EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
var126 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wmsptwx, snowcover is solid across most of NC PA. Keep in mind, your situation is unique. Although that should change this weekend. no snow cover in eastern Union County, either, for the most part - usually stops at the Great Wall of RBWinter State Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Fugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 MDT went sorta MIA with a missing ob at 11am... now Capital City Airport jumped to a suspicous 46 degrees with MDT back and at 24... what is going on? lol most sites in the LSV are currently about 10 degrees colder than their projected 1:00 temps from the 12z GFS and NAM runs this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
var126 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 NASA Snowhole photo taken Wednesday...we look like a dirty spot on a diaper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 MDT went sorta MIA with a missing ob at 11am... now Capital City Airport jumped to a suspicous 46 degrees with MDT back and at 24... what is going on? lol most sites in the LSV are currently about 10 degrees colder than their projected 1:00 temps from the 12z GFS and NAM runs this morning! It's 35 here in Greencastle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Fugly. CMC is a few degrees warmer than 0Z. Most areas 81 east are mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 no snow cover in eastern Union County, either, for the most part - usually stops at the Great Wall of RBWinter State Park. Makes sense. This is what NWS posted Sun am: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Considering the GFS can't even seem to get a handle on Monday's wave, really wouldn't put too much stock in it. Regardless, agree with Jamie that CAD signal seems very strong for this far out, and almost always trends more robust in the last couple days before an event. Pretty confident this will be a WSW event for Central and Northern PA, question is how much snow before we start pinging, and will the ice be more sleet or freezing rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Considering the GFS can't even seem to get a handle on Monday's wave, really wouldn't put too much stock in it. Regardless, agree with Jamie that CAD signal seems very strong for this far out, and almost always trends more robust in the last couple days before an event. Pretty confident this will be a WSW event for Central and Northern PA, question is how much snow before we start pinging, and will the ice be more sleet or freezing rain? We might not have a handle on it until 12 hours out, lol. I am sort of getting nervous about all this ice, especially if we get a second ice storm next weekend. It looks extremely cold right after until a warmup mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 UKMET looks like it would be more north with Monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Jamie Wmsptwx and myself are going to get a snow complex. We know we can't get snow to save our A_ _. :-) All season long it seems the models have showed something 7- 10 days out. Then around 5 days out,change the storm.....to eventually going back to what it was showing originally. Hope that holds true Edit: what was the Japanese weather model we would use when things was looking pretty Grimm and grasping at straws? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 UKMET looks like it would be more north with Monday event. and 12z Euro stays north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Jamie Wmsptwx and myself are going to get a snow complex. We know we can't get snow to save our A_ _. :-) All season long it seems the models have showed something 7- 10 days out. Then around 5 days out,change the storm.....to eventually going back to what it was showing originally. Hope that holds true Edit: what was the Japanese weather model we would use when things was looking pretty Grimm and grasping at straws? KMA for the win? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just looked at the 12z GFS. It actually looks like the potential is there for a period of intense snowfall sometime Tuesday night, especially for C/N PA. The sounding around 06z Wednesday has the entire profile below freezing, except a small layer near 750 mb where it is around freezing. At this time, the GFS has a pretty good signal for a well defined frontogenetic circulation. C/N PA is in the ideal right entrance region of a strong 250 mb jet and this is collocated with significant 850 mb frontogenesis, sloping towards the north into an area of enhanced 700 mb frontogenesis. This suggests strong vertical motion through a deep layer, sloping towards the north with height. With this amount of lift, I think it may be possible to stay mainly snow, perhaps with some sleet mixed in up to 06z or so. Of course this scenario is far from certain. If the storm becomes much more amplified, we will have precip type issues much sooner and the best lift may be during freezing rain, sleet or plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Edit: what was the Japanese weather model we would use when things was looking pretty Grimm and grasping at straws? The JMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 For the LSV folks, Monday may be our best snow opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 For the LSV folks, Monday may be our best snow opportunity. agreed. do you have any QPF amounts from the EURO yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 agreed. do you have any QPF amounts from the EURO yet. See post #884 (5 posts back). Looks like a 3-5" storm in the LSV. I hope this is the start of better trends...as the weenies are on full alert and standing right on the edge waiting to jump.... Mind you I want snow, but I've done this long enough to not jump at every model run... