notvirga! Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Finished with 8 inches, biggest snowfall of the season. I was surprised at the duration. I was still getting light snow after 8 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Got another two inches last night. It was really blowing hard yesterday so.not sure what I actually got. 7.5 final call. Surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Lots of drifting today....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Hard to find a more wintery type morning than today in dc area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Someone from the public reported 8.5" in leesburg...not at my house...Ji measured 7" around 6pm and it snowed another 4 hours...trained spotter had 7.3" so that is my official public reports should generally be disregarded, esp for a storm like this. Someone reported 7" from Ian's neighborhood. He had 5"...maybe a tad more. Not sure why LWX accepts these bogus reports from the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Finished with just a hair under 7 inches here just south of Towson - 6.8 or 6.9ish. My parents live in Severna Park and measured 8 inches - which means they must have really cleaned up on those last few bands. Anyone else in the SP area see a similar total? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I expect IAD and DCA numbers to change. Something's got to give to explain those ratios, especially for IAD. I live 7 miles due south of IAD. I didn't measure, but I'd estimate I had about 5 inches, which fits in with the 4 to 6 inches reported in Centreville. I suppose IAD could have had more, but 8.5 sounds high, especially on .2 qpf. they'll fix the liquid...snow is right, though it could always change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 they'll fix the liquid...snow is right, though it could always change Did Sterling only step in and substitute their total for IAD's in 2/5-6/10 or have they done it for other storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Matt, did you see my mini-wheat photo yesterday? i posted it just for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Did Sterling only step in and substitute their total for IAD's in 2/5-6/10 or have they done it for other storms? I am pretty sure they have done it for a number of storms...I just called them out at their facebook site for bogus public measurements. 7" at the zoo at midnight? 7 at Franconia? Why accept these reports? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Matt, did you see my mini-wheat photo yesterday? i posted it just for you I think so...cute kid...lucky you moved. Kids deserve snow. Raising a kid in a snowless city is cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I am pretty sure they have done it for a number of storms...I just called them out at their facebook site for bogus public measurements. 7" at the zoo at midnight? 7 at Franconia? Why accept these reports? Do they get screened out at a later time maybe? Is that from the preliminary report or the final? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 So it seems to me that when there's model unanimity of surpassing a threshold (say >4") *and* we're not on the southern edge, we get there by the end with the last hurrah. There are lots of examples of splotchy, uneven, underwhelming, "bust"-call filled beginnings that perform at the end and get most of us to at least the low side of the forecast. Just from the years since I've been on the weatherboards: 2/25/05, 2/28/05, 12/05/05, 2/11/06 (forecasters dropped the snow totals late evening), 3/01/09 (remember CWG's revision down only to have to revise back up last minute during the morning?), 2/9/10, and now this one... 3/6/13 doesn't break this IMO because the Euro verbatim with its surface temps would have resulted in non-accumulating snow too. yep...we suck at day time too unless it is +SN....I wish every storm started at 4pm....2/28 especially comes to mind. DC was mangled wet dustings before dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I am pretty sure they have done it for a number of storms...I just called them out at their facebook site for bogus public measurements. 7" at the zoo at midnight? 7 at Franconia? Why accept these reports? One relatively recent practice that I do like in their last PNS for an event is that they now separate out the 24-hr Cocorahs totals in a list under the spotter list. It's easier to scan the "higher quality" reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potvn_sx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 About 8" on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Do they get screened out at a later time maybe? Is that from the preliminary report or the final? not sure. just disregard public reports. I got 6" shoving a ruler into the grass also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Do they get screened out at a later time maybe? Is that from the preliminary report or the final? Sometimes they do--- and the final PNS will have that "better" section I just mentioned.... not that all the Cocorahs folk are great at measuring snow, but at least they have a better shot at getting a good number than your general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I expect IAD and DCA numbers to change. Something's got to give to explain those ratios, especially for IAD. I live 7 miles due south of IAD. I didn't measure, but I'd estimate I had about 5 inches, which fits in with the 4 to 6 inches reported in Centreville. I suppose IAD could have had more, but 8.5 sounds high, especially on .2 qpf. Yeah, I'd hope 8.5 on .2 is a greater than 40-1 ratio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Any XC skiiers on here? I'm thinking about skiing on the mall today, do you think that'll be good? Anyone know of a good golf course or other place to ski immediately in the DC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 One relatively recent practice that I do like in their last PNS for an event is that they now separate out the 24-hr Cocorahs totals in a list under the spotter list. It's easier to scan the "higher quality" reports. NWS Blacksburg does this now also, helps