40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Well in the interest of accuracy it was much more than just qpf. The 2nd low itself was getting shoved seaward every six hours. Like I said the euro was off but didn't overdo it. This time it won handily and the ncep stuff did nothing but backpedal inside of 20 or 36 hours. Not surprising because as will says it scores better. I think on this system it kind or regained some "inside of 48" dominance. Rgem too. I understand that, but my point is that sometimes we see changes in the mid levels manifest themselves into the qpf output....which is why is silly to ignore it. I understand you can't obssess over run-run fluctuations in the lowest scoring metric of model output, but when it becomes a clear trend, you don't ignore it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 You've probably mentioned it, but what did WWilmington pull off on this? 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 5" OTG here and the steady snow basically stopped around 11pm last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 18 down in the Hanover-Marshfield area to Rockland per PNS. That weymouth total might be near 17" by now, but it seemed a little high to me when it was reported at 2:30am. Perhaps they were down near Hingham. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 1".lol...not laughing at you, but the whole thing is a joke to me. I know you're not laughing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Enough said. The lambasting of anyone who displays concern over QPF trends needs to end. Some over do it, but its obvious that some are overreliant on the mid levels, too. Happy meduim. Here's my take This "storm" was mostly about mid level 7H forcing . The whole damn band from me md to Phil to mt tolland to franklin last nite was from primarily this feature and the models were pretty damn solid w it There was gonna be a bust one way other w sharp cut offs nw of this forcing and nobody can be expected to nail the cut off. So in sne it was from a of Danbury to just S of 84 to holliston to boston . Was modeled pretty damn well but what forecaster is gonna put out a map w 1-5 from bos nw and 8-14 just s of bos w lolli's where oe and fronto combined The qpf queen comments are usually from posters who dont wanna hear anything negative or over react and think every damn comment (which they cant determine the context is a panic) I was concerned immediately in am yesterday (after looking at mon nite's 7h forcing / mid level lift cut sharply on gfs overnite last nite and i was called a panicker by most, when it was a model comment and accurate btw And there was some noise between different models wrt mid level lift getting to 495 for a cpl few hr Bursts and for a time overnite last nite (till it was cut yesterday). Some storms people talk mid levels too much, this storm was dependent on more 7h forcing then any i can recall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Here's my take This "storm" was mostly about mid level 7H forcing . The whole damn band from me md to Phil to mt tolland to franklin last nite was from primarily this feature and the models were pretty damn solid w it There was gonna be a bust one way other w sharp cut offs nw of this forcing and nobody can be expected to nail the cut off. So in sne it was from a of Danbury to just S of 84 to holliston to boston . Was modeled pretty damn well but what forecaster is gonna put out a map w 1-5 from bos nw and 8-14 just s of bos w lolli's where oe and fronto combined The qpf queen comments are usually from posters who dont wanna hear anything negative or over react and think every damn comment (which they cant determine the context is a panic) I was concerned immediately in am yesterday when i saw mid level lift cut sharply on gfs overnite last nite and i was called a panicker by most, when it was a model comment The gfs back pedaled every run for the last 3-4 finally coming around to realizing phase two was so far offshore it wouldn't help most. Well and it gave up on the mega unified storm. Plymouth county getting crushed right now. I'm not in the best of it and I have heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Wasn't expecting much the way things were falling last night, but looks like we got a decent burst overnight. Any idea when I can expect this to wrap up in my neck of the woods on Kingston/plympton line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 The gfs back pedaled every run for the last 3-4 finally coming around to realizing phase two was so far offshore it wouldn't help most. Well and it gave up on the mega unified storm. Plymouth county getting crushed right now. I'm not in the best of it and I have heavy snow. GFS and euro from 12z yesterday look similar to me. GFS might verify a touch better across your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Temp still dropping ..-2.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 lol...not laughing at you, but the whole thing is a joke to me. I know you're not laughing though. No worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 GFS and euro from 12z yesterday look similar to me. GFS might verify a touch better across your area. These are more or less the runs I was talking about...remember we were told to ignore the dropping QPF in CT/WMA etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I thought the guidance was fine for last night. All models worked for me. The all had the same features which all basically told the story since the 12z guidance came out. They all had the second reinforcing stuff clipping SE MA and the Cape like it is now. Models sucked for west of Boston....the cutoff was far sharper. But sometimes that happens. Usually though you will see a more gradient look to the QPF (esp on the mesomodels) when that is a large threat. That band last night though definitely helped choke off the qpf to the NW....even more than you would probably adjust for on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Here's my take This "storm" was mostly about mid level 7H forcing . The whole damn band from me md to Phil to mt tolland to franklin last nite was from primarily this feature and the models were