jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Unlike 1/2-1/3 this is not their storm. The highest amount on the eastern seaboard will be on LI or coastal nj most likely The heaviest amounts there in that storm were really confined to the coast. West of maybe 50 miles from the shore it was basically a moderate snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I never thought i would hear myself say this , but I could care less what the Euro has to say . It has missed a NESIS scale event now for the 2nd time in 1 MONTH . So what if it comes in wet , whatever they did when they tweaked it 2 years ago , they should un tweak it . The NCEP package has cleaned its clock on 2 occasions . OK sorry for the rant . .75 at 20 to 1 , Don't think it needs to get any better anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 arent the high winds going to screw up the ratios significantly? The winds won't be all that high to begin with. And regardless, I think the conditions are too prime for perfect dendrites falling heavily. The best ratios that I saw with the Jan 2-3 event was later in the overnight when it was quite windy -- since the CCB's lifting overrode the wind factor. If you are not in good banding, then the wind will cut into ratios for sure...but if you are, I don't think it makes as much of a difference as people think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOL Bastardi comparing this event to 2/6/67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 You're cutting it a bit short. It looks like 18 hours now. 90% falls in the 12 hour 18z tuesday to 06z Wednesday time frame. Not much before or after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ratio forecast map http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2014012021&id=SREF_snowfall_ratio__ I wish I knew what kind of ratios were forecast up my way for the 1/3 storm. We ended up with 12:1 ratios despite low single digit temperatures (never got into the deeper lift). NWS in Albany was forecasting 15-20:1 for that storm. This map puts ratios up here at 30:1 or higher. Seems like a stretch to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My legs are jittery. Last time that happened was back in January 2011. It usually happens in pretty sizable snowfall events. Anyway, the temps are around freezing now. I'll be up for the 00Z ECM and 06Z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Perhaps there's been a subtle increase in confluence or something, which helps to compress the flow somewhat and blossom precipitation more where it was already going to snow, and cut off precipitation for areas at further north latitudes. Classic example is February 6, 2010. This doesn't mean that our suburbs would suffer, since they are at a much closer latitude to the storm when it is truly maturing. The shortwave itself continuing to trend stronger helps our immediate area, but does not necessarily help areas further north given the aforementioned paragraph. bad week potentially for the SNE crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOL Bastardi comparing this event to 2/6/67 based on h5 maps that is actually a good comp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I wish I knew what kind of ratios were forecast up my way for the 1/3 storm. We ended up with 12:1 ratios despite low single digit temperatures (never got into the deeper lift). NWS in Albany was forecasting 15-20:1 for that storm. This map puts ratios up here at 30:1 or higher. Seems like a stretch to me. Yeah that map gives us 30:1 ratios for majority of the storm.. I highly doubt that let alone 20:1 near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Also shows snowing until 1PM Wednesday in NYC. Yeah that map gives us 30:1 ratios for majority of the storm.. I highly doubt that let alone 20:1 near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 As we wait on the the GEFS, and UKie... The GFS has a similar looking system next Tuesday (1/.28) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So base on timing.. I expect schools to be open on Wednesday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So base on timing.. I expect schools to be open on Wednesday ? Doubt it, it closed on Friday January 3rd for 6 inches and "the cold" so why not Wednesday with potentially double the snow and similar cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm supposed to fly in from ATL at 1050am, hoping nothing is falling yet so I don't deal with it on the ride home You are going to get here just in time for the storm, but most likely land on the runway just before the heavy stuff.. Talk about good timing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Doubt it, it closed on Friday January 3rd for 6 inches and "the cold" so why not Wednesday with potentially double the snow and similar cold temps. Well for that event it was still snowing in the morning. This is expected to end at 3-4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well for that event it was still snowing in the morning. This is expected to end at 3-4am. perhaps, but I have seen ranges of end times from 6AM to 1PM, decision is made at 4AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just a thought here. I'm sure the pros don't want to bust too high, so they're not calling for it yet. However, most of the models are showing about 0.6-0.8" of liquid equivalent precip with the storm and, since it's going to be pretty cold in the best snow growth region at 700 mb or so (several thousand feet up in the atmosphere), dendrites should dominate and the models are showing snow ratios of 15-20:1, i.e., 0.7" of liquid would translate into 10.5-14.0" of snow, verbatim, if those numbers verified. I think they're hesitating to pull the trigger on numbers like that until they see the best short range, high resolution, models tomorrow morning (as most here know, these