Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Jan 21 Obs thread II


stormtracker

Recommended Posts

Arboretum 3.9" at 8am this morning.  SOme compaction probably...near there was 4.5" at 8:35...I tacked on maybe 0.2" or so after 8:30....I bet they got near 4.5".  I think DC was a pretty uniform 4-6" with the 5.5" to 6" amounts relegated to north of Van Ness to Tenleytown, etc.  ...i wish AU had a final measurement.  They were very helpful for 2/10/10 when I took an AU/DCA blend.

Up here in Petworth I never measured but there was a solid 5 inches on my deck furniture

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.6k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

part was tongue-in-cheek reverse psychology, but I did want to prepare myself for the possibility that all the good banding would be to my NW, and I would pixie dust my way to another 0.25 to 0.5....Once I started to get attacked for being a debbie downer, I ran with it.  I knew I might be wrong, but didnt want to get too bullish.  I was traumatized after so many busts, and I wasnt sure the models would get the cutoff correct.  Turns out the margin for error for the nightime stuff was pretty big.  If you remember on 2/11/06 and 3/1/09 I was the one who was talkig everyone off the ledge.  Especially 2/11/06 as the RUC has a robust banding signature once the coastal got going.

Yup, I remember those blobs of .1"+ greens centered over DC. The RAP was decent yesterday as well--- it showed pretty well the morphing of band from E-W orientation to more N-S, meeting up with the precip from southern VA. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Got about 4, maybe 5 inches in Salisbury. Very pleased :)

sweet! I told my daughter yesterday late afternoon not to be disheartened, her stuff would come over night and to expect 3-5"

there was a nice area of snow that developed over SE VA I saw around 7-8PM that moved NE right over you guys

congrats.....and you thought it didn't snow in SBY ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yup, I remember those blobs of .1"+ greens centered over DC. The RAP was decent yesterday as well--- it showed pretty well the morphing of band from E-W orientation to more N-S, meeting up with the precip from southern VA. 

 

yep..It was amazingly consistent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was thinking totals should be near 8" for me, and you're pretty close to me I believe.  The last spotter reports I saw though were less and sometimes way less.  Not sure why. 

 

 

I'm seeing close to 8" on east side of Columbia.

 

 

Ok, well between the 3 of us maybe we're not crazy.  The "2 W Elkridge" spotter is one of the closest to me and that one only had 5" at 640pm last night which seems really low. 

 

 

Let me be the fourth person to confirm 8" in east Columbia. That last band was longer and juicier than I expected.

 

Our friend "2 W Elkridge" reported his 24hr snowfall total and it looks like we all were pretty consistent.  

 

2 W ELKRIDGE 8.3 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

 

I'm going with that as my total.  

 

Totals around eastern HoCo seem consistent with that:

...HOWARD COUNTY...

2 W ELKRIDGE 8.3 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 N COLUMBIA 8.0 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 SSE SYKESVILLE 8.0 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 W COLUMBIA 7.7 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

3 SW ELKRIDGE 7.6 630 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

1 SE MARRIOTTSVILLE 7.4 800 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 ESE NORTH LAUREL 7.3 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

1 E COLUMBIA 6.5 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I agree -- IAD's ratio is an absurd 42.5.  I think its snow total is too high and its precipitation total is too low.  Consider these widely varying ratios among the three major area airports from the reported snow and precipitation amounts:

 

DCA: 3.8 inches of snow, 0.18 inches of precipitation, ratio 21.1 to 1.

 

IAD: 8.5 inches of snow, 0.20 inches of precipitation, ratio 42.5 to 1.

 

BWI: 5.3 inches of snow, 0.42 inches of precipitation, ratio 12.6 to 1.

 

Only BWI's numbers look correct. Also, with respect to IAD, I live less than five miles to the east and received only about 5 inches of snow.

DT's on FB honking about the mega-ratios up and down the 95 corridor.  