pretty damn solid w it There was gonna be a bust one way other w sharp cut offs nw of this forcing and nobody can be expected to nail the cut off. So in sne it was from a of Danbury to just S of 84 to holliston to boston . Was modeled pretty damn well but what forecaster is gonna put out a map w 1-5 from bos nw and 8-14 just s of bos w lolli's where oe and fronto combined The qpf queen comments are usually from posters who dont wanna hear anything negative or over react and think every damn comment (which they cant determine the context is a panic) I was concerned immediately in am yesterday (after looking at mon nite's 7h forcing / mid level lift cut sharply on gfs overnite last nite and i was called a panicker by most, when it was a model comment and accurate btw And there was some noise between different models wrt mid level lift getting to 495 for a cpl few hr Bursts and for a time overnite last nite (till it was cut yesterday). Some storms people talk mid levels too much, this storm was dependent on more 7h forcing then any i can recall I was just breaking your balls over your posting style, not refuting what you were trying to convey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Models sucked for west of Boston....the cutoff was far sharper. But sometimes that happens. Usually though you will see a more gradient look to the QPF (esp on the mesomodels) when that is a large threat. That band last night though definitely helped choke off the qpf to the NW....even more than you would probably adjust for on the models. Thank you. No one's fault. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Temp still dropping ..-2.1 same here, down to 1.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Revising my totals from .5 to a coating. I eyeballed 0.5" in Lowell. Wow, what a friggan disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Scott, the GFS in particular I thought was pretty woeful. QPF wise may not be "terrible" here because it's always overdone so even in missing it got it right, but check out how much it dropped this low out run to run. Poor verification at these time ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Thank you. No one's fault. It is what it is. Yep, models can get some general features right, but still suck. Even the more pessimistic models didn't show that type of cutoff. Its always a "risk" with the big banding...but you wouldn't forecast that based on what we were seeing on the models. Typically you want to see a really strong cutoff on qpf and also a high to our north (versus more northwest)...we saw that signature in the Dec '09 storm, to our south near NYC in the Feb 5-6, 2010 storm, and likely storms such as Blizz '96, and PDI. It would have been nice for models to give us a better clue on that, since you only have so much to work with. There's a reaosn not one single meteorlogist or hobbyist predicted 1-2" for Wilmington to ORH. With the benefit of hindsight, its a bit easier, but I don't think anyone can say that was identifiable yesterday morning before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Models sucked for west of Boston....the cutoff was far sharper. But sometimes that happens. Usually though you will see a more gradient look to the QPF (esp on the mesomodels) when that is a large threat. That band last night though definitely helped choke off the qpf to the NW....even more than you would probably adjust for on the models. I meant more for yesterday down by him. At least that is what I thought he meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Only 0.13" of liquid here in West Hartford - obviously well short of what any model had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 BTW congrats Ginx to Scooter...that part worked out well on our jackpot talk yesterday....great storm for ya'll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Ray, that was more geared to yesterday's suite. I don't disagree with you. It comes down to lift. The models weakened the forcing too much last night which did no induce an exhaust area to the NW. This is not the first time I have seen models too weak with that stretch deformation band like what occurred last night. Red flag when models have all that lift and decent QPF to the NW, but not I think I know why. Post edited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Usually models will to smooth out things such as qpf distributions, so I guess we just need to try to recognize when that may be the case....easier said, I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't disagree 48hrs out....seemed like you were referring to the runs yesterday. GFS was too wet too far west, but we are talking a couple of tenths..if that. Model resolution plays into that part as well as all models weakening the lift too quick I think. JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Usually models will to smooth out things such as qpf distributions, so I guess we just need to try to recognize when that may be the case....easier said, I know. I had to make an edit...but I think they weakened the forcing too quickly. The models blew their load down by NYC...but then the band went to town over my head. They didn't model that....but despite that look...I liked seeing the narrow linear band of forcing because there is always room for surprises. Well, there kind of was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't think anyone will catch Scooter's area for total snowfall this winter..not even ORH..He's got like a 24 inch lead lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 Heaviest is just south of me. Hanover/Marshfield will get 20". I have over a foot by lost my ruler last night lol. Might be 13-15" They make this 3' long bar called a yard stick, Congrats man, You and steve cleaned up in that band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 22, 2014 Share Posted January 22, 2014 I don't think anyone will catch Scooter's area for total snowfall this winter..not even ORH..He's got like a 24 inch lead lol I'm not even going to add last night's amount to my total... I am going to pretend it never happened...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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