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Jan 21 Obs thread II


stormtracker

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I'm now getting dendrites and have moderate snow. Pretty sure I have 4 inches just looking out the window. I'll measure after the band moves through.  I'm a happy camper.  Overall, the models rocked. 

 

they did very well...The GFS got a little goofy with all the front end QPF, but otherwise very good job by the models....north shift was real, but we were just far enough north to be ok..Central VA got pretty screwed...glad we had that margin for error...nice call on the vort delivering

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they did very well...The GFS got a little goofy with all the front end QPF, but otherwise very good job by the models....north shift was real, but we were just far enough north to be ok..Central VA got pretty screwed...glad we had that margin for error...nice call on the vort delivering

I'm now getting S+ for awhile, the prettiest snow of the day.  Nice dendrites.   How much did you ned up with? 

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I'm now getting dendrites and have moderate snow. Pretty sure I have 4 inches just looking out the window. I'll measure after the band moves through. I'm a happy camper. Overall, the models rocked.

They did really well except qpf at range. Two days ago a lot of people said this was like a 2-4/3-5 tops. Example of not needing to always hug qpf.. Tho it did eventually lock in.
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I'm now getting dendrites and have moderate snow. Pretty sure I have 4 inches just looking out the window. I'll measure after the band moves through.  I'm a happy camper.  Overall, the models rocked. 

Up there they did pretty good.  Sitting on the gradient here, I say we busted in most of central/western VA. Dry slot madness.  Only picked up about 2".

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They did really well except qpf at range. Two days ago a lot of people said this was like a 2-4/3-5 tops. Example of not needing to always hug qpf.. Tho it did eventually lock in.

The NAM actually was the 1st to get in the ballpark with the QPF and vort.  The Euro was little late to the game but did a good job of going for the north band, so did the NAM.  I thought they might be overdone.  The track and strength of the vort gave me confidence for us though I started to worry this afternoon about mby. 

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I'm now getting S+ for awhile, the prettiest snow of the day.  Nice dendrites.   How much did you ned up with? 

 

4.25" last I checked, but I think I may have gotten to 4.5"....I'm pretty happy....I was stuck at 2.75" and things looked bleak...The old me would have stuck with the models and trusted the RAP and NAM..I used to be the guy who talked people off the ledge...But  the new traumatized me was afraid I was just too far southeast to get banded, and that I would end up pixie dusting my way to 3" while all the good finale banding was relegated to Montgomery county and up toward Frederick...it was combo reverse psychology and warranted pessimism...fortunately radar got better quickly and a few sensible people gave me hope even if they were faking it....in the end I was happily wrong!...DT has a rule never to forecast off your last event...but I dont know if he has a rule about forecasting off your last 13 events.....1/2, this one and March 25th of last year have given me hope that I can still get a modest event...the 2-4, 4-8" events actually exist...now we have to see if we can break that seasonal drouight and actually get a 20" winter like we used to...DCA should be around 7" after this event...I'd still say 10-12" is the final amount as of now

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4.25" last I checked, but I think I may have gotten to 4.5"....I'm pretty happy....I was stuck at 2.75" and things looked bleak...The old me would have stuck with the models and trusted the RAP and NAM..I used to be the guy who talked people off the ledge...But  the new traumatized me was afraid I was just too far southeast to get banded, and that I would end up pixie dusting my way to 3" while all the good finale banding was relegated to Montgomery county and up toward Frederick...it was combo reverse psychology and warranted pessimism...fortunately radar got better quickly and a few sensible people gave me hope even if they were faking it....in the end I was happily wrong!...DT has a rule never to forecast off your last event...but I dont know if he has a rule about forecasting off your last 13 events.....1/2, this one and March 25th of last year have given me hope that I can still get a modest event...the 2-4, 4-8" events actually exist...now we have to see if we can break that seasonal drouight and actually get a 20" winter like we used to...DCA should be around 7" after this event...I'd still say 10-12" is the final amount as of now

Congrats Matt, I was feeling it for you man. Nothing wrong with being off a little, particularly on the good end. The band in the end got you up there to 4.5, which is a solid event even to the modest onlooker, especially in this area, especially with a NS vort. All and all, can't complain! Glad to have you around. 

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But they started to hint at that yesterday except the GFS.  

 

the 1/61 analog kind of worked this time...both with the 1/2 event and this event we kind of maximized our pattern potential....give me hope that we can get another 3"+ storm in a so-so pattern this winter...

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4.25" last I checked, but I think I may have gotten to 4.5"....I'm pretty happy....I was stuck at 2.75" and things looked bleak...The old me would have stuck with the models and trusted the RAP and NAM..I used to be the guy who talked people off the ledge...But  the new traumatized me was afraid I was just too far southeast to get banded, and that I would end up pixie dusting my way to 3" while all the good finale banding was relegated to Montgomery county and up toward Frederick...it was combo reverse psychology and warranted pessimism...fortunately radar got better quickly and a few sensible people gave me hope even if they were faking it....in the end I was happily wrong!...DT has a rule never to forecast off your last event...but I dont know if he has a rule about forecasting off your last 13 events.....1/2, this one and March 25th of last year have given me hope that I can still get a modest event...the 2-4, 4-8" events actually exist...now we have to see if we can break that seasonal drouight and actually get a 20" winter like we used to...DCA should be around 7" after this event...I'd still say 10-12" is the final amount as of now

DC is a hard nut to crack cause I'll be at around 12 after this event (I think).  These kind of events I almost always beat them, same with wet snows.  Occasionally like it 2003, being east will really hurt me compared to the city but usually rural beats out the urban heat island and being next to the river. 

 

When I was growing up we got lots of these type events.  Now they are rare.  

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Congrats Matt, I was feeling it for you man. Nothing wrong with being off a little, particularly on the good end. The band in the end got you up there to 4.5, which is a solid event even to the modest onlooker, especially in this area, especially with a NS vort. All and all, can't complain! Glad to have you around. 

 

thanks....I am very pleased with the quality of this event and not just the quantity

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I'm now getting dendrites and have moderate snow. Pretty sure I have 4 inches just looking out the window. I'll measure after the band moves through.  I'm a happy camper.  Overall, the models rocked. 

 

I'll say they did.  Great consensus leading up to the event.  I have 7.1" with pixie dust flying.  

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