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 agreed. do you have any QPF amounts from the EURO yet. MDT ~ .45" LNS ~ .50" THV ~ .55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro trended south and drier Monday. Not good when it was already the northern outlier. Edit: not good for central pa. I do think we see the usual last 24 hour bleed north and that puts the lsv area in play but for those of us in the screw zone north of there I fear more heartbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 See post #884 (5 posts back). Looks like a 3-5" storm in the LSV. I hope this is the start of better trends...as the weenies are on full alert and standing right on the edge waiting to jump.... Mind you I want snow, but I've done this long enough to not jump at every model run... Nut granted this is before the 12z Euro... published at noon today... but makes me believe they would think 12z Euro solution for Monday is better than 0z run ...SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EARLY SUNDAY AND REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC BY MONDAY... ...DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH FROM THE TN VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC... PRELIMINARY PREFERENCE: BLEND OF THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...2/3 TOWARD THE UKMET FORECAST CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS TRACKING FROM SOUTHERN CA TOWARD THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NM THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE 12Z NAM/00Z CMC ARE SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS WHICH INCLUDES THE ENSEMBLE MEANS. ON THE FLIP SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE IS THE 00Z UKMET WHICH APPEARS TOO QUICK EJECTING THE TROF ENERGY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY MORNING. A HOST OF DIFFERENCES EMERGES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM WITH THE 00Z ECMWF JOINING THE 00Z UKMET IN TERMS OF SPEED WHILE ALSO BEING MORE AMPLIFIED WHICH LEADS TO A MORE DEFINED SURFACE WAVE. OVERALL...WOULD PREFER TO STAY A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH DISCOUNTS THE AMPLIFIED 00Z ECMWF BUT ALSO DO NOT WANT TO BE AS SUPPRESSED/FLAT AS THE 12Z NAM/GFS. THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN PROVIDE A NICE MIDDLE GROUND HERE SO THE TWO WILL BE PART OF THE PREFERENCE. WILL WEIGHT A LITTLE BIT MORE TOWARD THE 00Z UKMET GIVEN THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS SOME INFLUENCES FROM ITS DETERMINISTIC RUN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Jamie Wmsptwx and myself are going to get a snow complex. We know we can't get snow to save our A_ _. :-) All season long it seems the models have showed something 7- 10 days out. Then around 5 days out,change the storm.....to eventually going back to what it was showing originally. Hope that holds true Edit: what was the Japanese weather model we would use when things was looking pretty Grimm and grasping at straws? At least you guys were the bullseye once this year. And honestly, I don't recall all that many storms this year at all on models...really, inventing things to make stuff seem worse doesn't help matters. Before you say anything, keep in mind that earlier this week it was claimed that every year for the last 3-4 years all storms were south of us, and I completely destroyed that fallacy. I see a lot of this here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_distortion Although not as bad as in other forums. In fact, this line of thinking promotes bad information. People posted earlier that today's 12Z GFS was "warmer" and rainier...when I looked at the actual runs, I saw that the opposite was true. Just like all those phantom southern snowstorms people were seeing each of the last four years. All I'm saying is keeping emotions in check is the way to go, especially in this situation. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 damn, i kinda quit even worrying about Monday, thought that was a wash. now i could be plowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 MDT ~ .45" LNS ~ .50" THV ~ .55" are we still looking high 20's- low 30s for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro has less qpf... UNV WED 06Z 05-FEB -4.3 -4.9 1016 89 100 0.18 557 545WED 12Z 05-FEB -2.9 3.1 1005 95 17 0.42 549 544WED 18Z 05-FEB 0.5 -7.8 1008 73 39 0.02 542 536 MDT WED 06Z 05-FEB -2.5 -0.6 1017 91 100 0.17 561 548WED 12Z 05-FEB 0.0 5.5 1006 97 97 0.49 555 550 WED 18Z 05-FEB 5.9 -3.8 1005 67 29 0.00 549 545 IPT WED 06Z 05-FEB -4.3 -7.6 1018 85 100 0.14 556 542WED 12Z 05-FEB -3.4 1.4 1006 95 67 0.54 549 544 WED 18Z 05-FEB 0.8 -5.8 1005 80 35 0.03 541 537 Less qpf and I really don't see any plain rain there. So, yet another solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 looking way ahead to what we want to be interested in... 12z Euro now handles the high set to build after the tuesday/wednesday event differently and then has our Saturday event too warm for southeast PA this is appropriate representation of weenie reaction to this run... http://i.imgur.com/2cXOuoj.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 this is appropriate representation of weenie reaction to this run... http://i.imgur.com/2cXOuoj.gif lol, love that gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 are we still looking high 20's- low 30s for this? yes assuming the front does push east and somewhat stall prior to this wave approaching the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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