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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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Yeah, the model hugging has been a bit silly (if expected). Ensembles still show a very wide range of solutions, and the operational models have not locked onto a solution yet... and even if they had, we're still five days out and a lot will change.

 

I'm excited for the potential. I do like that we're paying close attention to it! Let's just be careful not to "throw in the towel" or "go all in" based on one or two operational model cycles. ;)

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Yeah, the model hugging has been a bit silly (if expected). Ensembles still show a very wide range of solutions, and the operational models have not locked onto a solution yet... and even if they had, we're still five days out and a lot will change.

 

I'm excited for the potential. I do like that we're paying close attention to it! Let's just be careful not to "throw in the towel" or "go all in" based on one or two operational model cycles. ;)

Good post Mallow....This is going to be a real active week coming up. :popcorn:

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Looking at various sites and forums, most seem to have hedged towards rain in SE PA for next week's mid-week storm. Not sure what the Euro showed. I still think it's to early to call anything at this pt. Many have suggested and rightly so, how will early storms impact the later storms and most of all what does the PV do (stay consolidated or split).

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But it is an exciting pattern for sure.

It is, and I think I cash in on at least one of these waves... but the pragmatist in me always is looking for how it could go wrong and it disturbs me that a few runs now are showing the perfect screw job...the Monday wave stays south, Tues/wed goes north, then next weekend stays southeast.  I could definitely see that as it fits with the snowfall distribution so far this winter, either southeast PA or northwest. 

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Looking at various sites and forums, most seem to have hedged towards rain in SE PA for next week's mid-week storm. Not sure what the Euro showed. I still think it's to early to call anything at this pt. Many have suggested and rightly so, how will early storms impact the later storms and most of all what does the PV do (stay consolidated or split).

 

It's a little warmer than the 00z run.

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Yeah, the model hugging has been a bit silly (if expected). Ensembles still show a very wide range of solutions, and the operational models have not locked onto a solution yet... and even if they had, we're still five days out and a lot will change.

 

I'm excited for the potential. I do like that we're paying close attention to it! Let's just be careful not to "throw in the towel" or "go all in" based on one or two operational model cycles. ;)

I'm going to go all in and throw in all my towels, that way I have all the bases covered. 

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I'm going to go all in and throw in all my towels, that way I have all the bases covered. 

bah humbug ;)

 

It is, and I think I cash in on at least one of these waves... but the pragmatist in me always is looking for how it could go wrong and it disturbs me that a few runs now are showing the perfect screw job...the Monday wave stays south, Tues/wed goes north, then next weekend stays southeast.  I could definitely see that as it fits with the snowfall distribution so far this winter, either southeast PA or northwest. 

Should be an interesting weekend seeing what the models do...

I was just looking at the CMC and noticed the storms going every which way....except the bullseye.

 

Canderson nice river pics!

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Was the EURO an ice storm again? Mixed signals.

for Wednesday? at least to start yes... has surface temps start below freezing and rises to about 36/37... I still think it warms the surface too easily... rainfall rates not as heavy as GFS which would allow for better accretion of ice

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