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Jan 21/22 winter storm Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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Raul, put the crack pipe down.

 

I have .75".

 

We have QPF Queens, but we also have Mid Level MILFS.

Ugh.  I'm out of the band.  < 2" here.  Likely will finish there too.  We're cooked.

maybe comes back up a bit seems to be moving north a bit Roosta getting some in Arlington again

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Everyone killed BOX for having 1-3" 48 hours ago, and they were dead on n of town :lol: :lol:

 

Two Lessons:

1) Mid levels are important, but NOT an excuse to ignore blatant TRENDS in QPF....not one wiggle in either direction, but a decided trend.

2) Stop b*tching that BOX is not fast enough to react....they know what they are doing.

The very reason that they adjust slowly, and deliberately is because models tend to over trend. and subsequently correct backwards...which is a possibility that no one wanted to entertain when I, along with a couple of others bandied the idea about....but it was indeed the case.

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Everyone killed BOX for having 1-3" 48 hours ago, and they were dead on n of town :lol: :lol:

Two Lessons:

1) Mid levels are important, but NOT an excuse to ignore blatant TRENDS in QPF....not one wiggle in either direction, but a decided trend.

2) Stop b*tching that BOX is not fast enough to react....they know what they are doing.

The very reason that they adjust slowly, and deliberately is because models tend to over trend. and subsequently correct backwards...which is a possibility that no one wanted to entertain when I, along with a couple of others bandied the idea about....but it was indeed the case.

The over trend NW is very real in American guidance. Has happened every storm so far, even the freaking norlun was supposed to deliver up here from models in the 24/48 hour range to go SE at the last minute into the Boston suburbs. The ECM never bit on that far NW extent either up here and it was correct. If the ECM stays SE it's a flag, reality might still be a bit NW of it but not to the GFS and NAM extent in that 36-54 hour range.

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Just follow the low track at H7

Every time the this happens to Dendrite, he still gets a rouge deform band 850mi from the low center....when I need it, nothing but air drier than an 80 year old nun's hoo hoo, as they get a 1' 20 mi s of me.

 

I'm sure I'll be far enough s to flip to rain and ip, while Dendrite piles up next month.

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Everyone killed BOX for having 1-3" 48 hours ago, and they were dead on n of town :lol: :lol:

Two Lessons:

1) Mid levels are important, but NOT an excuse to ignore blatant TRENDS in QPF....not one wiggle in either direction, but a decided trend.

2) Stop b*tching that BOX is not fast enough to react....they know what they are doing.

The very reason that they adjust slowly, and deliberately is because models tend to over trend. and subsequently correct backwards...which is a possibility that no one wanted to entertain when I, along with a couple of others bandied the idea about....but it was indeed the case.

This was one of those times 700mb uvvs was very useful too.

The models were fine overall. Gfs is always too widespread. Rgem and euro had this well overall.

Likewise if I were box I would be sweating the cape right now. Based on the latest.radar does look good though

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Ray, the only negative thing I said about BOX was that some people were unhappy/surprised about Saturday. I thought they would go up with their totals which they did. And boy did they back down. Even then it was not enough

Many mets missed something. Dry air? One area robbing another?

But boy did some areas get smoked. Awesome

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Many times I have to remind myself of how inexact forecasting chaos can be. Dependency on models. To some degree the atmosphere and resultant weather is just going to do what it damn well pleases. Even at the 11th hour into now-casting some choose to throw-in-the-towel. Big mistake. I'm happy for those that are receiving. It's the chase and always will be for myself as a hobbyist.    

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The over trend NW is very real in American guidance. Has happened every storm so far, even the freaking norlun was supposed to deliver up here from models in the 24/48 hour range to go SE at the last minute into the Boston suburbs. The ECM never bit on that far NW extent either up here and it was correct. If the ECM stays SE it's a flag, reality might still be a bit NW of it but not to the GFS and NAM extent in that 36-54 hour range.

 

Unless its a cutter then we will jackpot

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Every time the this happens to Dendrite, he still gets a rouge deform band 850mi from the low center....when I need it, nothing but air drier than an 80 year old nun's hoo hoo, as they get a 1' 20 mi s of me.

 

I'm sure I'll be far enough s to flip to rain and ip, while Dendrite piles up next month.

:lol: To be fair the sfc lows usually cross somewhere on the Cape. I'm in a climo favorable spot with coastal huggers.

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Every time the this happens to Dendrite, he still gets a rouge deform band 850mi from the low center....when I need it, nothing but air drier than an 80 year old nun's hoo hoo, as they get a 1' 20 mi s of me.

 

I'm sure I'll be far enough s to flip to rain and ip, while Dendrite piles up next month.

 

I can relate, I have seen 2.9" since Jan 3rd of snow

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The over trend NW is very real in American guidance. Has happened every storm so far, even the freaking norlun was supposed to deliver up here from models in the 24/48 hour range to go SE at the last minute into the Boston suburbs. The ECM never bit on that far NW extent either up here and it was correct. If the ECM stays SE it's a flag, reality might still be a bit NW of it but not to the GFS and NAM extent in that 36-54 hour range.

I'm sure the models won't over trend nw in the sw flow pattern, though.

You'll get your's.

 

I mentioned this in one post, but what scared me is that this one had all the makings of an oe shuffle in that the heavy snow haults at Boston.

Same thing in 1/2-3, except we were saved by the initial waa surge.

That wasn't there this time.

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:lol: To be fair the sfc lows usually cross somewhere on the Cape. I'm in a climo favorable spot with coastal huggers.

Ok...why is that I'm on the n edge of the QPF that we apparently don't need, and is always too far s, yet I can't muster an inch.

Riddle me that.

 

I kept hearing how the snowgrowth was so great...there won't be a screw job like 1-2...this one is better looking. lol

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