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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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Way too far to start getting excited.

 

In less vague terms: 130hr+.

it also breaks down the pattern like the 0z Euro did, but just a couple days later... both 0z Euro and 12z GFS allow that Tuesday/Wednesday system next week to cut right through the Lakes... mainly rain event for many of us

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welp so much for my though of temps dropping... MDT now at 33 breaking the streak of hours below 32

 

 

it also breaks down the pattern like the 0z Euro did, but just a couple days later... both 0z Euro and 12z GFS allow that Tuesday/Wednesday system next week to cut right through the Lakes... mainly rain event for many of us

You gonna have any good news for us today? :snowing:

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it also breaks down the pattern like the 0z Euro did, but just a couple days later... both 0z Euro and 12z GFS allow that Tuesday/Wednesday system next week to cut right through the Lakes... mainly rain event for many of us

Up here it's an icy hell, except for 2/4-5 which does go over to rain. But I've seen enough of those sorts of storms to be very skeptical of any warmups to 40 degree rain for my backyard. 

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GFS is all "hey, central PA, have a moderate snow event maybe this weekend" in happy Barney voice.

 

Euro is all "I pee 45 degree rain on all of your fool heads dis weekend" in evil Boris voice. 

then Euro follows with a much more favorable for messy conditions track for 2/4-2/5... runs low more along Mason-Dixon line compared to into the Great Lakes from 0z... icy for many

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Hopefully the ECM's losing streak continues.

to me it really looks like the models want to change the pattern after this cold air moves out later this week, but are not exactly sure what to do... we may not get a good idea of how this weekend will play out until maybe at least Thursday... then the uncertainty in how things will pan out this weekend will cause the system next week to likely go all over the place over the next few days worth of model runs...

 

Euro skill score numbers are still better than all other models so while there hasn't been a particular model handling all events here well, cant really say it is a big loser this winter either... and I am not saying that to single you out or anything but I just dont understand the Euro bashing that I have seen in some of the other forums lately... is it because it just hasnt locked in on a big storm several days out like we have been used to seeing the past few years?

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