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Jan 21/22 winter storm Obs


RUNNAWAYICEBERG

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I should add I don't think there's much doubt...the models that were showing a really good hit from CCB type snows over E/SE areas are probably going to bust in the AM.  Looks like that is going to sneak east.  What I'm hoping is raw OE can augment enough to compensate but it's going to be tough.  Cape Cod proper may be in a lot of trouble on those 10" amounts, JMHO.

 

The area getting croaked now is probably the max band for this storm, it will sit pretty much around there as it slowly dwindles before arcing down and around weaker.

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band may be transitioning more Sw to NE now....sinking S on west side lifting N a bit by peabody /rte 1

 

i think it is about to back in for saugus up to cape ann

 

Scott is getting destroyed and it looks to be getting heavier over him. probably 15 inches by midnite there. i mean why not?

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very nice PV. pessimism paying off lol ?

 

 

I never really waivered from this being significant here.  Todays models chopped the N&W edge which despite Kevin's objections as OceanStateWx and others have noted...included Ryan/Ct Rain....if you're on the other side of the gradient this is a very light event.

 

6-10" will do it here I think (this is a little lower than what I thought earlier because I think the morning stuff is going to miss me now and will be left with the lighter snows potentially with some OE).  It's tough to measure so I'm assuming another 2-5" in general.   If I get lucky and a few OES bands crank it could be a lot more, but hard to forecast that and the dry slot is about to run amuck for a bit.

 

I'd definitely be considering toning down the Cape Cod forecasts because they haven't done much.

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We're cooked for more than 3-4'' but could see this coming a mile away.

I don't think we get more than a coating to an inch.  Deformation bands and just nothing making it this far north.  Better luck next time though the next systems I think take the same pattern. Congrats to the south.

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The heaviest snow from this storm has already fallen or is falling now I think.  I don't see this band translating to the SE at this size and intensity.  It will obviously translate and there will be additional enhancement off the water...but this is the peak I think.

 

I think the AM burst is going to be weaker than previously thought.....we will have to see how this plays out but red flags tossed for those to my SW and ESE that haven't been in on this yet and are starting down 4-6".

 

 

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