canderson Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 March gonna be rockin', sez AccuWx: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/spring-outlook-six-more-weeks/22312537 Sweet, I'll be able to watch some live baseball around the area then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06&fhr=165¶m=200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht&size=medium just sweet look at those highs to the north! Great setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 March gonna be rockin', sez AccuWx: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/spring- outlook-six-more-weeks/22312537 Isn't he the same guy that predicted a mild winter with below normal snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Sweet, I'll be able to watch some live baseball around the area then! What's the Susky look like up there? There are still 2 small open channels down here. (as of yesterday) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 just noticed the record low for Harrisburg for tomorrow is 6... certainly breakable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Sweet, I'll be able to watch some live baseball around the area then! Isn't he the same guy that predicted a mild winter with below normal snowfall? Him and 50 million other people. But there's a lot of support for this out there from other mets. A lot are expecting the Polar Vortex to break down very slowly, from what I am reading. As long as we don't get snow in April, I'm fine with this. The trend since November has been quite cold, so it makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ImageFourPanel.php?model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=06&fhr=165¶m=200_wnd_ht|500_vort_ht|1000_500_thick|850_temp_ht&size=medium just sweet look at those highs to the north! Great setup. Agreed. In this pattern where there is little in the way of blocking and systems are extremely progressive, your best bet is to hope for some suppressing highs up north, an active southern stream down south, and strong confluence in-between. As MAG said a few days ago, the upcoming pattern is weird, but promising at the same time because the above factors coming together. One thing is for sure, this pattern will giveth and taketh away incredibly quickly, depending on where you lie in regards to the storm tracks. These southern storms will be very wavy and subject to the strength of the suppressing highs to the north. I foresee many weenie's jumping off cliffs, the clamoring back to the ledges depending on what OP shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Agreed. In this pattern where there is little in the way of blocking and systems are extremely progressive, your best bet is to hope for some suppressing highs up north, an active southern stream down south, and strong confluence in-between. As MAG said a few days ago, the upcoming pattern is weird, but promising at the same time because the above factors coming together. One thing is for sure, this pattern will giveth and taketh away incredibly quickly, depending on where you lie in regards to the storm tracks. These southern storms will be very wavy and subject to the strength of the suppressing highs to the north. I foresee many weenie's jumping off cliffs, the clamoring back to the ledges depending on what OP shows. could not have said it any better. Models will change with each run what looked good at 6z will probably be a rainstorm or suppression at 12z and then back to a great look at 18z to nothing at 0z. :-) it will be agonizing maybe disappointment to extremely happy for many people the next couple of weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm fully expecting suppressed storms from this pattern. State College north should not get hopes too high with seasonal trend. Time to just wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 could not have said it any better. Models will change with each run what looked good at 6z will probably be a rainstorm or suppression at 12z and then back to a great look at 18z to nothing at 0z. :-) it will be agonizing maybe disappointment to extremely happy for many people the next couple of weeks. Like there ever is an over reaction to the models - please..... I don't understand how people can view a model every 6 hours and their attitude changes each and every time (from hyped up to really down) knowing that the models very rarely track something accurately until perhaps a few days before the event. A model is only as accurate as the inputs into the system which we know are not the best until all factors are in good rich data collection zones. Let us look at the Euro that went from a Lakes Cutter (for a few times in a row) to a system that is hitting Richmond and none of PA. Add to this the instability of the pattern as it transitions from one type to another and you have another variable. I say just wait and then decide a few days before the event to either jump up and down with joy or then jump the ledge if that is your preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 What's the Susky look like up there? There are still 2 small open channels down here. (as of yesterday) Solid ice. I'll try to get a photo today or tomorrow morning and post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I'm fully expecting suppressed storms from this pattern. State College north should not get hopes too high with seasonal trend. Time to just wait and see. But the pattern in February isn't progged to be anything like it has been this month. That is kind of a vintage post of yours from past years. You are being pessimistic for no good reason. Could you be right? Sure, but it's just as much if not more likely you will get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Solid ice. I'll try to get a photo today or tomorrow morning and post. Great, thanks! I probably won't get down again until Saturday. My wife said there was a noticeable difference when she was there yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Like there ever is an over reaction to the models - please..... I don't understand how people can view a model every 6 hours and their attitude changes each and every time (from hyped up to really down) knowing that the models very rarely track something accurately until perhaps a few days before the event. A model is only as accurate as the inputs into the system which we know are not the best until all factors are in good rich data collection zones. Let us look at the Euro that went from a Lakes Cutter (for a few times in a row) to a system that is hitting Richmond and none of PA. Add to this the instability of the pattern as it transitions from one type to another and you have another variable. I say just wait and then decide a few days before the event to either jump up and down with joy or then jump the ledge if that is your preference. Great post. Basically all we know is there's a decent pattern coming up that is complicated and models will bounce around. There should also be multiple opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 But the pattern in February isn't progged to be anything like it has been this month. That is kind of a vintage post of yours from past years. You are being pessimistic for no good reason. Could you be