3. THE snow ratios up north were AMAZING. THROUGH 12AM newark NJ only got 0.40" of liquid and 10 of snow.. a snow ratio of 40:1. LaGuardia in NYC 0.25 liquid 8.1 " snow for a snow ratio of 32:1 ISLIP long Island 0.46" with 9.2" for a snow ratio of 20:1... Bridgeport CT got 0.21" with amounts of 5.5" for a snow ratio of 26:1

 

Anything over 20:1 is probably bogus IMO.  Wind certainly can screw with getting snow into the precip gauge and that's likely what happened yesterday.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

public reports should generally be disregarded, esp for a storm like this. Someone reported 7" from Ian's neighborhood. He had 5"...maybe a tad more. Not sure why LWX accepts these bogus reports from the public.

I may have under measured but 7" is a stretch. I don't think I even got that in grass.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our friend "2 W Elkridge" reported his 24hr snowfall total and it looks like we all were pretty consistent.  

 

2 W ELKRIDGE 8.3 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

 

I'm going with that as my total.  

 

Totals around eastern HoCo seem consistent with that:

...HOWARD COUNTY...

2 W ELKRIDGE 8.3 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 N COLUMBIA 8.0 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 SSE SYKESVILLE 8.0 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 W COLUMBIA 7.7 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

3 SW ELKRIDGE 7.6 630 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

1 SE MARRIOTTSVILLE 7.4 800 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

2 ESE NORTH LAUREL 7.3 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS

1 E COLUMBIA 6.5 700 AM 1/22 COCORAHS 

yeah I was 6+ imby and I'm only 4 miles from Elkridge as the crow flies

I find ever since BWI was chastised for improperly measuring the 12/19/09 bliz, they have gone way conservative to a point of being bad at times, and I think this is one of them

in their defense, I think it was wind related but still too low by 20%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

yeah I was 6+ imby and I'm only 4 miles from Elkridge as the crow flies

I find ever since BWI was chastised for improperly measuring the 12/19/09 bliz, they have gone way conservative to a point of being bad at times, and I think this is one of them

in their defense, I think it was wind related but still too low by 20%

Yeah, BWI has certainly changed over the last couple years to being a bit low always relative to nearby spotters.  I think BWI has actually amended down to 5.1" from 5.3" based on the last couple NWS PNS's and the record event report.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I am melting down to find my liquid now.  I will report it later.  Not sure if I will get all of it since I am relying on whatever snow was captured by the 14" bucket at the end of my deck.

As long as you didn't get much drifting/blowing into that bucket, that will probably work pretty well.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It should at least be able to confirm or deny those wackadoodle 40:1 type ratios.  MN Transplant did a core and got teens:1 ratios which sounds just right.  

I think drifting in the spot it was in was minimal....but hard to say how much was missed by the bucket with wind gust.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I ended up with about 6.5" - that is the best I could estimate based on blowing and drifting. I see a few locations in Purcellville at 7"+ and another at 6.5". I think that 6.5 is the best we did.. we had a long time of Light snow until much later in the day afetra morning burst. We had about 2 hours on and off heavier snow yesterday (about 1"/hr = 2"), about 4 hours of almost moderate snow ( .5" per hour= 2"), and then light snow (sometimes very light) the rest of the time (.25" per hour = 1.5") and then I am sure a few bursts that made up for the additional inch. Started about 7:15 am and ended about 7:30PM..

 

I agree that we maximize snow at night, but it is so much fun to watch fall. I hate it when snow ends. When you see the western side start to move east on radar it is like the snowstorm "jump the shark" moment.

 

Beautiful snow though - I loved not having to worry about mixing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I may have under measured but 7" is a stretch. I don't think I even got that in grass.