a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 yep...we suck at day time too unless it is +SN....I wish every storm started at 4pm....2/28 especially comes to mind. DC was mangled wet dustings before dark. I'm not sure what it is about weather models that produces the kind of quirk (not sure what a better word for it is... not really a quirk) where they can give you close to the right overall precipitation for an entire event but not get to that total in the right way--- especially the slow start but furious finish cases/trailing upper lows, etc. They tend to smooth it out more over the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I'm not sure what it is about weather models that produces the kind of quirk (not sure what a better word for it is... not really a quirk) where they can give you close to the right overall precipitation for an entire event but not get to that total in the right way--- especially the slow start but furious finish cases/trailing upper lows, etc. They tend to smooth it out more over the storm. or in the case of the GFS this storm, frontload it. We have seen it so many times, I was surprised I melted down despite model agreement that we wouldnt be done until 8-10pm....2/11/06 was may favorite because everyone went to bed and I got thunder and around 7" in 3 hours. 11" total. 3/1/09 was similar. 7.5" total and around midnight had a mangled 1"....stayed up all night for both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Any XC skiiers on here? I'm thinking about skiing on the mall today, do you think that'll be good? Anyone know of a good golf course or other place to ski immediately in the DC area? mall and haines point should both have around 3" of full coverage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I expect IAD and DCA numbers to change. Something's got to give to explain those ratios, especially for IAD. I live 7 miles due south of IAD. I didn't measure, but I'd estimate I had about 5 inches, which fits in with the 4 to 6 inches reported in Centreville. I suppose IAD could have had more, but 8.5 sounds high, especially on .2 qpf. I agree -- IAD's ratio is an absurd 42.5. I think its snow total is too high and its precipitation total is too low. Consider these widely varying ratios among the three major area airports from the reported snow and precipitation amounts: DCA: 3.8 inches of snow, 0.18 inches of precipitation, ratio 21.1 to 1. IAD: 8.5 inches of snow, 0.20 inches of precipitation, ratio 42.5 to 1. BWI: 5.3 inches of snow, 0.42 inches of precipitation, ratio 12.6 to 1. Only BWI's numbers look correct. Also, with respect to IAD, I live less than five miles to the east and received only about 5 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 or in the case of the GFS this storm, frontload it. We have seen it so many times, I was surprised I melted down despite model agreement that we wouldnt be done until 8-10pm....2/11/06 was may favorite because everyone went to bed and I got thunder and around 7" in 3 hours. 11" total. 3/1/09 was similar. 7.5" total and around midnight had a mangled 1"....stayed up all night for both. I was surprised you thought we were done yesterday, actually. But, it makes sense given the last two seasons. We've just never had it that bad.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Any XC skiiers on here? I'm thinking about skiing on the mall today, do you think that'll be good? Anyone know of a good golf course or other place to ski immediately in the DC area? Rock Creek trail is popular in my area. Not sure if they clear the trail in DC. They don't out here. It would give you the feel of being in the woods and on a trail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Arboretum 3.9" at 8am this morning. SOme compaction probably...near there was 4.5" at 8:35...I tacked on maybe 0.2" or so after 8:30....I bet they got near 4.5". I think DC was a pretty uniform 4-6" with the 5.5" to 6" amounts relegated to north of Van Ness to Tenleytown, etc. ...i wish AU had a final measurement. They were very helpful for 2/10/10 when I took an AU/DCA blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I think so...cute kid...lucky you moved. Kids deserve snow. Raising a kid in a snowless city is cruel. Thanks! She was loving it, until she fell face first, would cry, we'd get her face all clear and then she would go back to squealing and attempting to run around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I agree -- IAD's ratio is an absurd 42.5. I think its snow total is too high and its precipitation total is too low. Consider these widely varying ratios among the three major area airports from the reported snow and precipitation amounts: DCA: 3.8 inches of snow, 0.18 inches of precipitation, ratio 21.1 to 1. IAD: 8.5 inches of snow, 0.20 inches of precipitation, ratio 42.5 to 1. BWI: 5.3 inches of snow, 0.42 inches of precipitation, ratio 12.6 to 1. Only BWI's numbers look correct. Also, with respect to IAD, I live less than five miles to the east and received only about 5 inches of snow. I am 5 miles east of IAD as well and measured 5.5". I was thinking IAD got under some death band that missed here, but given the precip something is really off in their reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I was surprised you thought we were done yesterday, actually. But, it makes sense given the last two seasons. We've just never had it that bad.... part was tongue-in-cheek reverse psychology, but I did want to prepare myself for the possibility that all the good banding would be to my NW, and I would pixie dust my way to another 0.25 to 0.5....Once I started to get attacked for being a debbie downer, I ran with it. I knew I might be wrong, but didnt want to get too bullish. I was traumatized after so many busts, and I wasnt sure the models would get the cutoff correct. Turns out the margin for error for the nightime stuff was pretty big. If you remember on 2/11/06 and 3/1/09 I was the one who was talkig everyone off the ledge. Especially 2/11/06 as the RUC has a robust banding signature once the coastal got going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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