NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Canadian is much better. Full on smack down this run. So I heard...coastal hugger. That's basically the dream track for central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z GFS still showing good snow for the entire state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is still way out. No big deal on the models jumping back and forth. Not real concerned till this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z GFS still showing good snow for the entire state It has UNV getting above freezing between 850 and 750 mb by 00z on the 5th. About 0.2" fall as snow with the rest falling as sleet or freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 It has UNV getting above freezing between 850 and 750 mb by 00z on the 5th. About 0.2" fall as snow with the rest falling as sleet or freezing rain. So it'd be the second biggest storm of the season so far. Sounds good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 0z GGEM still looks nice. Secondary pops right around Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Any ensemble news? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 down to 2 here at the house... Harrisburg hit 4 at 2am for a new record low... now 5 at MDT edit: Official low at MDT was 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 down to 2 here at the house... Harrisburg hit 4 at 2am for a new record low... now 5 at MDT 3 down here in the flatland and 5 here at work Saturday looks like rain to me. Feb 4/5 looks like it starts as snow/ice then goes to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Can somene provide some analysis from the overnight model runs for the day 8-9 storm? Thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Lns hit -1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 -2 here in Carlisle. Good radiation night here. This low is about 0.6 degrees warmer than back during "polar vortex 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Can somene provide some analysis from the overnight model runs for the day 8-9 storm? Thanks... So have we all given up now on the Feb 5 storm?? How about some overnight analysis on that storm first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So have we all given up now on the Feb 5 storm?? How about some overnight analysis on that storm first?Didn't really check temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So have we all given up now on the Feb 5 storm?? How about some overnight analysis on that storm first? I'd like to hear about both, frankly. PhillyWx.com has some analysis and if you poke around the Philly and Mid-Atlantic forums you can sort of get an idea for our area. There's this: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42601-february-mediumlong-range-disco/?p=2702315 BTW, one note, the 8-9 storm is being referred to as "the unicorn storm" so if you see that referenced, that's what they are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Didn't really check temps. Its ensembles are east. Also, the 06 GFS is a helluva ice storm for us up here. Yikes. Of course this is going to change about as many times as there are model runs leading up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 So have we all given up now on the Feb 5 storm?? How about some overnight analysis on that storm first? I should have clarified, I had a chance to look at that one before leaving for work. It looked to me like a mixed bag event with more ice than snow or rain (at least in southern PA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 This is still way out. No big deal on the models jumping back and forth. Not real concerned till this weekend. I agree... it is certainly exciting that there is consistency from run to run of threats but no use getting overly excited about the two potential big events next week just yet on a run to run basis 0z Euro still looks to me like over running snow to ice event early week then shows huge snow hit late week... with so many waves to pass through the region before the event late next week who knows how well the models are handling things that far out but at least it is not here one run gone the next... I think it will be interesting to see high temps and overnight lows the next two days to see how much of a fight the cold air already in place is going to give with the "warmer" air pushing north for this weekend... I will likely lose nearly all of my remaining snow pack today with the sun but I am curious to see how temps respond at the surface where there is a much deeper current snow pack with the low of 2 that now makes 13 days in the month of January with a daily low of below 10 degrees at MDT... most on record... currently 11th coldest average temp... could move to 10th after today... but slightly warmer day tomorrow could put it back to 11th at worst... truely an impressive month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I agree... it is certainly exciting that there is consistency from run to run of threats but no use getting overly excited about the two potential big events next week just yet on a run to run basis 0z Euro still looks to me like over running snow to ice event early week then shows huge snow hit late week... with so many waves to pass through the region before the event late next week who knows how well the models are handling things that far out but at least it is not here one run gone the next... I think it will be interesting to see high temps and overnight lows the next two days to see how much of a fight the cold air already in place is going to give with the "warmer" air pushing north for this weekend... I will likely lose nearly all of my remaining snow pack today with the sun but I am curious to see how temps respond at the surface where there is a much deeper current snow pack with the low of 2 that now makes 13 days in the month of January with a daily low of below 10 degrees at MDT... most on record... currently 11th coldest average temp... could move to 10th after today... but slightly warmer day tomorrow could put it back to 11th at worst... truely an impressive month Great post. I have a feeling we are all going to feel like we've been tracking this thing for a month by the time it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 -2° again this morning. Today is the 9th day in January with a reading at or below 0°. 