 

Mesonistic got around 6.25" in Tenleytown.  you might have gotten 5.5"...If you bumped up to 5.25", I think it would be accurate.  My friend got 5.25" near Petworth and DC teacherman got around 5" in Petworth......at around 200'...you're at just over 200' also , but I think you do a little better on the west side of the park...so 5.25" seems right.  I got 4.5" on my roof and on the ground.  But there is no question I get more latent heat release than you, and don't do as well during the day.

 

EDIT - another friend got around 4.5" in Brookland..and 4.5" NNW of Takoma Park.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mesonistic got around 6.25" in Tenleytown.  you might have gotten 5.5"...If you bumped up to 5.25", I think it would be accurate.  My friend got 5.25" near Petworth and DC teacherman got around 5" in Petworth...at around 200'...you're at just over 200' also , but I think you do a little better on the west side of the park...so 5.25" seems right.  I got 4.5" on my roof and on the ground.  But there is no question I get more latent heat release than you, and don't do as well during the day.

My main thought is a lot of people measure in the grass even though NWS says not to. I think that is a big part of the differing numbers. I prob did get more than .5" in that superband though so I may be low.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

not sure.  just disregard public reports.  I got 6" shoving a ruler into the grass also

 

There's no uniformity in the reporting, for sure.  I submit my report in the exact same format from the exact same .gov e-mail address every time.  I've been tagged "Public", "Trained Spotter" and "Government Meteorologist" randomly over the last few years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, BWI has certainly changed over the last couple years to being a bit low always relative to nearby spotters.  I think BWI has actually amended down to 5.1" from 5.3" based on the last couple NWS PNS's and the record event report.  

 

Agreed. I don't understand why everyone always says BWI has inflated totals. It always seemed like they undermeasured events to me. Not nearly as bad as DCA but still...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DT's on FB honking about the mega-ratios up and down the 95 corridor.  

3. THE snow ratios up north were AMAZING. THROUGH 12AM newark NJ only got 0.40" of liquid and 10 of snow.. a snow ratio of 40:1. LaGuardia in NYC 0.25 liquid 8.1 " snow for a snow ratio of 32:1 ISLIP long Island 0.46" with 9.2" for a snow ratio of 20:1... Bridgeport CT got 0.21" with amounts of 5.5" for a snow ratio of 26:1

 

Anything over 20:1 is probably bogus IMO.  Wind certainly can screw with getting snow into the precip gauge and that's likely what happened yesterday.  

Tippin bucket warmed gauges are notorious for under reported precip with snow.  Throw in the winds and all the QPFs could be suspect. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DT's on FB honking about the mega-ratios up and down the 95 corridor.  

3. THE snow ratios up north were AMAZING. THROUGH 12AM newark NJ only got 0.40" of liquid and 10 of snow.. a snow ratio of 40:1. LaGuardia in NYC 0.25 liquid 8.1 " snow for a snow ratio of 32:1 ISLIP long Island 0.46" with 9.2" for a snow ratio of 20:1... Bridgeport CT got 0.21" with amounts of 5.5" for a snow ratio of 26:1

 

Anything over 20:1 is probably bogus IMO.  Wind certainly can screw with getting snow into the precip gauge and that's likely what happened yesterday.  

His FB meltdowns are hysterical. And his math skills are just as bad as ever: For Newark: 10 inches of snow and 0.40 liquid is 25:1, not 40:1. Stil probably wrong, but not quite as he put it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I saw there was a report for 11.0 in Phoenix, which is just east of Cockeysville... i think its bogus. That area has some elevation but nothing like up in Parkton or Long Green (where a 10.0 was reported and I believe it). I don't think any heavy band made it east of Cockeysville yesterday...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Finished with just a hair under 7 inches here just south of Towson - 6.8 or 6.9ish.

 

My parents live in Severna Park and measured 8 inches - which means they must have really cleaned up on those last few bands. Anyone else in the SP area see a similar total?

 

I can confirm here in Pasadena 8 inches. The bands stalled for a little while over the area and picked up an additional 1.5-2.0 inches.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...