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Jan 21 Obs thread II


stormtracker

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

256 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.. RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL

FOOTHILLS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

 

Nice discussion.  I'm glad that they addressed the radar too.

 

Moderate snow, blowing snow, cold.  I should go out and measure.

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I was just wondering if you were still up this way. Let me know if you get stranded and I'll treat to a beer at Jilly's!

Be safe and update us on road conditions when you get home.

Made it home in 80 minutes (normally a 35 min trip). 695 was slushy (outer loop was worse than inner loop----probably something to do with Martin O' Malley :) . 70 was snow covered in most spots and very slick. Experienced bands of heavy snow and very low visibility punctuated by areas of lighter precip along the ride on 70 west. Side roads are treacherous. All in all, the saving grace was the light traffic volume. Fun storm and hopefully more to come. Catch you at Jilly's next time :).

MDstorm

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

256 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE VIRGINIA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER

THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE REDEVELOPING OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH

PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A

REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE

WILL BUILD OVERHEAD FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE TN VALLEY AS IT

BECOMES MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED THIS AFTERNOON. LOW PRESSURE HAS

DEEPENED TO A 1000MB LOW AND IS MOVING ACROSS VA BEACH. AN UPPER

LEVEL JET HAS MOVED OFF THE EAST COAST TOWARDS CAPE COD AND WILL

CONTINUE TO AIDE IN DEEPENING THE LOW AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE REGION THIS

MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH ACCUMULATION OF 6-8 INCHES IN THE POTOMAC

HIGHLANDS AND NRN MD TO 1-2 INCHES IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND AND LESS IN

THE CENTRAL FOOTHILLS. NRLY WINDS HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE REGION

WITH SUSTAINED 10-15 AND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THIS WILL RESULT IN

BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS OUTSIDE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW

THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING I-66

AND NORTH IN ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE BANDS. FURTHER SOUTH... A LULL

IN ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN LIGHTER SNOW AND SLOWER ACCUMULATION.

TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP AS NRLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE

NIGHT. THE MID ATLANTIC WILL NOT SEE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING UNTIL THIS

WEEKEND.

AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD SNOW OVER WV WILL MOVE

EASTWARD. HI RES MODELS SHOW ACTIVITY GETTING PULLED SOUTH AND

EASTWARD MOVING SOUTH OF THE LWX REGION. DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS

HAVE ACTIVITY MOVING RIGHT OVERHEAD RESULTING IN MORE SNOWFALL

ACCUMULATION. GFS SHOWS SOME BANDING POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING

IMPACTING AREAS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE. AT THIS TIME...WINTER STORM

WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. AS LOW PRESSURE

INTENSIFIES OFF THE COAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WRAP

AROUND SNOW BANDS MAY BRING ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION TO AREAS EAST OF

THE BLUE RIDGE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE AND CAUSE GUSTS

OF 30MPH TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN BLOWING SNOW AND

INCREASED TRAVEL CONCERNS. RADAR IS OVERSHOOTING SNOW IN THE CENTRAL

FOOTHILLS...SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND POTOMAC HIGHLANDS.

Good synopsis

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It's still sleet at the moment, but it looks like it's trying to switch back. Small flakes here and there.

 

I'm hugging the HRRR.

 

O yeah, you want that quick 3-4 inches. They've had a relative bubble near me all day and Radar seems to want to slide it east of me again. 

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Here is a better-validated technique: select three locations on your property, best if the are away from trees and buildings.

If placing a yardstick onto the ground, don't force it too far or leave an airgap.

Just did this.

location 1 was 7 1/4"

location 2 was 7"

location3 was 8 1/4"

so 7 1/2" would be a good estimate. The wind has really made it hard. There are parts of the yard where you can see the top of the grass and parts that gave me close to that 9" measurement.

And it is still snowing lightly.

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