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Jan 21/22 winter storm Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Snow lightening up here. Kinda shocked considering its only 9pm.

It's over. There was a failure with regards to the mid levels reforming closer to the coast. Not enough upstream ridging to slow the stream down. Great storm IMO......10" of primo fluff. Can't lose around here with that.

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I'm sure the models won't over trend nw in the sw flow pattern, though.

You'll get your's.

I mentioned this in one post, but what scared me is that this one had all the makings of an oe shuffle in that the heavy snow haults at Boston.

Same thing in 1/2-3, except we were saved by the initial waa surge.

That wasn't there this time.

That was a good call
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Ok...why is that I'm on the n edge of the QPF that we apparently don't need, and is always too far s, yet I can't muster an inch.

Riddle me that.

I kept hearing how the snowgrowth was so great...there won't be a screw job like 1-2...this one is better looking. lol

You know how I felt 12 hours ago. The qpf trend was a red flag.

What's dumping now by scooter is moving sw. It's now more and more oes. I'm not buying the late night band making it this far nw.

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This was one of those times 700mb uvvs was very useful too.

The models were fine overall. Gfs is always too widespread. Rgem and euro had this well overall.

Likewise if I were box I would be sweating the cape right now. Based on the latest.radar does look good though

At least here in sne, it was really just that one swath that will get crushed.

 

Pretty much a general bust n and s of it.

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At least here in sne, it was really just that one swath that will get crushed.

 

Pretty much a general bust n and s of it.

 

The RPM fetish was right for north of BOS. It had you just under an inch. It underdid that death band that sat from the neponset river to the hanover area. But the delineation of snow was modelled.

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Ok...why is that I'm on the n edge of the QPF that we apparently don't need, and is always too far s, yet I can't muster an inch.

Riddle me that.

 

I kept hearing how the snowgrowth was so great...there won't be a screw job like 1-2...this one is better looking. lol

Well the snow growth is great in the banding. Outside of that and you have shallower and weaker lift to work with. Plus you're dealing with some mesoscale subsidence. You would have to do a core, but you're not pulling the 20-25:1 they're pulling under those 35dBZs.

 

I feel like we talk about this a lot when throwing around ideas before a storm. The deformation band being the main show had been talked about for the past 2 days. Where it exactly sets up and how quasistationary it is for how long are obvious the main Q's. We know there will be screw zones north of the band and a relative screw zone between the main band and the CBB from meso subsidence.

 

Like Will often says, QPF is one of the worst forecasted parameters. In hindsight it shouldn't have been difficult to envision what is transpiring tonight.

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That was a good call

I'm glad the guys down s are enjoying it.

 

I personally loathe oe events....never benefit one bit from them because the convergence created by the shape of the n shore greatly impedes its inland penetration, and more often than not, the heavy synoptic snow is resistant to crossing Boston proper, or the n extent of the oe contributions of the S shore.

Many fascinating processes at play, but unfortunately every single one of them act to inhibit snowfall in this particular locale.

 

1994 is by far the best analog for this season this far....not close.

I lived it, remember it....this is it.

Unbelievably anomalous and protracted stretches of cold, coupled with circle jerk, upon circle jerk for the oe contingent...of which S Weymouth, MA is ground 0.000000000000000000.

Period.

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I mentioned this morning this will have a screw zone..I think I even said that yesterday, I said this was not a classic system driven by WAA and a CCB...it will be a 600 mile long band of mostly frontogeneic forcing. I mentioned that last night. This is what we had.  The problem with these frontogenic systems is that subsidence exists on either side sometimes. That was definitely a risk...but it's impossible to nail it precisely.

 

I did think the banding could have gotten another 30-40 miles west this morning, but that started to go by the wayside quickly. RAP has done an ok job with this. 

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The RPM fetish was right for north of BOS. It had you just under an inch. It underdid that death band that sat from the neponset river to the hanover area. But the delineation of snow was modelled.

 

 

Well the snow growth is great in the banding. Outside of that and you have shallower and weaker lift to work with. Plus you're dealing with some mesoscale subsidence. You would have to do a core, but you're not pulling the 20-25:1 they're pulling under those 35dBZs.

 

I feel like we talk about this a lot when throwing around ideas before a storm. The deformation band being the main show had been talked about for the past 2 days. Where it exactly sets up and how quasistationary it is for how long are obvious the main Q's. We know there will be screw zones north of the band and a relative screw zone between the main band and the CBB from meso subsidence.

 

Like Will often says, QPF is one of the worst forecasted parameters. In hindsight it shouldn't have been difficult to envision what is transpiring tonight.

Yup.

Classic oe circle jerk set up.

I allowed myself to be deluded into thinking I could steal a decent event.

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Well the snow growth is great in the banding. Outside of that and you have shallower and weaker lift to work with. Plus you're dealing with some mesoscale subsidence. You would have to do a core, but you're not pulling the 20-25:1 they're pulling under those 35dBZs.

 

I feel like we talk about this a lot when throwing around ideas before a storm. The deformation band being the main show had been talked about for the past 2 days. Where it exactly sets up and how quasistationary it is for how long are obvious the main Q's. We know there will be screw zones north of the band and a relative screw zone between the main band and the CBB from meso subsidence.

 

Like Will often says, QPF is one of the worst forecasted parameters. In hindsight it shouldn't have been difficult to envision what is transpiring tonight.

 

At some point you need the QPF to forecast snow amount, but like you say you need to look at QPF through the lens of forcing. In this case there was a significant mid level forcing component. If you have good QPF collocated with forcing, great, if you don't maybe you should be skeptical. And if you have no QPF and good forcing, maybe you need to manually input some QPF.

 

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Yeah def OES here. Flake size is great too. That SE advancement of the backedge is stalling right where the OES delineation is

They should continue to rotate and eventually get all of us. This is where the real jackpots may come from.

The morning band I fear we smoke cirrus like Ray is now but we will see. Nam kind of shows the Ccb and OE working in conjunction

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I mentioned this morning this will have a screw zone..I think I even said that yesterday, I said this was not a classic system driven by WAA and a CCB...it will be a 600 mile long band of mostly frontogeneic forcing. I mentioned that last night. This is what we had.  The problem with these frontogenic systems is that subsidence exists on either side sometimes. That was definitely a risk...but it's impossible to nail it precisely.

 

I did think the banding could have gotten another 30-40 miles west this morning, but that started to go by the wayside quickly. RAP has done an ok job with this. 

I def. am of the opinion that the oe plays a role in inhibiting/squashing the nw edge of these ocean lows...probably a product of subsidence, but too many times I have seen the cut off in the same, exact spot.

Right near Boston...same thing in the non waa, 2nd half of 1/2-3.

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I mentioned this morning this will have a screw zone..I think I even said that yesterday, I said this was not a classic system driven by WAA and a CCB...it will be a 600 mile long band of mostly frontogeneic forcing. I mentioned that last night. This is what we had.  The problem with these frontogenic systems is that subsidence exists on either side sometimes. That was definitely a risk...but it's impossible to nail it precisely.

 

I did think the banding could have gotten another 30-40 miles west this morning, but that started to go by the wayside quickly. RAP has done an ok job with this. 

 

You did as well as Will

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