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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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One other item to note, is a little gem Eric Horst always told us during my college days.  Double digit snow falls (10" or greater) occur once a decade on average in Pennsylvania.  Just a tidbit that always sits in my head when see day 15 threats punch out 15: of snow on the GFS or 84 hour clown maps on the NAM.

They occur more often than that depending on location.  Just off the top of my head I can name 6 10"+ storms in the 90s and 6 from 2000-2013 at my parents place in Lebanon County.

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They occur more often than that depending on location. Just off the top of my head I can name 6 10"+ storms in the 90s and 6 from 2000-2013 at my parents place in Lebanon County.

I wonder if he was referring specifically to Lancaster? I've read more than once where Eric has said that historically, Lancaster sees a double digit snowfall about once per decade.

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I wonder if he was referring specifically to Lancaster? I've read more than once where Eric has said that historically, Lancaster sees a double digit snowfall about once per decade.

I can't imagine it would be much different over that 20 mile stretch and I think Lancaster has us beat in the 2000-2013 timeframe WRT # of storms.

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They occur more often than that depending on location.  Just off the top of my head I can name 6 10"+ storms in the 90s and 6 from 2000-2013 at my parents place in Lebanon County.

which ones are you thinking of?  Feb 2010 had 2 10+ events with the back to back storms, Feb 2003, January 1996 twice, January 1994, March 1994, March 1993... I know I am blanking on others

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which ones are you thinking of?  Feb 2010 had 2 10+ events with the back to back storms, Feb 2003, January 1996 twice, January 1994, March 1994, March 1993... I know I am blanking on others

For Myerstown, Lebanon County. 

 

90s:

12/28/90: 12"

3/13-14/93: 15-18"

1/17-18/94: 17"

2/8-11/94: ~18"

12/19-20/95: ~10"

1/6-7/96: 30"

1/13/96: 13"

 

00s:

1/25/00: ~10"

2/16-18/03: 24"

2/24/05: 10"

3/16/07: 11.5"

2/5-6/10: 16.5"

2/9-10/10: 17"

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What about 12/19/2009? I had 16" with that one.

5.5" in Myerstown...terrible gradient with that one.  Also the March 94 storm that djr mentioned was 7" of almost pure sleet there...totally crippling.

 

EDIT: 2/11/06 was 7.5"...far SE corner of Lebanon County had 13", far NW corner had maybe 3".

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My Thursday point and click forecast says "A chance of snow showers after 1PM.  The snow may be heavy at times."

 

Same for tomorrow night.

 

Did I miss something?

Similar forecast for UNV.

 

Snow showers likely, mainly between 1pm and 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Cloudy, with a high near 16. Wind chill values as low as -1. Light west wind increasing to 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

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My point and click said the same thing for yesterday afternoon. Just a glitch?

A MOISTURE-STARVED CLIPPER...OVR THE UPPER PLAINS EARLY THIS

MORNING...WILL TRACK SE ACROSS PA EARLY THURSDAY. INCREASING

CLOUDS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD HOLD TEMPS UP A BIT TONIGHT

WITH LOWS MAINLY BTWN ZERO AND 5 ABV. GEFS PWATS REMAIN BTWN 1-2SD

BLW NORMAL DURING PASSAGE OF CLIPPER. HOWEVER...OPER AND AND

ENSEMBLE QPF IS SUPPORTIVE OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE LAUREL

HIGHLANDS...WHERE OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL BE GREATEST. ELSEWHERE...WILL

MENTION JUST A CHC OF -SHSN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANY ACCUMS

SHOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

 

From CTP

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12z Euro similar on track with Mondays clipper from last night, 12z GFS came north a little bit tracking the low more thru northern PA. That system again appears to be one with the best moisture and best chance for a widespread snow across the state. The track of the low is important though, the more northern track suggests the best snow would be more for New York State. Ideally for pretty much everyone to do half decent. we need the low going along or just under the mason-dixon line. 

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