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Central PA and the MD Fringes - January Part III


MAG5035

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Walker Building only shows 48% humidity...

 

Yea pretty dry at KUNV as well with 25F/1F. The sun's out here for now though we'll probably see some light snow over the next several hours.

 

There may be a few heavier squalls later this evening as low-level lapse rates become less stable as colder air moves in at 850 mb ahead of the surface cold front. You can already see those type of features forming over southern MI.

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Yea pretty dry at KUNV as well with 25F/1F. The sun's out here for now though we'll probably see some light snow over the next several hours.

 

There may be a few heavier squalls later this evening as low-level lapse rates become less stable as colder air moves in at 850 mb ahead of the surface cold front. You can already see those type of features forming over southern MI.

Those can throw down some nice surprises every now and then.

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Wondering if this is one of those clippers that gets snow all the way to Stormstown but not UNV.

Doesn't look like much of anything is getting over the Allegheny Weather Knife for awhile.  Bright, sunny day in Bellefonte.  Maybe we get lucky and get a quick half inch in a squall later.

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Pretty much all the major 0z guidance tonight looked kinda ugly for later next weekend (day 8-10 range). Closer look of the GFS wasn't as bad as I thought, an overrunning snow event at 174 that transitions to ice and some rain before cold comes back (followed by another wave of ice/rain/snow in truncation land around D11-12). The European has the same weekend system but more of an ice to rain look to it initially and by 240 we're stuck on the wrong side of the gradient with a major southeast ridge. Euro operational was def the worst looking of the bunch IMO in that 8-10 day timeframe (and probably beyond that) . What's becoming clear is we're going to have a pattern change around this time next week as the big western ridge gets broken down and we transition into a more active pattern with a flatter storm track along the gradient. As I mentioned earlier, any attempt to rout our established cold regime and snowpack is likely to be met with resistance in the form of ice and snow. I would imagine models are probably not even close to resolving what this upcoming pattern change is going to mean in terms of our sensible weather yet given the range, and we easily could be seeing multiple of waves of snow on the models in a few days with a weaker se ridge and lower storm track. It's a high risk/high reward type look to things, that's for sure. 

This is getting a distinct 1994 vibe to it. But then again, as you point out, long-range models are having fits this season. So who knows.

 

Keep in mind, last weekend at this time the long-range models were talking torch for this upcoming week. :facepalm:

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So the GFS in the long range shows 50 degrees on my birthday (February 8th). Too bad it's 348 hours out.

Smart man, this is the best way to approach the sight of weather you want (or don't want) on the long range. Last weekend several over on the Philly forum jumped all over the torch the GFS was showing for our Polar Death Vortex week coming up. So, yeah.

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Getting nervous of a bust here. Nws says 2-4 but only flurries earlier and now the sun is out. Been missing every snow somehow all year so I should expect it. Was thinking I could at least nickel and dime my way to a decent snowcover this week but the snow bands just missed me the other night now this is falling apart and Monday looks north. Trying to stay optimistic but feel snakebit this year. Still only at 15" hope I don't manage to end up well below normal while most if the northeast is above.

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