warmest the 850 level reached was Zero!  It had KCXY with negative lows next Tues, Wed, Thur, and Fri mornings.  The coldest morning was Thursday morning at -8F !  And, during the entire run the temperature remained below 32F except for one 12-hour period near the end of the run when a storm giving rain, sleet, and then snow occurred as arctic air was coming back in again to deliver a morning low of -4F again.

 

If we remain continuously below 32F for the next 12+ days that would have to be one of the longest continuous runs of below freezing temps in a really long time.  Maybe djr can check his records to find out when the longest stretch of AOB 32 temps  at Harrisburg ever has been there?

 

Personally, as long as there is a decent amount of snow on the ground then I won't mind the continuous cold.  It doesn't look like there is going to be any meaningful melting of the snow currently on the ground upcoming with additional chances to add to the base at least a little coming up.

Top 3 recent longest 32 or below stretches that I have so far for Harrisburg:

13 - December 18-30, 2000 (average high 27 - average low 14)

12 - January 14-25, 2003 (average high 26 - average low 14)

12 - January 8-19, 1982 (average high 21 - average low 8) (note had 20 of 21 straight days at or below 32... one day had high of 36)

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