Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 CMC agrees. I am pretty much done looking at the models. I had enough. Bring on summer. Waiting for Jamie...5...4..3..2....1 But seriously, I'd rather cutters than this cold bare ground crap we've been having for the past month up here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Waiting for Jamie...5...4..3..2....1 But seriously, I'd rather cutters than this cold bare ground crap we've been having for the past month up here lol. Don't worry they are coming. That is how this goes all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hearing lots and lots of ZR on that run. I really don't foresee a way our AOO-UNV-IPT corridor gets out of this without some ice issues and quite possibly a longer duration ice event. Alot of the Sus valley and NE-PA are likely to see frozen on the front end as well. The CAD signature has consistently been prominent even at this longer range on the operational models. With the models presumably starting to zero in on more of a miller-b looking outcome with a primary running for the lakes and secondary transfer.. it would boil down to the ever familiar issues of how early/how well the low transfers. That's something that won't be really resolved for a few more days. An earlier transfer obviously would yield more frozen precip over liquid/freezing precip. I know i'm hoping for more of a snow/sleet outcome over extended ZR. I already did the verified ice storm warning thing (0.3-0.5" ice) this winter with the storm before Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yea, this looks worse MAG. We also got horribly icy with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 I already did the verified ice storm warning thing (0.3-0.5" ice) this winter with the storm before Thanksgiving. I remember coming back from Thanksgiving break and seeing many trees slacking over in Clinton/Centre counties on 80W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euros snowing good in southern PA with the elusive Monday wave. Looks like a moderate event for places like JST/AOO/MDT/LNS and measurable for PIT and even all the way up to IPT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The Euros snowing good in southern PA with the elusive Monday wave. Looks like a moderate event for places like JST/AOO/MDT/LNS and measurable for PIT and even all the way up to IPT. Numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 My guess .3 southern tier .05 up here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Numbers? QPF numbers: UNV - 0.41" AOO - 0.54" IPT - 0.33" MDT - 0.76" (first tenth or so of QPF with marginal temps) LNS - 0.75" (same as MDT) PIT - 0.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro snow map looks to be between 4-7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 QPF numbers: UNV - 0.41" AOO - 0.54" IPT - 0.33" MDT - 0.76" (first tenth or so of QPF with marginal temps) LNS - 0.75" (same as MDT) PIT - 0.1" Not bad, not bad! This could be even snowier than the 2/4-5 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not bad, not bad! This could be even snowier than the 2/4-5 event And the 2/8 - 2/9 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Not bad, not bad! This could be even snowier than the 2/4-5 event Euro seemed a little weaker and more progressive with 2/5. Same crappy track but a transfer and looked more front end heavy. Had the look of a snow/sleet dump to lighter rain/zr at the end. Def not excessive with the precip.. this Monday wave almost looks like it has around as much QPF as what it's depicting for Wed's system. And the 2/8 - 2/9 event It is def not going the way of the 0z GFS/GGEM. Weak wave and most of PA with a light-moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 LOL...OHHH MODELS!! Seriously north of the turnpike don't get excited over monday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Great run of the ECM tonight with the 2/3 shock and a better trend for 2/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Does anybody who was about to leave the train, want to get back on? Now we have monday, perhaps tuesday-wed and then next weekend. All still showing differences. Gonna be a great weekend of football, hopefully funny commercials and the fave of everyone on board model watching! Woot woot its time for the model express! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Great run of the ECM tonight with the 2/3 shock and a better trend for 2/5. Yea def, looks like UNV has about a half inch of QPF as snow and 0.33" of ice. 2m temps during duration of precip look to range from 23ºF (start) to 27ºF (end). Only climbs above freezing when it's done. Closer scrutinizing of the Canadian was similar evolution to what the Euro had. 850 0 line really hung in there for awhile in central PA on the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mag hows IPT looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Mag hows IPT looking? IPT was similar to UNV and a bit colder at the surface. 0.46" as probable snow and 0.46" as non-snow (sleet/zr). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 IPT was similar to UNV and a bit colder at the surface. 0.46" as probable snow and 0.46" as non-snow (sleet/zr).Might I ask for the breakdown for MDT?LOL for Monday surprise. Anything over 4.2" is my biggest of the season. 5 to 6 would be awesome. If we are still following 1994 analog then we should all be due for a massive ice storm midweek followed by massive snowstorm next weekend followed by 15 below down here the following week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Might I ask for the breakdown for MDT? LOL for Monday surprise. Anything over 4.2" is my biggest of the season. 5 to 6 would be awesome. If we are still following 1994 analog then we should all be due for a massive ice storm midweek followed by massive snowstorm next weekend followed by 15 below down here the following week. MDT had 0.62" total for Feb 5th (actually less for MDT than what it was suggesting for Monday's storm tonight) with the first frame of 0.34" marginally good for snow and 0.28" as probably freezing rain. 2m temps stay below freezing until precip ends. Euro ensemble mean suggested some support for the Monday (Feb 3) event with a frame or two of 0.1-0.25 getting up to about I-80. Predictably, the wave is further south on the ensemble mean which could represent a decent compromise with the (GFS/Canadian/Euro op) Close to Euro operational on Feb 5th event.. appears a tad cooler than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Euro is the only model really showing the Monday system. I highly doubt it happens. Will be to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 woke up to 20 this am, feels like a heat wave. I am refusing to jump on the model flip flopping train. i will wait 24 hours before each one to decide to jump on the train and go all in, or head back to the station for a cocktail.