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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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At least you guys were the bullseye once this year.

And honestly, I don't recall all that many storms

this year at all on models...really, inventing things to make stuff seem worse doesn't help matters. Before you say anything, keep in mind that earlier this week it was claimed that every year for the last 3-4 years all storms were south of us, and I completely destroyed that fallacy.

I see a lot of this here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_distortion Although not as bad as in other forums. In fact,

this line of thinking promotes bad information. People posted earlier that today's 12Z GFS was "warmer" and rainier...when I looked at the

actual runs, I saw that the opposite was true. Just like all those phantom southern snowstorms people were seeing each of the last four years.

All I'm saying is keeping emotions in check is the

way to go, especially in this situation. Seriously. [/

quote]

This is a great post, and it's also truth. We southern folks cashed in tremendously 4 years ago, but the last 3 were awful coming into this winter. So much is expressed on this board based on a false impression and is simply not factual.

As far as CPA/NPA missing out on snow next week due to suppressed storms, how is that looking now?

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Guys...I hope you won't mind me saying this but if you go back and read through all of the posts here from the past 24 hours, my head is literally spinning because everyone is switching back and forth between discussing the Monday event and the Wednesday event.  All I ask is that you reference the date you are talking about in each post unless it is obvious as to which one you are commenting on.

 

For example, in Sauss's post just before this here he quotes djr who was discussing the Monday event.  However, it appears that Sauss is actually asking about the Euro's take on the Wednesday event.  I make that assumption because up to this moment the GFS does not show anything for Monday.

 

I am only using the Sauss post as an example, not to pick on anyone. 

 

I look forward to having the head-spinning stop very soon.

 

Thanks.

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Guys...I hope you won't mind me saying this but if you go back and read through all of the posts here from the past 24 hours, my head is literally spinning because everyone is switching back and forth between discussing the Monday event and the Wednesday event.  All I ask is that you reference the date you are talking about in each post unless it is obvious as to which one you are commenting on.

 

For example, in Sauss's post just before this here he quotes djr who was discussing the Monday event.  However, it appears that Sauss is actually asking about the Euro's take on the Wednesday event.  I make that assumption because up to this moment the GFS does not show anything for Monday.

 

I am only using the Sauss post as an example, not to pick on anyone. 

 

I look forward to having the head-spinning stop very soon.

 

Thanks.

I was thinking the same thing. Thought it was just me getting confused. lol

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this is what irks me so much about TWC naming storms... they have one named for this weekend... ok no big deal because it is going to snow just not in PA... but they add the Monday potential and attach it to the name for this weekend as if it is the same system... its not... grrr 

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The NWS map I posted earlier show pa and the IPT hole.

God did, Sauss. He hates IPT :(

Jamie I just just kind joking when I said you was going to give us a complex.

When I stated I thought this winter the models was showing storms and then switch to not showing much. Then us getting what the models originally showed. That was my opinion....I didn't feel I was inventing anything! If my opinion was wrong that's not a problem. It was only my opinion.

I appreciate reading everything that everyone contributes here!!

I agree with the others it has been confusing at times this week trying to figure out what storm we are talking about.

Neff really good call on the JMA!!

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Jamie I just just kind joking when I said you was going to give us a complex.

When I stated I thought this winter the models was showing storms and then switch to not showing much. Then us getting what the models originally showed. That was my opinion....I didn't feel I was inventing anything! If my opinion was wrong that's not a problem. It was only my opinion.

I appreciate reading everything that everyone contributes here!!

I agree with the others it has been confusing at times this week trying to figure out what storm we are talking about.

Neff really good call on the JMA!!

I just don't think we need to add to the stress...that's all I'm saying. I don't really recall the models showing big dog storms much this winter. Been sort of weird that way. 

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So I wonder what happens when it doesn't materialize?

Jamie agreed it has been a weird year storm wise.

 

Readers will say (if there is no storm) see there wasn't a storm all those weather people are idiots and then when the real one comes - they ignore the warnings until to late and they get stuck somewhere and then will say why weren't we warned properly about it.

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Lancaster newspapers quoted eastern pa weather authority's warning of a massive crippling storm next week. I quit life.

Good Lord...

 

So I wonder what happens when it doesn't materialize?

Jamie agreed it has been a weird year storm wise.

 

 

Readers will say (if there is no storm) see there wasn't a storm all those weather people are idiots and then when the real one comes - they ignore the warnings until to late and they get stuck somewhere and then will say why weren't we warned properly about it.

I think that at least some of the deaths and injuries in major storms are from people ignoring warnings due to thinking forecasts are never right. 

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