JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Writing's on the wall for a storm to cut well west. Clock is ticking on winter and it's ticking loudly. We are just entering our most likely time to see a major snowstorm up here - February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 We are just entering our most likely time to see a major snowstorm up here - February and March. I dont even know what a major snowstorm is anymore? Seriously though what is a major snowstorm for our area? 8"+ , 12"+ ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Writing's on the wall for a storm to cut well west. Clock is ticking on winter and it's ticking loudly. Yep and with Feb/March remaining, i'll tick my way to a average snowfall winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Courtesy of Mid-Atlantic Forum...snow depth after Feb 8-9 storm: Can you please break this down by county???? I would like to know if Lancaster is the lighter pink or darker pink - TY!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 FWIW (not a whole helluva lot) the Sun night/Mon wave is way north on the good ol' 84 hr NAM. Looks like it's trending to another surprise 6" for Philly But hey Euro got 0.1" snow up to KUNV from this one Still, looks like could be a shot at a few inches for some of our York/Lancaster peeps Odd that the GFS looks nothing like the Euro for this wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I dont even know what a major snowstorm is anymore? Seriously though what is a major snowstorm for our area? 8"+ , 12"+ ?? I always think of warning criteria. We had one back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 FWIW (not a whole helluva lot) the Sun night/Mon wave is way north on the good ol' 84 hr NAM. And...it is way south on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 18z GFS says what Monday threat. LOL. Gotta just love the consistency in these models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I always think of warning criteria. We had one back in December. I havent had warning snows (6") yet this winter. I believe 4" was the most snow we have had from 1 storm here this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 gfs looking even warmer for 2/5. 2-3" front end -> ice -> rain here +10 850's into southern PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Here is my map for next week...looks like a safe bet. Only about dozen model runs left...lots of changes yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Still a long ways to go Good news is it would be hard for it to trend much worse from here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not really that much different. Still showing a massive ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yikes, one skirts south, the other turning into a soaker. Glad our December storm was awesome, we're paying for it now though!! The early week storm was never a threat. Why are we paying attention to that is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So we have people cancelling winter on January 30th? Wow... We all realize that to get a big storm next weekend we WANT the midweek storm to cut? There are some really good red taggers insisting on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So we have people cancelling winter on January 30th? Wow... We all realize that to get a big storm next weekend we WANT the midweek storm to cut? There are some really good red taggers insisting on that. Weenies are crawling out of the woodwork. Paging Pennman! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Not really that much different. Still showing a massive ice storm. What is the text output like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 What is the text output like? UNV WED 00Z 05-FEB -4.6 -3.6 1026 97 99 0.26 564 543 WED 06Z 05-FEB -1.2 1.5 1014 99 100 0.89 563 552 WED 12Z 05-FEB 1.1 6.6 1007 100 94 0.67 559 553 WED 18Z 05-FEB 3.4 1.8 1005 100 16 0.05 554 550 IPT WED 00Z 05-FEB -4.1 -4.3 1027 96 99 0.12 563 541 WED 06Z 05-FEB -2.3 0.2 1016 99 100 0.71 562 549 WED 12Z 05-FEB 1.2 5.1 1007 99 97 1.00 559 553 WED 18Z 05-FEB 2.5 2.2 1005 100 33 0.07 553 550 THU 00Z 06-FEB -0.7 -5.3 1009 92 27 0.01 546 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Just now seeing and reviewing todays 12z and 18z stuff, looks like the consensus today on Feb 4/5th would be what I would call a classic case of a good waste of a gulf storm. I remain non-commital right now with regards to specific impacts this system will end up having on PA as it is still about 5-6 days out. If this storm indeed ends up being more of a cutter, don't expect an easy transition to plain rain... especially in the central/northern tier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 So we have people cancelling winter on January 30th? Wow... We all realize that to get a big storm next weekend we WANT the midweek storm to cut? There are some really good red taggers insisting on that. That is how it always seems to pan out...were always rooting for that storm 8-10 days out. Then as we get closer it will be the next one after that.. Im rooting for the mid week storm...Its plenty big enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That is how it always seems to pan out...were always rooting for that storm 8-10 days out. Then as we get closer it will be the next one after that.. Im rooting for the mid week storm...Its plenty big enough for me. We haven't had a pattern like this all year. I don't remember very many big storms like this 8-10 days out. I'd be careful about making these kinds of assumptions as it makes us feel bad based on nothing. Remember the "south has been getting nailed every year last 3-4 years while we get nothing" idea earlier in this thread. That wasn't really the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Icck, I really hope that's not 1.50" ice that I'm reading from the 18z GFS. The GEFS I heard was further SE and had a transfer low in S NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 That is how it always seems to pan out...were always rooting for that storm 8-10 days out. Then as we get closer it will be the next one after that.. Im rooting for the mid week storm...Its plenty big enough for me. Preach on Brotha!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Packing it in.GFS warmer. Barely any frozen down here. Hate the weather. Cold as hell and snow in the southeast and we get rain. H% suggest it is not getting any better. Probably all rain by game time. There were improvements this run - weaker primary, signs of a transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 1.00+ QPF widespread - verbatim it looks like a severe ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hoping plain rain at this point. Ice is sickening esp that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Icck, I really hope that's not 1.50" ice that I'm reading from the 18z GFS. The GEFS I heard was further SE and had a transfer low in S NJ. If I were to guess, the consensus for you guys is 2-3" of snow followed by 2-3" of sleet/ZR, and some plain rain to end it. A sloppy mess but one that should linger for a while after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Hearing lots and lots of ZR on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2014 Author Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow haha, GFS decided to take the "unicorn" storm near day 9 over Lake Erie making it two cutters. While there's no reason to get all flustered about that at this point I said this a few days ago.. it's a high risk high reward pattern. We should all be aware of this risk with the upcoming active storm pattern and lack of N Atlantic blocking and southeast ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2014 Share Posted January 31, 2014 Wow haha, GFS decided to take the "unicorn" storm near day 9 over Lake Erie making it two cutters. While there's no reason to get all flustered about that at this point I said this a few days ago.. it's a high risk high reward pattern. We should all be aware of this risk with the upcoming active storm pattern and lack of N Atlantic blocking and southeast ridging. CMC agrees. I am pretty much done looking at the models. I had enough. Bring on summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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