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Jan 21/22 winter storm Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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I def. am of the opinion that the oe plays a role in inhibiting/squashing the nw edge of these ocean lows...probably a product of subsidence, but too many times I have seen the cut off in the same, exact spot.

Right near Boston...same thing in the non waa, 2nd half of 1/2-3.

It is always just NW of MBY. It's uncanny, and I would tend to agree with you.

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This is not an OE CJ. It's 80% mid level stuff.

 

 

I def. am of the opinion that the oe plays a role in inhibiting/squashing the nw edge of these ocean lows...probably a product of subsidence, but too many times I have seen the cut off in the same, exact spot.

Right near Boston...same thing in the non waa, 2nd half of 1/2-3.

I know the deformation is born of mid level deformation, but I think its nw progression gets impeded/haulted by oe attributed susbsidence.

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You did as well as Will

 

Yep, give credit where it is due...he did too. My point was to say that we tried to mention there may be screw zones...but when models are still shifting...you can't get cute with placements of those. The RAP this morning did a nice job hitting this.  I admit I was too far west this morning when I got in and saw the GFS, but the Euro actually wasn't far behind. 

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It is always just NW of MBY. It's uncanny, and I would tend to agree with you.

Yes.

Its not a coincidence.

I get the mid level deformation...its not pure oe, but the oe contribution creates subsidence....tough to argue otherwise imo.

 

I mentioned this exact scenario before the event started.

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I know the deformation is born of mid level deformation, but I think its nw progression gets impeded/haulted by oe attributed susbsidence.

I don't agree with this. The OE is really independent and acts to enhance. When you have mid left stuff too it can seed and feed the oes. They augment one another. If anything the intense fronto forcing can inhibit oes on either side of it to some extent.

The OE was there the last two hours you just couldn't see it under the front stuff. As that fades it's more evident.

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I know the deformation is born of mid level deformation, but I think its nw progression gets impeded/haulted by oe attributed susbsidence.

 

It's actually the mid levels. OE is very low level stuff and the lift/subsidence combo from this really doesn;t have a huge effect on your area. The reason why sometimes you get screwed in these events is because naturally the environment favoring ocean effect stuff or enhancement means the airmass is mighty cold even on the coast. When it is cold on the coast...you know the storm track is going to be well SE. A storm track well SE means your area lives on the edge for good WAA/lift/frontogenesis.  So I see what you are saying...but it's not the OE directly...I would blame the synoptic pattern as to why you hate this stuff.  I hope I understood what you said?

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I'm sure the models won't over trend nw in the sw flow pattern, though.

You'll get your's.

I mentioned this in one post, but what scared me is that this one had all the makings of an oe shuffle in that the heavy snow haults at Boston.

Same thing in 1/2-3, except we were saved by the initial waa surge.

That wasn't there this time.

Well with the SW flow pattern what often happens is the secondary low is modeled too far NW...that's when this area gets the 7-10 split, as the developing secondary heads further SE and jackpots Dendrite again, haha.

I have no idea how Dendrite doesn't average 130" per year :lol:

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It's actually the mid levels. OE is very low level stuff and the lift/subsidence combo from this really doesn;t have a huge effect on your area. The reason why sometimes you get screwed in these events is because naturally the environment favoring ocean effect stuff or enhancement means the airmass is mighty cold even on the coast. When it is cold on the coast...you know the storm track is going to be well SE. A storm track well SE means your area lives on the edge for good WAA/lift/frontogenesis. So I see what you are saying...but it's not the OE directly...I would blame the synoptic pattern as to why you hate this stuff. I hope I understood what you said?

If the system is favorable for OE enhancement Boston south it's probably not a Favorable system for him. 100% like you said its synoptic. OE is just the end result

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