right? Sure, but it's just as much if not more likely you will get snow. I can see where he's coming from - it's not just a seasonal trend, but one that's basically 3-4 years running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 The 12z gfs is surely not suppressed for next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Beautiful run of the 12z GFS...if you're north of Binghamton. For us, it has the makings of an ice storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I can see where he's coming from - it's not just a seasonal trend, but one that's basically 3-4 years running. But if the predicted pattern is different, does that really matter? Plus... - Where was this seasonal trend last year when UNV and IPT had double the snow of MDT, LNS, and MDT? - Where was this seasonal trend in 2011-2012, when no one was getting snow and UNV only managed 19 due to two overperforming clippers? - Where was this seasonal trend in 2010-2011, when UNV and IPT again had double the snow of MDT, LNS, and MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Beautiful run of the 12z GFS...if you're north of Binghamton. For us, it has the makings of an ice storm... 1040mb high moves into central US after that system moves out of the east... that will bring another shot of really cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Beautiful run of the 12z GFS...if you're north of Binghamton. For us, it has the makings of an ice storm... Really does. Classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 But if the predicted pattern is different, does that really matter? Plus... - Where was this seasonal trend last year when UNV and IPT had double the snow of MDT, LNS, and MDT? - Where was this seasonal trend in 2011-2012, when no one was getting snow and UNV only managed 19 due to two overperforming clippers? - Where was this seasonal trend in 2010-2011, when UNV and IPT again had double the snow of MDT, LNS, and MDT? Thank you. I was going to say much the same thing, but needed to step away first. It was unwarranted negativity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Thank you. I was going to say much the same thing, but needed to step away first. It was unwarranted negativity. I feel like I am a practicing cognitive therapist around here Although we're not near as bad as some of the other forums...and I love our group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Is anyone having issues with the board? It takes a while to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I feel like I am a practicing cognitive therapist around here Although we're not near as bad as some of the other forums...and I love our group. lol. Lets hope the GEFS continues to show the more southern solutions and vehemently disagrees with the OP. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I dropped to 2 at the house right after the cloud cover cleared around 6am... could really feel the cold air sinking down the hillside... as soon as I got on 81 and crossed the bridge the temp jumped up to 9 in my car lol wow isn't something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 lol. Lets hope the GEFS continues to show the more southern solutions and vehemently disagrees with the OP. Nut I could care less what any op run shows outside 100 hours but I was disturbed when the 6z GEFS shifted well north for the first time. They had been a rock for days. 12z GEFS shifted back south a tick but still north of 0z or any previous runs. Implies snow from central PA northward but not a good trend, and especially not for me. I have a bad feeling I am just in the screw zone this year. I have been just barely too far northwest for the coastal systems and just a little too far southeast for the more northern track systems earlier in the season. I have about 15" while everyone around me in every direction is at least above 20. My fear with this upcoming pattern would be for the more suppressed weaker systems to slide too far south and for the more amped systems to cut and end up too far north, keeping the seasonal snow hole intact for east central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 pretty strong signal showing up for a "colder" system in the Feb 9-11 period. My gut says the 4-6th storm our issue is rain vs snow and the Feb 9-11 our issue will be does the storm track close enough to the coast to get us into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 GGEM is nice weather porn for most of PA next week...FWIW, probably not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 I could care less what any op run shows outside 100 hours but I was disturbed when the 6z GEFS shifted well north for the first time. They had been a rock for days. 12z GEFS shifted back south a tick but still north of 0z or any previous runs. Implies snow from central PA northward but not a good trend, and especially not for me. I have a bad feeling I am just in the screw zone this year. I have been just barely too far northwest for the coastal systems and just a little too far southeast for the more northern track systems earlier in the season. I have about 15" while everyone around me in every direction is at least above 20. My fear with this upcoming pattern would be for the more suppressed weaker systems to slide too far south and for the more amped systems to cut and end up too far north, keeping the seasonal snow hole intact for east central PA. Off topic but in 09-10 did you hit 100" ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 29, 2014 Share Posted January 29, 2014 Quite a bit of potential over the next week. Per the GFS ensembles, there are at least four possible waves we'll need to track. Most have been focusing on wave 4. Wave 1 (Saturday evening) - There is general agreement that this will be a "warmer" storm, and that Central PA will get well into the warm sector. Also, precipitation will probably be rather light with it. However, there are hints that it may not be as warm/far north as expected, so it can't be completely discounted yet. Wave 2 (Sunday evening) - On the tail end of the front from wave 1, at least one ensemble develops a second wave that delivers a nice, quick dump of snow for most of Central PA (mixing issues far south/east). Wave 3 (Monday evening or Tuesday morning) - Most of the ensembles have this storm in some form, and many show a favorable track for Central PA snow. There is a rather wide spread, though, and there are multiple members that either show a track too far north (warm) or too far south (no precip), and perhaps a member or two that doesn't even really develop the storm. Wave 4 (Tuesday evening or Wednesday morning) - Again, most of the ensembles show this storm in some form. Many of the ensembles are snow to ice. Some are all snow (and a lot of it). At least one only shows a bit of snow. And a couple are probably even snow-ice-rain, especially for the southeastern parts of the region. There is clearly a very wide range of possibilities for the upcoming storms, but the overall pattern is not unfavorable for us, and the way I look at it, with so many potential storms, we should at least manage to get something out of one of them, right!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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