06z GFS looks like a nasty snow-sleet-freezing rain situation for Central PA on the 4-5th. Lots of moisture...near 1.8" LE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Great post. I have a feeling we are all going to feel like we've been tracking this thing for a month by the time it gets here.Actually 2 months....Jan & Feb. :-)1 degree here this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Great post. I have a feeling we are all going to feel like we've been tracking this thing for a month by the time it gets here. thats exactly what i said to my wife last night. Remember the week leading up to Hurricane Sandy? seemed like we were all over that for a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 -2° again this morning. Today is the 9th day in January with a reading at or below 0°. 06z GFS looks like a nasty snow-sleet-freezing rain situation for Central PA on the 4-5th. Lots of moisture...near 1.8" LE. how far back do your records go? curious to see how lows for this month compare to January 2003/2004, 1994, etc for days with readings below 0 for State College area I know Pittsburgh has had 5 days below 0 and that is their most since 6 in 1994 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Great post. I have a feeling we are all going to feel like we've been tracking this thing for a month by the time it gets here. Add in the need to read scores of pages about Bismarckian Germany, the post-WW2 Red Scare, and write a commentary on McCarthyism and you've got yourself the longest week ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 how far back do your records go? curious to see how lows for this month compare to January 2003/2004, 1994, etc for days with readings below 0 for State College area I know Pittsburgh has had 5 days below 0 and that is their most since 6 in 1994 I just moved to Bellefonte in January 2012 and lost my data from winter 2012-13 so I don't have much of a record. Definitely an impressive month though. The KUNV records won't be as impressive...I think at least 4 of my days at or below zero failed to reach that threshold at the airport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 I just moved to Bellefonte in January 2012 and lost my data from winter 2012-13 so I don't have much of a record. Definitely an impressive month though. The KUNV records won't be as impressive...I think at least 4 of my days at or below zero failed to reach that threshold at the airport. JB has been making a fuss the past few days about KUNV reading higher than Walker Building/etc... he seems to think it needs recalibrated because it shouldnt be running higher in an open field than readings in downtown State College Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 Add in the need to read scores of pages about Bismarckian Germany, the post-WW2 Red Scare, and write a commentary on McCarthyism and you've got yourself the longest week ever. Ha...remember those days. We dipped down to -6.3 this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 JB has been making a fuss the past few days about KUNV reading higher than Walker Building/etc... he seems to think it needs recalibrated because it shouldnt be running higher in an open field than readings in downtown State College I heard about that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 JB has been making a fuss the past few days about KUNV reading higher than Walker Building/etc... he seems to think it needs recalibrated because it shouldnt be running higher in an open field than readings in downtown State College Its reading the other morning was a bit suspect...on a breezy morning it should run close to surrounding stations and it was 4-6° higher than most everything else in the area. On good radiational cooling nights, however, it usually runs 5-15° warmer than Bellefonte or other outlying areas due to its position. The airport sits at 1225-1250', while being almost completely surrounded by elevations from 1000-1100', so the cold air drains away. One morning in November it was 21° warmer at UNV than at my place at 860' in Bellefonte. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2014 Share Posted January 30, 2014 ...SHORTWAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA THURSDAY/FRIDAY...PREFERENCE: BLEND OF 00Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF/UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGETHIS POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLYWEAKEN AS IT ENTERS A FLAT MEAN RIDGE POSITION OVER FLORIDA. THEMODELS FROM RUN TO RUN HAVE DISPLAYED SOME VARIATION IN THEFORWARD SPEED OF THE TROUGH. THE ECMWF ACCELERATED IN ITS 00ZRUN...BRINGING IT MORE IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL CONSENSUS. THEGFS/ECMWF/UKMET CLUSTER VERY WELL AND THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLYFASTER. THE CANADIAN IS NOW THE LONE SLOWER MEMBER OF THEOPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS...AND THE 00Z GEFS MEMBERS SHOW LITTLESUPPORT FOR THE CANADIAN. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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