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Jan 21 Obs thread II


stormtracker

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Do whatever you want Matt, in the end you bring good insight to the table. I don't get offended when someone with less ability to interpret the models/situation calls me out on something. Either they're making an irresponsible statement, or just misinterpreting something. Overall, the north trend call is more about the truth, not being a downer. People need to understand that. Radar is indeed looking a bit better for you btw. 

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Do whatever you want Matt, in the end you bring good insight to the table. I don't get offended when someone with less ability to interpret the models/situation calls me out on something. Either they're making an irresponsible statement, or just misinterpreting something. Overall, the north trend call is more about the truth, not being a downer. People need to understand that. Radar is indeed looking a bit better for you btw. 

 

agreed...I am hoping to get some more accumulation, even if meager

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talking about a north trend (which has been validated) is not being a debbie downer...perhaps I need to find a place to post whereI can express concern about  a storm or pattern without being attacked...

Understood, but saying "you're done" when theres a few more hours of snowfall to fall, and the possibility of OK rates for an hour or so is kind of ridiculous.

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Understood, but saying "you're done" when theres a few more hours of snowfall to fall, and the possibility of OK rates for an hour or so is kind of ridiculous.

This is probably the main point:

Talking realistically about north trend does not equal saying with 100% confidence that the band will not come through. This is for the banter thread at this point, though. 

Picking up here again a bit. 

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Concur with all the posts about not being able to express an alternative to all the "positive" posts. A lot of mine were deleted, but I bet the scenario they described will be more accurate in the end than the models...

 

Not one of your posts was deleted.    Your warm scenario panned out?  Wet pavement with no daytime stickage?  It did?

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I think everyone gets 1"+ with that band.  If DC folks have ~3", that band should push most to 4"+ I'd guess.  Then probably done. 

 

Just measured 3" here in Crofton.  I agree we can end up with 4" when all is said and done.  Not a bad system, but certainly not, I repeat NOT the over-performer on 1/02 for this part of AA County. Kudos to the 06Z NAM and 00Z ECMWF and post-06Z RAP trends last night -- they both had DCA right around .40" for the event.  I do not know what the 06Z GFS was smoking, especially between 12-18Z (far too wet). 

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Curious of something, when this was looking like a 1-2" deal for DC on the good end, and I said I wanted to make a thread to bring us good luck, did it work? 

 

Wondering if I've earned myself potential privileges in the future? 

Most definitely an overperformer from where we were at when you said you wanted to make a thread. I vote you start next Monday's thread.

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Been doing reasonably well with radar interpretations today. Think those in downtown DC should see another .75-1.25" 

 

The Baltimore area should expect 2-3" additional inches of snow I believe, with the best totals coming on the east and especially north parts of town.

That would be Hella swell. Hope you are right.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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