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Jan 21 Obs thread II


stormtracker

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My guess IAD ends up with 4.5", rates have been unimpressive for the last 3 hours

Seems like it has been just on the verge of getting cranking here in Ashburn......but it hasn't. It has been snowing steadily, but mostly lightly, all day. Will probably end up with 5" or so, which sounds about right. Falls right into low end of those 5-9" forecasts.

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2:10 p.m. update: Snow is falling at a decent clip and accumulating north of I-66, including over much of the District. However, south of I-66 in Virginia, you get into possible “bust” territory, and the snow decreases in intensity. This may well be the pattern for the next several hours. Yes, the snow may expand some to the south, but if you live in southern Fauquier, Stafford and southern Prince William counties, or to the south, your chances of getting more than a couple inches of snow aren’t great.  from CWG

Agreed on that point. I have seen very small snow grains for at least the past 2 hours. It looks like we have nearly 2 inches of snow grains on the grass and maybe a half inch on the road. Well at least it IS snowing. Maybe I can make 3 inches?

 

Models pretty much nailed it early this morning. Radar trends corroborate the models well, from northern and northwestern DCA north to the mason dixon line is where most of the forcing set up and will continue to develop and intensify. Higher elevation helps a lot too. Higher els and maryland should hit 10 plus. NW Washington will also cash in.

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Agree with CWG. Above I66/ Rt 50 and west of I95 north looks like the better place to be.

Agreed. Snow is petering out in PW county. Definitely an underperformer. Will be interesting to compare everyone's final amount of qpf with what was modeled. Like someone said this morning and yesterday, with these coastal transfers it's hard to predict amounts.

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