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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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Not this **** again... Cold is ok, but not these dang wind chills.

 

gfs_windchill_ma_25.png

to me it feels like a repeat of the prior cold days earlier in January would be worse this time around... we have had a longer duration cold that will cause more pipe freezing than before... the earlier event was brutal cold but also didnt last more than 48 hours... I dont mind 0 and calm winds... 0 and 10-15mph+ forget it

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to me it feels like a repeat of the prior cold days earlier in January would be worse this time around... we have had a longer duration cold that will cause more pipe freezing than before... the earlier event was brutal cold but also didnt last more than 48 hours... I dont mind 0 and calm winds... 0 and 10-15mph+ forget it

 

The coldest air as modelled right now is really just Tuesday and Wednesday though. After that, temperatures should moderate back up at least into the 20s.

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The coldest air as modelled right now is really just Tuesday and Wednesday though. After that, temperatures should moderate back up at least into the 20s.

I meant before most of the state at least had readings in the 30s/40s/50s a few days before and a few days after... we now have had a number of days with lows in single digits to teens before the coldest air arrives tuesday and wednesday and will only see temps climb into the 20s and maybe a day or two of 30s in the next few days after

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Ctp just updated and still kept my area in 2-4 with advisory. I don't get it. The band that totally missed us earlier was supposed to drop 1-3" then we might get another inch from the snowshowers this afternoon. That band left nothing so where is the 2-4 coming from??? I get a bust, I busted too although I was never going 2-4 but why put out a new snow forecast now that is obviously not going to verify? Is Ctp usually slow to catch up to trends with now casting?

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Ctp just updated and still kept my area in 2-4 with advisory. I don't get it. The band that totally missed us earlier was supposed to drop 1-3" then we might get another inch from the snowshowers this afternoon. That band left nothing so where is the 2-4 coming from??? I get a bust, I busted too although I was never going 2-4 but why put out a new snow forecast now that is obviously not going to verify? Is Ctp usually slow to catch up to trends with now casting?

they seem to be thinking a decent band with possible whiteout conditions develops along the cold front and pushes eastward late this afternoon/evening... my guess is they are leaving the forecast totals alone until they see how that develops

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Smart man, this is the best way to approach the sight of weather you want (or don't want) on the long range. Last weekend several over on the Philly forum jumped all over the torch the GFS was showing for our Polar Death Vortex week coming up. So, yeah.

I agree, we have witnessed time and time again warm periods getting cooler and shorter in duration as we get closer. No reason to believe this will change with the -epo and some -ao starting to show up as well. We might warm if a storm amplifies and cuts west a day or 2, but sustained warmth through the end of the run like todays 06z GFS seems unlikely at this point.

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they seem to be thinking a decent band with possible whiteout conditions develops along the cold front and pushes eastward late this afternoon/evening... my guess is they are leaving the forecast totals alone until they see how that develops

. I am too Far East for that. My snow was going to come from the bands missing schuykill county. Not sure why. High res models had the snow redeveloping further west and hitting here but the bands keep developing 10 miles east. I had slim hope until this latest batch again skipped over and is developing over Berks county instead. 6z nam also hinted in the east shift so it has some support. It's obviously a bust not sure why nws is dragging it out. There are people in the public that still think 2-4" of snow is coming and are changing plans needlessly. It's not fair to them.

PS. Just looked at the 12z high res to confirm and they all show the reality that the precip shifted east and is missing most of schuykill county. So we have radar, ground reports, and model guidance all confirming nothing is going to happen here and nws still scaring people with an advisory for 2-4". It's crap like this that gives meteorology a bad name they should have dropped the advisory 3 hours ago.

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BGM dropped the WWA for most of its forecast area. Had some flurries earlier but right now it is sunny and 20 degrees. We usually do well with clippers up here but not today!

It makes my point about the superior forecasting of Mt Holly as compared to other nws offices!

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Anyone see the new Euro? Odd pattern out past seven days. Irishrob on philly weather describes it:

 

"euro shows the west based blocking in the NAO regions, with some of that epo hooking up with it. It elongates the PV, drops the main lobe into the 50-50 spot, with a -PNA and SE ridge... crazy pattern verbatim."

 

Never heard of a west based block and 50/50 with a -PNA...

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Anyone see the new Euro? Odd pattern out past seven days. Irishrob on philly weather describes it:

 

"euro shows the west based blocking in the NAO regions, with some of that epo hooking up with it. It elongates the PV, drops the main lobe into the 50-50 spot, with a -PNA and SE ridge... crazy pattern verbatim."

 

Never heard of a west based block and 50/50 with a -PNA...

 

Beyond 120 it is not even worth looking anymore. You get a glimpse and then just are like whatever. You know it will change next run anyways. lol

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I haven't seen a single flake all day in Harrisburg. Downsloping wins the day. The models did a nice job of positioning the "snow hole," but if anything they might have underplayed the drying.


 


Either that or my "coating to an inch" is still coming and I just don't know it.


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