TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Well I said 10" was doable. That band was just a hair N and E of you by a few miles. Your 11" though will be pretty good comparatively. Yup made it over my benchmark of 10", and yup I was pretty close. The new box map out out pretty much accurately depicts that. Just to my northwest, and just to my northeast were totals over mine. Another frigid snowstorm, this IMO has been a really good winter for us. I'm not really into the snowpack thing so much, but it's been cold and snowy, and we've had two frigid events. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Philly with 33+ on the season. I think their full season climo is 16.pretty sure it's 22" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Gotta love ASOS. TAN reporting 0.16" liquid thus far for the storm. Sorry but 50:1 did not happen. 25:1 I could see.not sure if TAN has an AWPAGs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Nice Steve. I'm happy for you my friend! thanks Jerry 11.5 was the final, truly enjoyable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yep, models can get some general features right, but still suck. Even the more pessimistic models didn't show that type of cutoff. Its always a "risk" with the big banding...but you wouldn't forecast that based on what we were seeing on the models. Typically you want to see a really strong cutoff on qpf and also a high to our north (versus more northwest)...we saw that signature in the Dec '09 storm, to our south near NYC in the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm, and likely storms such as Blizz '96, and PDI. It would have been nice for models to give us a better clue on that, since you only have so much to work with. There's a reaosn not one single meteorlogist or hobbyist predicted 1-2" for Wilmington to ORH. With the benefit of hindsight, its a bit easier, but I don't think anyone can say that was identifiable yesterday morning before the storm. Mmm, nah -- I partially agree. I'll give to y'all that this was a difficult exercise in deterministic Meteorology ... but the writing was on the wall yesterday and a few of us tried to stress that. (As usual, those posts tend to be ignored in lieu of the collective pursuit for the drama of winter weather filtering out such distraction ... but I digress) I wrote this earlier yesterday: "Anyway, I wouldn't be shocked at all if this did little more than advisory impact from roughly mid axial warning area and points N-W. Some of these later guidance E nuances are a bit more telling for me than mere nuance. I see some synoptic issues with this thing that combined with now-cast = a bit of a negation. This is cold rivaling anything we have had to date. Check out ALB's morning temperature rise: 211551 BKN110 OVC200 10 7 -7 0206 202 211451 BKN130 OVC250 10 7 -7 0206 197 211351 BKN140 OVC250 10 6 -7 0106 195 211251 BKN150 OVC250 10 6 -7 0106 187 211151 SCT180 OVC250 10 6 -7 3203 182 This system may in fact not possess enough power to curl cyclonic action into this type of viscous air mass. The wind max/jet structures in the mid levels have been persistently modeled as dying as it turns and lifts up in latitude along 70W. I have been questioning that suspect, but it occurs to me that this is likely due to having additional wave dynamics bullying into the bottom of the L/W axis (see NAM 27 hour), while the lead v-max turns that corner ... I.e., wave interference, a common theme in recent times. Most guidance have this inharmonious dynamic going on. Still, there will be a low born of the lead v-max and it's bundle of tricks, as it won't have attenuated enough. I agree that it hearkens back to the storm during the first week of the month, but one thing that differs here is that our event entrance wind trajectories are NNW, then turn NNE ... perhaps NE on the Cape and Islands. Back when, there took place a solid 6 hours of OES prior to synoptic forcing. This will not take place with this system, and will atone [perhaps] to about half the snow impact off this as a direct comparison (talking eastern zones). Down along the SE coastal areas, the Cape and Islands may fair better with some double seeding, however. I am just not that impressed with this guy. I think he would do better if he were not getting some mechanical robbery by the follow-up S/W blasting off the Carolinas. Whether you can see it or not, it imposes negative curvature against the lead impulse that's spinning up the low, and that causes a net reduction in it's capability to deepen a vortex strong enough to carve into this molasses of an air mass. Just don't be surprised if this under-performs NW of HFD-ORH-LWM -ish line is all I'm saying, and maybe in general. " It also occurs to me this morning that technically, no one really NW of a BVY-PVD line every had a coastal storm in this. What occurred yesterday was isentropic over the polar-side of an arctic boundary, prolific as it were from PHL to R.I... Really quite ANA in nature. The coastal aspect of this cranked during the pre-dawn hours, but far enough E of the MA to not include them, and far enough E in general to not include HFD-ORD-BED. SE of that axis got clipped by the actual coastal early this morning ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I will be shooting down to norwell this afternoon for sure Probably won't do much good. The 18-20" will look like a foot..