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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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FWIW (not a whole helluva lot) the Sun night/Mon wave is way north on the good ol' 84 hr NAM. 

 

Looks like it's trending to another surprise 6" for Philly  :cry:

 

But hey Euro got 0.1" snow up to KUNV from this one  :lmao:

 

Still, looks like could be a shot at a few inches for some of our York/Lancaster peeps

 

Odd that the GFS looks nothing like the Euro for this wave.

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What is the text output like?

UNV

WED 00Z 05-FEB  -4.6    -3.6    1026      97      99    0.26     564     543    WED 06Z 05-FEB  -1.2     1.5    1014      99     100    0.89     563     552    WED 12Z 05-FEB   1.1     6.6    1007     100      94    0.67     559     553    WED 18Z 05-FEB   3.4     1.8    1005     100      16    0.05     554     550

IPT

WED 00Z 05-FEB  -4.1    -4.3    1027      96      99    0.12     563     541    WED 06Z 05-FEB  -2.3     0.2    1016      99     100    0.71     562     549    WED 12Z 05-FEB   1.2     5.1    1007      99      97    1.00     559     553    WED 18Z 05-FEB   2.5     2.2    1005     100      33    0.07     553     550    THU 00Z 06-FEB  -0.7    -5.3    1009      92      27    0.01     546     539  
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Just now seeing and reviewing todays 12z and 18z stuff, looks like the consensus today on Feb 4/5th would be what I would call a classic case of a good waste of a gulf storm. I remain non-commital right now with regards to specific impacts this system will end up having on PA as it is still about 5-6 days out. If this storm indeed ends up being more of a cutter, don't expect an easy transition to plain rain... especially in the central/northern tier. 

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So we have people cancelling winter on January 30th? Wow...

We all realize that to get a big storm next weekend we WANT the midweek storm to cut? There are some really good red taggers insisting on that.

That is how it always seems to pan out...were always rooting for that storm 8-10 days out.

Then as we get closer it will be the next one after that..

Im rooting for the mid week storm...Its plenty big enough for me.

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That is how it always seems to pan out...were always rooting for that storm 8-10 days out.

Then as we get closer it will be the next one after that..

Im rooting for the mid week storm...Its plenty big enough for me.

We haven't had a pattern like this all year. I don't remember very many big storms like this 8-10 days out.

 

I'd be careful about making these kinds of assumptions as it makes us feel bad based on nothing. Remember the "south has been getting nailed every year last 3-4 years while we get nothing" idea earlier in this thread. That wasn't really the case.

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Icck, I really hope that's not 1.50" ice that I'm reading from the 18z GFS.

 

The GEFS I heard was further SE and had a transfer low in S NJ.

If I were to guess, the consensus for you guys is 2-3" of snow followed by 2-3" of sleet/ZR, and some plain rain to end it. A sloppy mess but one that should linger for a while after.

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Wow haha, GFS decided to take the "unicorn" storm near day 9 over Lake Erie making it two cutters. While there's no reason to get all flustered about that at this point I said this a few days ago.. it's a high risk high reward pattern. We should all be aware of this risk with the upcoming active storm pattern and lack of N Atlantic blocking and southeast ridging.    

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Wow haha, GFS decided to take the "unicorn" storm near day 9 over Lake Erie making it two cutters. While there's no reason to get all flustered about that at this point I said this a few days ago.. it's a high risk high reward pattern. We should all be aware of this risk with the upcoming active storm pattern and lack of N Atlantic blocking and southeast ridging.    

 

CMC agrees. I am pretty much done looking at the models. I had enough. Bring on summer. 

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