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Jan 21/22 winter storm Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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I meant more for yesterday down by him. At least that is what I thought he meant. 

 

Yeah was more speaking in general over the region and also in theme.  IE, again if we removed the GFS inside of 2 days and just used the RGEM and Euro....expectations would have been tempered somewhat.  Not enough though.   This one actually went more extreme than normal where even the Euro was overdone out west.  Down here I think it did well in always indicating part two was more of a "miss/scrape" than the American stuff which clobbered us to varying degrees.

 

As it is, we thought the jackpots might approach 20.  I think you and I talked about it being between you and I, and it was.   The smokestack from the power plant was running yesterday and it's never been wrong...wind trajectory was a little off for me to stay in the best banding and it did push up to you.

 

If I can get an hour under this OES band I should pull a foot I think.  Will go check it out now.  I've got drifts to the tops of car doors but that's part for the course.  70% of the yards around me are bare grass stripped by the winds.

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Yep, models can get some general features right, but still suck. Even the more pessimistic models didn't show that type of cutoff. Its always a "risk" with the big banding...but you wouldn't forecast that based on what we were seeing on the models.

 

Typically you want to see a really strong cutoff on qpf and also a high to our north (versus more northwest)...we saw that signature in the Dec '09 storm, to our south near NYC in the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm, and likely storms such as Blizz '96, and PDI.

 

It would have been nice for models to give us a better clue on that, since you only have so much to work with. There's a reaosn not one single meteorlogist or hobbyist predicted 1-2" for Wilmington to ORH. :lol:  With the benefit of hindsight, its a bit easier, but I don't think anyone can say that was identifiable yesterday morning before the storm.

Your favorite model, the RPM did.

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I would not annoint scooter king of sne this season yet.

Sw flow patterns can alter that landscape quickly.

 

And eventually we will get the shot at a true blue mega blizzard IMO. 

 

Guys lost in all this is it's like 15 degrees and raging again (or colder) for a lot of us last night and today.   We will remember this winter for the cold and oscillations but also how abrupt the changes are.

 

Anyway, S+ right now best of the storm.

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I'm a humble man when it comes to winter. Thanks for the congrats and after two seasons ago..I appreciate every flake. It can change on a dime which is why I try to enjoy when I can and not post all these happy "OMG!" posts as it's coming down. I know how bad it sucks to be on the outside and looking in..I hate that feeling.

 

Will and Ray have plenty winter left. They will catch up and exceed most likely. To be honest, areas to my south have more on the season than me...lol.

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I'm a humble man when it comes to winter. Thanks for the congrats and after two seasons ago..I appreciate every flake. It can change on a dime which is why I try to enjoy when I can and not post all these happy "OMG!" posts as it's coming down. I know how bad it sucks to be on the outside and looking in..I hate that feeling.

 

Will and Ray have plenty winter left. They will catch up and exceed most likely. To be honest, areas to my south have more on the season than me...lol.

 

Scott in relation to route 18 where are you?  roughly of course.

 

I figured you were in that zone that got tattooed last night.

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I'm a humble man when it comes to winter. Thanks for the congrats and after two seasons ago..I appreciate every flake. It can change on a dime which is why I try to enjoy when I can and not post all these happy "OMG!" posts as it's coming down. I know how bad it sucks to be on the outside and looking in..I hate that feeling.

 

Will and Ray have plenty winter left. They will catch up and exceed most likely. To be honest, areas to my south have more on the season than me...lol.

I may not...didn't  in 1994, but Will probably will.

Late season elevation dependancy, if nothing else.

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i thought the same thing. the air is really dry, static shockingly dry. going to take some time to overcome that.

seems like those NW of this area , esp north of MA/NH border are going to be struggling for more than a dusting.

looks like i was on the right track yesterday. but-

was i right for the wrong reasons? 

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I had to make an edit...but I think they weakened the forcing too quickly. The models blew their load down by NYC...but then the band went to town over my head. They didn't model that....but despite that look...I liked seeing the narrow linear band of forcing because there is always room for surprises. Well, there kind of was.

Modeled lift was consistently modeled strong into about bos for yesterday pm (even if it was stronger sw near nyc and when models Also lost lift from overnite period 6z to 12z from EMA to say PSM was when i was spooked yesterday am

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Modeled lift was consistently modeled strong into about bos for yesterday pm (even if it was stronger sw near nyc and when models Also lost lift from overnite period 6z to 12z from EMA to say PSM was when i was spooked yesterday am

 

It was sufficient, but I think models overall weakened it too quickly which led to a false expansion of lift northward.

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