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FRWEATHA Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 About 6.5 inches here in Fall River. Definitely received more in the event earlier this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 This is turning into a rare and pretty epic OES deal. Radar keeps backfilling. Just piling the snow up. Hoping we have about another 90 minutes left of the best stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 BTW congrats Ginx to Scooter...that part worked out well on our jackpot talk yesterday....great storm for ya'll. thanks Will I appreciate it, not too often that happens so I savior the moments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 And eventually we will get the shot at a true blue mega blizzard IMO. Guys lost in all this is it's like 15 degrees and raging again (or colder) for a lot of us last night and today. We will remember this winter for the cold and oscillations but also how abrupt the changes are. Anyway, S+ right now best of the storm. Crushed AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Anybody who is just measuring now is going to come in with lower numbers than what is reality, this stuff is compacting quite a bit and quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Anybody who is just measuring now is going to come in with lower numbers than what is reality, this stuff is compacting quite a bit and quickly Yea it looks like 6.5 or 7 from an eyeball standpoint..but reports in the area are 8-9.5". I can't really measure in my yard that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Anybody who is just measuring now is going to come in with lower numbers than what is reality, this stuff is compacting quite a bit and quickly Radar estimates + ratio estimates seem to be the way to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Snow drift is now up to the roof of one of the cars and the bumpers and doors on the other. I shoveled it out last night after the first 5 or 6" fell as well as the drift. Jackpot totals will come out of Plymouth and along rte 3 up to Marshvegas where this band has been for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Snow drift is now up to the roof of one of the cars and the bumpers and doors on the other. I shoveled it out last night after the first 5 or 6" fell as well as the drift. Jackpot totals will come out of Plymouth and along rte 3 up to Marshvegas where this band has been for hours Pics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Snow drift is now up to the roof of one of the cars and the bumpers and doors on the other. I shoveled it out last night after the first 5 or 6" fell as well as the drift. Jackpot totals will come out of Plymouth and along rte 3 up to Marshvegas where this band has been for hours. http://johnsweather.com/webcam1.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Some areas down by Norwell to PYM will have their second storm of 18" or so..give or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Radar estimates + ratio estimates seem to be the way to go Yup, I just missed the best stuff, but still a great storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 http://johnsweather.com/webcam1.html Doesn't work for me. Must require Java which has more security holes in it than the local Target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yea it looks like 6.5 or 7 from an eyeball standpoint..but reports in the area are 8-9.5". I can't really measure in my yard that well. I got up at like 4 am lol. I'm nuts. Eyeballing here now, it has compacted quite a bit. I'll be honest, I thought you were a lock for 10+, but that's how these storms have been this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Doesn't work for me. Must require Java which has more security holes in it than the local Target. crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Some areas down by Norwell to PYM will have their second storm of 18" or so..give or take. Good reason why the deep arctic airmasses are good for South Shore...the OES Fetish storms can't really happen without it. We def haven't seen this much OES down there since 1994. Not even 2005 had this much...'05 just had more synoptic monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 What we're totals like in the Falmouth area/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I got up at like 4 am lol. I'm nuts. Eyeballing here now, it has compacted quite a bit. I'll be honest, I thought you were a lock for 10+, but that's how these storms have been this year Both storms have underachieved in the area with moderate amounts of snow...but hey it's still a decent total. I want to move to the south shore lol Still looking to get a whopper of 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good reason why the deep arctic airmasses are good for South Shore...the OES Fetish storms can't really happen without it. We def haven't seen this much OES down there since 1994. Not even 2005 had this much...'05 just had more synoptic monsters. 05 was the last one that was this good IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Figuring 15:1 ratios to get me to 10.5 (.7 qpf) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good reason why the deep arctic airmasses are good for South Shore...the OES Fetish storms can't really happen without it. We def haven't seen this much OES down there since 1994. Not even 2005 had this much...'05 just had more synoptic monsters. Leon FTW. Last time arctic snowy owls were this abundant in SNE was 1994. I know Messenger did not get the analog because we had thaws but certainly he may understand why we preached the similarities. I hate to beat a dead horse and we especially Jerry took a ribbing for it but even you pointed out several times the similarities. I salute Jerry for seeing this way way ahead of anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Good reason why the deep arctic airmasses are good for South Shore...the OES Fetish storms can't really happen without it. We def haven't seen this much OES down there since 1994. Not even 2005 had this much...'05 just had more synoptic monsters. Yeah I know Messenger has the Dead Sea Scroll archives of OES, but I don't recall events like this in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Gotta love ASOS. TAN reporting 0.16" liquid thus far for the storm. Sorry but 50:1 did not happen. 25:1 I could see. Welcome back (even with your defriend of me on FB) welcome home son Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Yeah I know Messenger has the Dead Sea Scroll archives of OES, but I don't recall events like this in years. Wonder if the John Deere is buried over the seat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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