Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,584
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Jan 21/22 winter storm Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The fronto band robbed a lot of moisture...even ORH couldn't pull out a win in this one. The cutoff was def sharper than most thought. ML fronto bands can do funky things and its not easy to predict other than whoever gets into it will do pretty well. Sometimes the screwzone to the NW is more apparent.

 

Sometimes it happens. Other times you'll b**ch your way into 11" of snow like 12/21/09.

Enough said.

 

The lambasting of anyone who displays concern over QPF trends needs to end.

Some over do it, but its obvious that some are overreliant on the mid levels, too.

Happy meduim.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1".

I'm glad that we didn't sweat the QPF.

lol that and the ncep models predilection for overdoing everything. Aside of the death band which depending on water equivalents was not badly handled....rest was way overdone.

Euro was good. So was the rgem last night in showing the 2nd low mainly missing. If it weren't for OeS here I'd have come in at about 40% of most predictions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol that and the ncep models predilection for overdoing everything. Aside of the death band which depending on water equivalents was not badly handled....rest was way overdone.

Euro was good. So was the rgem last night in showing the 2nd low mainly missing. If it weren't for OeS here I'd have come in at about 40% of most predictions.

When we have a decided trend in qpf, sometimes, just sometimes it may be picking up on something.

Go figure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

True, yeah, this one came so close to us.

Radar right now shows the edge of death band two about 55 miles s&e of ack. Maybe even a shade out from shade out from what the euro had which was always a miss on storm twos worst.

Remember the gfs run or two that had one wrapped up low? Heh. I fell into it a little too. If we had nothing but the euro to forecast off of for 90% of the area it would have been better.

Most models were okay with part 1. Early to mid last night ncep stuff stunk overdoing snow on the cape. And they kind of stunk bad with this third shot. Hrrr and rap I thought were very good in showing the heaviest missing us from about 15 hours out. Hrrr never bit on more than an additional 3-6 which seems like it will work out pretty well aside of some oes bands.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

When we have a decided trend in qpf, sometimes, just sometimes it may be picking up on something.

Go figure.

Well in the interest of accuracy it was much more than just qpf. The 2nd low itself was getting shoved seaward every six hours. Like I said the euro was off but didn't overdo it. This time it won handily and the ncep stuff did nothing but backpedal inside of 20 or 36 hours.

Not surprising because as will says it scores better. I think on this system it kind or regained some "inside of 48" dominance. Rgem too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...