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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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So have we all given up now on the Feb 5 storm?? How about some overnight analysis on that storm first?

I'd like to hear about both, frankly. 

 

PhillyWx.com has some analysis and if you poke around the Philly and Mid-Atlantic forums you can sort of get an idea for our area. There's this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/?p=2702315

 

BTW, one note, the 8-9 storm is being referred to as "the unicorn storm" so if you see that referenced, that's what they are talking about.

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This is still way out. No big deal on the models jumping back and forth. Not real concerned till this weekend. 

I agree... it is certainly exciting that there is consistency from run to run of threats but no use getting overly excited about the two potential big events next week just yet on a run to run basis

 

0z Euro still looks to me like over running snow to ice event early week then shows huge snow hit late week... with so many waves to pass through the region before the event late next week who knows how well the models are handling things that far out but at least it is not here one run gone the next... I think it will be interesting to see high temps and overnight lows the next two days to see how much of a fight the cold air already in place is going to give with the "warmer" air pushing north for this weekend... I will likely lose nearly all of my remaining snow pack today with the sun but I am curious to see how temps respond at the surface where there is a much deeper current snow pack

 

with the low of 2 that now makes 13 days in the month of January with a daily low of below 10 degrees at MDT... most on record... currently 11th coldest average temp... could move to 10th after today... but slightly warmer day tomorrow could put it back to 11th at worst... truely an impressive month

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I agree... it is certainly exciting that there is consistency from run to run of threats but no use getting overly excited about the two potential big events next week just yet on a run to run basis

 

0z Euro still looks to me like over running snow to ice event early week then shows huge snow hit late week... with so many waves to pass through the region before the event late next week who knows how well the models are handling things that far out but at least it is not here one run gone the next... I think it will be interesting to see high temps and overnight lows the next two days to see how much of a fight the cold air already in place is going to give with the "warmer" air pushing north for this weekend... I will likely lose nearly all of my remaining snow pack today with the sun but I am curious to see how temps respond at the surface where there is a much deeper current snow pack

 

with the low of 2 that now makes 13 days in the month of January with a daily low of below 10 degrees at MDT... most on record... currently 11th coldest average temp... could move to 10th after today... but slightly warmer day tomorrow could put it back to 11th at worst... truely an impressive month

Great post. I have a feeling we are all going to feel like we've been tracking this thing for a month by the time it gets here. 

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-2° again this morning.  Today is the 9th day in January with a reading at or below 0°.  06z GFS looks like a nasty snow-sleet-freezing rain situation for Central PA on the 4-5th.  Lots of moisture...near 1.8" LE.

how far back do your records go? curious to see how lows for this month compare to January 2003/2004, 1994, etc for days with readings below 0 for State College area

 

I know Pittsburgh has had 5 days below 0 and that is their most since 6 in 1994

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how far back do your records go? curious to see how lows for this month compare to January 2003/2004, 1994, etc for days with readings below 0 for State College area

 

I know Pittsburgh has had 5 days below 0 and that is their most since 6 in 1994

I just moved to Bellefonte in January 2012 and lost my data from winter 2012-13 so I don't have much of a record. Definitely an impressive month though.  The KUNV records won't be as impressive...I think at least 4 of my days at or below zero failed to reach that threshold at the airport.

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I just moved to Bellefonte in January 2012 and lost my data from winter 2012-13 so I don't have much of a record. Definitely an impressive month though.  The KUNV records won't be as impressive...I think at least 4 of my days at or below zero failed to reach that threshold at the airport.

JB has been making a fuss the past few days about KUNV reading higher than Walker Building/etc... he seems to think it needs recalibrated because it shouldnt be running higher in an open field than readings in downtown State College

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JB has been making a fuss the past few days about KUNV reading higher than Walker Building/etc... he seems to think it needs recalibrated because it shouldnt be running higher in an open field than readings in downtown State College

Its reading the other morning was a bit suspect...on a breezy morning it should run close to surrounding stations and it was 4-6° higher than most everything else in the area. On good radiational cooling nights, however, it usually runs 5-15° warmer than Bellefonte or other outlying areas due to its position. The airport sits at 1225-1250', while being almost completely surrounded by elevations from 1000-1100', so the cold air drains away.  One morning in November it was 21° warmer at UNV than at my place at 860' in Bellefonte.

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...SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHIS POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLYWEAKEN AS IT ENTERS A FLAT MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER FLORIDA. THEMODELS FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE DISPLAYED SOME VARIATION IN THEFORWARD SPEED OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF ACCELERATED IN ITS 00ZRUN...BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL CONSENSUS. THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET CLUSTER VERY WELL AND THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLYFASTER. THE CANADIAN IS NOW THE LONE SLOWER MEMBER OF THEOPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS SHOW LITTLESUPPORT FOR THE CANADIAN.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd

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