pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Low temperatures for yesterday. -23 NE OSWAYO appears to be the lowest temp. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/displayprod.php?product=PHLPNSCTP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looks like an ugly ice threat next week for central pa, and I remember how the cold has been hanging on longer out here on the 422-322 corridor in previous icing events this season. Hope that changes. Which it will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS offers up at least .75-1.00 QPF before the freezing line clears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 GFS offers up at least .75-1.00 QPF before the freezing line clears. It actually appears like most of it falls before that and we end with sprinkles/drizzle. It really looks ugly as far an ice storm goes. Of course that will change, and all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It actually appears like most of it falls before that and we end with sprinkles/drizzle. It really looks ugly as far an ice storm goes. Of course that will change, and all that. PV has been trending south and more consolidated. This has such beautiful potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 UNV on the 12z GFS verbatim - 12.3" snow -> 0.38" QPF IP -> 0.24" QPF ZR -> 0.02" QPF rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, the model hugging has been a bit silly (if expected). Ensembles still show a very wide range of solutions, and the operational models have not locked onto a solution yet... and even if they had, we're still five days out and a lot will change. I'm excited for the potential. I do like that we're paying close attention to it! Let's just be careful not to "throw in the towel" or "go all in" based on one or two operational model cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, the model hugging has been a bit silly (if expected). Ensembles still show a very wide range of solutions, and the operational models have not locked onto a solution yet... and even if they had, we're still five days out and a lot will change. I'm excited for the potential. I do like that we're paying close attention to it! Let's just be careful not to "throw in the towel" or "go all in" based on one or two operational model cycles. Good post Mallow....This is going to be a real active week coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looking at various sites and forums, most seem to have hedged towards rain in SE PA for next week's mid-week storm. Not sure what the Euro showed. I still think it's to early to call anything at this pt. Many have suggested and rightly so, how will early storms impact the later storms and most of all what does the PV do (stay consolidated or split). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 But it is an exciting pattern for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 UNV on the 12z GFS verbatim - 12.3" snow -> 0.38" QPF IP -> 0.24" QPF ZR -> 0.02" QPF rain for which storm, 4/5th? for that date has MDT about 3" snow, .24 frza and 1.04 rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 But it is an exciting pattern for sure. It is, and I think I cash in on at least one of these waves... but the pragmatist in me always is looking for how it could go wrong and it disturbs me that a few runs now are showing the perfect screw job...the Monday wave stays south, Tues/wed goes north, then next weekend stays southeast. I could definitely see that as it fits with the snowfall distribution so far this winter, either southeast PA or northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Looking at various sites and forums, most seem to have hedged towards rain in SE PA for next week's mid-week storm. Not sure what the Euro showed. I still think it's to early to call anything at this pt. Many have suggested and rightly so, how will early storms impact the later storms and most of all what does the PV do (stay consolidated or split). It's a little warmer than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It's a little warmer than the 00z run. TY Mallow for the update. Well let us hope for a better future outcome so that we can get a couple of snowstorms through here rather than rain (or even worse ice). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Yeah, the model hugging has been a bit silly (if expected). Ensembles still show a very wide range of solutions, and the operational models have not locked onto a solution yet... and even if they had, we're still five days out and a lot will change. I'm excited for the potential. I do like that we're paying close attention to it! Let's just be careful not to "throw in the towel" or "go all in" based on one or two operational model cycles. I'm going to go all in and throw in all my towels, that way I have all the bases covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Ice photos of the Susky can be seen here. I'll try to get a overhead shot from my window this afternoon but I'm in a meeting all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm going to go all in and throw in all my towels, that way I have all the bases covered. bah humbug It is, and I think I cash in on at least one of these waves... but the pragmatist in me always is looking for how it could go wrong and it disturbs me that a few runs now are showing the perfect screw job...the Monday wave stays south, Tues/wed goes north, then next weekend stays southeast. I could definitely see that as it fits with the snowfall distribution so far this winter, either southeast PA or northwest. Should be an interesting weekend seeing what the models do... I was just looking at the CMC and noticed the storms going every which way....except the bullseye. Canderson nice river pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I'm going to go all in and throw in all my towels, that way I have all the bases covered. Good move Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is not good! Saved this pix. Be interested to see how they compare Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Was the EURO an ice storm again? Mixed signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Was the EURO an ice storm again? Mixed signals. Yeah, and it's also really insistent on us all getting lots of snow next weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Was the EURO an ice storm again? Mixed signals. for Wednesday? at least to start yes... has surface temps start below freezing and rises to about 36/37... I still think it warms the surface too easily... rainfall rates not as heavy as GFS which would allow for better accretion of ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Is Monday's system hitting south of us, DC/Balt folks only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Unless I indicate otherwise, I'm referring to the 2/4-5 event in my posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 MDT has essentially seen a 20 degree temp rise today. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Writing's on the wall for a storm to cut well west. Clock is ticking on winter and it's ticking loudly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ^Something I would write^ In all seriousness I HIGHLY DOUBT north of a SEG to UNV line see much plain rain from this. Prbly lots of sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Courtesy of Mid-Atlantic Forum...snow depth after Feb 8-9 storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 MDT has essentially seen a 20 degree temp rise today. Pretty impressive. Got that beat handily...from -1.6 to +29.5...31.1-degree rise from morning low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 FWIW (not a whole helluva lot) the Sun night/Mon wave is way north on the good ol' 84 hr NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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