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hoping plain rain at this point. Ice is sickening esp that much. nothing more boring than plain rain...ice ice baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Yeah, the model hugging has been a bit silly (if expected). Ensembles still show a very wide range of solutions, and the operational models have not locked onto a solution yet... and even if they had, we're still five days out and a lot will change. I'm excited for the potential. I do like that we're paying close attention to it! Let's just be careful not to "throw in the towel" or "go all in" based on one or two operational model cycles. Still apropos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Quite a bit of potential over the next week. Per the GFS ensembles, there are at least four possible waves we'll need to track. Most have been focusing on wave 4. Wave 1 (Saturday evening) - There is general agreement that this will be a "warmer" storm, and that Central PA will get well into the warm sector. Also, precipitation will probably be rather light with it. However, there are hints that it may not be as warm/far north as expected, so it can't be completely discounted yet. Wave 2 (Sunday evening) - On the tail end of the front from wave 1, at least one ensemble develops a second wave that delivers a nice, quick dump of snow for most of Central PA (mixing issues far south/east). Wave 3 (Monday evening or Tuesday morning) - Most of the ensembles have this storm in some form, and many show a favorable track for Central PA snow. There is a rather wide spread, though, and there are multiple members that either show a track too far north (warm) or too far south (no precip), and perhaps a member or two that doesn't even really develop the storm. Wave 4 (Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning) - Again, most of the ensembles show this storm in some form. Many of the ensembles are snow to ice. Some are all snow (and a lot of it). At least one only shows a bit of snow. And a couple are probably even snow-ice-rain, especially for the southeastern parts of the region. There is clearly a very wide range of possibilities for the upcoming storms, but the overall pattern is not unfavorable for us, and the way I look at it, with so many potential storms, we should at least manage to get something out of one of them, right!? Also still apropos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Waiting for Jamie...5...4..3..2....1 But seriously, I'd rather cutters than this cold bare ground crap we've been having for the past month up here lol. Ha....5...4...3...2...1 or Jamie...or sauss...or neffsville...or maytown LOL...OHHH MODELS!! Seriously north of the turnpike don't get excited over monday event. Yeah, until we see other support, good thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So....anyone want to comment on the CTP discussion? I heard that stuff about snowcover and further SE tracks from the older forecasters like Elliot Abrams when I worked at AccuWx. Not sure if that will work to our advantage here. FROM THERE A MORE IMPORTANT CYCLONE IS MADE TO APPROACH FORWED...AND THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON TIMING BETWEEN THE ECMWFAND GFS/GEFS. THE ECMWF HAS ITS LOW TRACKING INTO WESTERNPA...BEFORE REDEVELOPING QUICKLY OFF THE MID ATL COAST. THEGFS/GEFS ARE BOTH FURTHER SOUTHEAST...WITH THE GEFS BEING THE MOSTEAST AND THUS THE COLDEST SET OF SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT A WINTRYMIX IS INDICATED BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODEL OUTCOMES AS WARM AIRFLOODS IN ALOFT...BUT WITH SO MUCH SNOW COVER AND COLD AIR OVERTHE GR LAKES AND NE...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THE EVENTUAL STORMTRACK WANDERS CLOSER TO THE COAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODELRUNS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 The 00z has a higher amplitude (though still relatively low amplitude) northern stream disturbance than the GFS which phases with the shortwave over the southern plains. That allows for a more northerly track bringing moderate QPF in to much of PA for Monday. Since both shortwaves will be moving fairly quickly it may take some luck for the phase to occur as the Euro depicts. For the Wednesday event, it's the GFS that has a more substantial phase, allowing for the low to be stronger tracking through the Ohio valley into central NY. The Euro was a nice hit for areas north of about Altoona with about 5" or so at UNV. Interestingly, the southern stream vorticity maxima at 500 mb has a more southerly track into northwest Mexico on the GFS vs the Euro. The GFS however has a less amplified disturbance upstream over the four corners region. This disturbance on the Euro is more amplified and destructively interferes with the lead shortwave upstream, keeping the primary low a little weaker in the Ohio valley. In both cases, the Euro seems to be more willing to amplify these northern stream disturbances originating from the North Pacific. It will be interesting to see how these shortwaves progress in both model space and reality as they are better sampled in the next several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So....anyone want to comment on the CTP discussion? I heard that stuff about snowcover and further SE tracks from the older forecasters like Elliot Abrams when I worked at AccuWx. Not sure if that will work to our advantage here. There may be some truth to that; greater snow cover leads to a colder air mass which increases cold air damming and strengthens the baroclinic zone over the east coast. Now, the models may have properly initialized the snow cover information meaning that it is already taken into account in the solutions. Also, if the primary low is strong enough, this effect will not make much of a difference with regards to storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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