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Jan 21/22 winter storm Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Ah well. Just another thing to experience and hopefully learn from

Humility is a bitter thing

 

It was always nbd here but I'm a little shocked how much of ORH Co. got completely denied.  Usually not the case even with sharp cutoffs.

Out here we may go down w/o even a flake falling but still nice to see some weenies get buried by the fluff bomb snow.

Tough forecast for the on air mets.  Can't win in this type of storm.

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It's actually the mid levels. OE is very low level stuff and the lift/subsidence combo from this really doesn;t have a huge effect on your area. The reason why sometimes you get screwed in these events is because naturally the environment favoring ocean effect stuff or enhancement means the airmass is mighty cold even on the coast. When it is cold on the coast...you know the storm track is going to be well SE. A storm track well SE means your area lives on the edge for good WAA/lift/frontogenesis.  So I see what you are saying...but it's not the OE directly...I would blame the synoptic pattern as to why you hate this stuff.  I hope I understood what you said?

Fair enough, Scott.

Thanks for not getting frustrated because I am...plus need sleep.

That explains why this always happens.....I guess I was right for the wrong reason.

 

I get it.

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Fair enough, Scott.

Thanks for not getting frustrated because I am...plus need sleep.

That explains why this always happens.....I guess I was right for the wrong reason.

 

I get it.

 

Ray bottom line most of the time when I'm sub 20 or so when the storm is already underway.....the cold and dry is winning out to an extent.

 

Models all show this trying to orient more N to SW and bending back a bit, you may do some snowing yet.

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It's actually the mid levels. OE is very low level stuff and the lift/subsidence combo from this really doesn;t have a huge effect on your area. The reason why sometimes you get screwed in these events is because naturally the environment favoring ocean effect stuff or enhancement means the airmass is mighty cold even on the coast. When it is cold on the coast...you know the storm track is going to be well SE. A storm track well SE means your area lives on the edge for good WAA/lift/frontogenesis.  So I see what you are saying...but it's not the OE directly...I would blame the synoptic pattern as to why you hate this stuff.  I hope I understood what you said?

 

But its magnified greatly by the OE at the same time

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Just cleared 6 of the fluffiest inches I think I've ever cleared from the driveway. Plow had just gone by and even the end of the driveway almost could've been cleared with a leaf blower. Didn't do a 6 hour measurement today...so officially probably closer to 7"...but whatever. Looks like most of the accumulating snow may be out of here by midnight or shortly after.

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Why does BOX love clear air mode so much?

 

Drives me nuts, makes it harder to see what's up. 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/radar/displayRad.php?icao=KBOX∏=bref1&bkgr=black&endDate=20140122&endTime=-1&duration=3

 

 

But its magnified greatly by the OE at the same time

 

It is but that has nothing to do with why Ray isn't having much snow.  It's just a symptom of the storm setup and not causal to him getting the shaft.

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Pretty sure I saw a few flakes. Meager stuff.

Finally convinced the wife that the kids won't have a snow day tomorrow. She kept citing the language in the WWA in the face of my reports of updated guidance and radar reality. Now that the flags have been dropped she's a believer.

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Makes it looks more ominous that it is?

 

Seriously though, it does help you see some of the weaker returns that could actually be decent snow.

 

I like it near the end of an event or when there's rinkydink low level returns, but I loathe it during the meat and potatoes of a storm. Especially when it flips back and forth.

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