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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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I'll just leave this here :snowing:

 

 

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1103 AM EST WED JAN 29 2014

VALID 12Z SAT FEB 01 2014 - 12Z WED FEB 05 2014


...HEAVY SNOW & ICE POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID
ATLANTIC & NORTHEAST...


THE MODEL SPREAD INCREASED AT THE MEDIUM RANGE DURING THE PAST FEW
DATA CYCLES. THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY IS ESPECIALLY TROUBLESOME NOW
THAT THE FLOW REGIME IS CONDUCIVE TO MUCH WETTER STORM SYSTEMS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE ECENS AND CMCE
MEANS WERE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RELY UPON FOR A SYNOPTIC BACKBONE TO
THE PATTERN. THAT PATTERN FEATURES A RETURN TO DRIER, MEAN RIDGING
IN THE WEST--DESPITE THE SPLITTING OF ENERGY INTO THE
SOUTHWEST--AND A BROAD, MEAN BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE KEY TO WHETHER MOST OF THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATIONS FALLS EAST OR WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS IS THE
TIMING OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF STATES. THE
ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE IS FAIRLY SPLIT WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT
SIGNIFICANT PHASING WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY OCCURS OVER
THE MIDWEST. FOR NOW, IT SEEMS MOST PRUDENT TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HAZARD IMPACTS ACROSS THE RANGE OF REGIONS.


CISCO
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Quite a bit of potential over the next week. Per the GFS ensembles, there are at least four possible waves we'll need to track. Most have been focusing on wave 4.

 

Wave 1 (Saturday evening) - There is general agreement that this will be a "warmer" storm, and that Central PA will get well into the warm sector. Also, precipitation will probably be rather light with it. However, there are hints that it may not be as warm/far north as expected, so it can't  be completely discounted yet.

 

Wave 2 (Sunday evening) - On the tail end of the front from wave 1, at least one ensemble develops a second wave that delivers a nice, quick dump of snow for most of Central PA (mixing issues far south/east).

 

Wave 3 (Monday evening or Tuesday morning) - Most of the ensembles have this storm in some form, and many show a favorable track for Central PA snow. There is a rather wide spread, though, and there are multiple members that either show a track too far north (warm) or too far south (no precip), and perhaps a member or two that doesn't even really develop the storm.

 

Wave 4 (Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning) - Again, most of the ensembles show this storm in some form. Many of the ensembles are snow to ice. Some are all snow (and a lot of it). At least one only shows a bit of snow. And a couple are probably even snow-ice-rain, especially for the southeastern parts of the region.

 

 

There is clearly a very wide range of possibilities for the upcoming storms, but the overall pattern is not unfavorable for us, and the way I look at it, with so many potential storms, we should at least manage to get something out of one of them, right!? :P

This usually means go to bed early these next couple nights because the next week most of us will unfortunately be up late waiting on the models.  :popcorn:

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Easy man I just agreed with you about the cleaning up thing lol. And the storm we are referencing is a week away. Get too invested is a sure promise of heartbreak.

 

Patterns man. This is not one of these storms that is going to fall off the map. Most of, if not all of PA should get a decent storm next week. Ice or snow, still to hard to tell. 

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Quite a bit of potential over the next week. Per the GFS ensembles, there are at least four possible waves we'll need to track. Most have been focusing on wave 4.

 

Wave 1 (Saturday evening) - There is general agreement that this will be a "warmer" storm, and that Central PA will get well into the warm sector. Also, precipitation will probably be rather light with it. However, there are hints that it may not be as warm/far north as expected, so it can't  be completely discounted yet.

 

Wave 2 (Sunday evening) - On the tail end of the front from wave 1, at least one ensemble develops a second wave that delivers a nice, quick dump of snow for most of Central PA (mixing issues far south/east).

 

Wave 3 (Monday evening or Tuesday morning) - Most of the ensembles have this storm in some form, and many show a favorable track for Central PA snow. There is a rather wide spread, though, and there are multiple members that either show a track too far north (warm) or too far south (no precip), and perhaps a member or two that doesn't even really develop the storm.

 

Wave 4 (Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning) - Again, most of the ensembles show this storm in some form. Many of the ensembles are snow to ice. Some are all snow (and a lot of it). At least one only shows a bit of snow. And a couple are probably even snow-ice-rain, especially for the southeastern parts of the region.

 

 

There is clearly a very wide range of possibilities for the upcoming storms, but the overall pattern is not unfavorable for us, and the way I look at it, with so many potential storms, we should at least manage to get something out of one of them, right!? :P

I think wave 5 Feb 8-10 has potential

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yes but not living up here, I was in the Manchester MD area, and that was simply amazing.  three 20"+ storms in one season, and in a 11 day stretch from Jan 31 to Feb 10, 4", 7", 27" and 28".  I will be paying for that forever probably. 

What a year.  I had 90" here in Western Adams and I know areas to my south got lots more.  100" is quite a feat for these parts.  Schuykill County will score for you sooner or later.

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