only go out about 15 hours, so they're not that useful until right before the storm), as well as initial reports on snow ratios. And I completely understand that approach, especially given that in the 1/2 storm, there were many predictions of ratios of 15:1 or more that didn't come to fruition, except well N/W of I-95. However, from what I recall, most of the pros thought that was due to lack of vertical lift, driving supersaturation in the snow growth region, driving optimal dendrite nucleation and growth - and lift and the right temps in the snow growth region (or more accurately where the greatest supersaturation is) are both needed to get high ratios and it's more likely we'll have both this time around. I imagine if we start to see ratios of 15:1 early in the afternoon tomorrow, then we might see the NWS and others up their forecast accumulations by about 50% or so. It doesn't mean we get any more snow, per se, it just means the same amount of liquid precip will result in much deeper (but lighter/less dense) snow - something worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here's a PDF about the 2/6/67 snowstorm that JB mentioned. http://www.atmos.albany.edu/daes/atmclasses/atm400/Handouts_files/Uccellini_Kocin_1987.pdf It's awfully close, but the storm on the models is a tad bit weaker with the SLP and HP. The big difference is that the Sub Tropical jetstream is not involved in the upcoming storm. Very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well for that event it was still snowing in the morning. This is expected to end at 3-4am. Some models have it ending at 1PM Wednesday. Pretty sure schools will be closed again. You have to remember, the majority of NYC school teachers live in long island, the LIRR shuts down after 10 inches of snow. Highways will also be a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Only look at this for entertainment, but...here is SREF 21z....1.5"+ qpf over NENJ/NYC....obviously the bullseye of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM snowfall overlay depicting 12"-15" across NJTP and LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just a thought here. I'm sure the pros don't want to bust too high, so they're not calling for it yet. However, most of the models are showing about 0.6-0.8" of liquid equivalent precip with the storm and, since it's going to be pretty cold in the best snow growth region at 700 mb or so (several thousand feet up in the atmosphere), dendrites should dominate and the models are showing snow ratios of 15-20:1, i.e., 0.7" of liquid would translate into 10.5-14.0" of snow, verbatim, if those numbers verified. I think they're hesitating to pull the trigger on numbers like that until they see the best short range, high resolution, models tomorrow morning (as most here know, these only go out about 15 hours, so they're not that useful until right before the storm), as well as initial reports on snow ratios. And I completely understand that approach, especially given that in the 1/2 storm, there were many predictions of ratios of 15:1 or more that didn't come to fruition, except well N/W of I-95. However, from what I recall, most of the pros thought that was due to lack of vertical lift, driving supersaturation in the snow growth region, driving optimal dendrite nucleation and growth - and lift and the right temps in the snow growth region (or more accurately where the greatest supersaturation is) are both needed to get high ratios and it's more likely we'll have both this time around. I imagine if we start to see ratios of 15:1 early in the afternoon tomorrow, then we might see the NWS and others up their forecast accumulations by about 50% or so. It doesn't mean we get any more snow, per se, it just means the same amount of liquid precip will result in much deeper (but lighter/less dense) snow - something worth watching. Also the winds were ripping in the snow growth region from what mets were saying (which affects ratios negatively). Good thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yup hopefully all wealth is shared but i got burned in boxing day, ended up with "only" 18" while colts neck got over 30", earthlight stole my show Consider yourself lucky. Boxing day left 12" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Also the winds were ripping in the snow growth region from what mets were saying (which affects ratios negatively). Good thoughts No offense, but I don't buy that argument - or at least not without some substantive rationale provided. I won't argue with the pros on a lot of things, but I will on snow crystal nucleation and growth. One has to have high vertical velocities (lift) to drive the supersaturation levels necessary to obtain the dendritic growth which gives high ratio snow - and by definition, high vertical velocities translates to localized "winds" in the snow growth region. Pretty sure the velocities of the air parcels in that region are not enough to affect the microscale (way, way smaller than mesoscale) environment where snow crystals are forming and growing. I could be wrong, as it's possible snow nucleation/growth is more delicate than I thought, but it doesn't seem intuitive to me that that would be the case. For what it's worth I have a few patents on crystallization and growth of organic molecules (pharma industry) - it's not exactly the same as snow growth, but the processes should be very similar in many respects. In fact, I'd love to talk to a met who really knows the snow angle to see how different they are or are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I think they were saying the wind was ripping the dendrites apart.. Not sure though as I am not a met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anyone going to cover the 00Z ECM? I don't have the proper resources. :/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A friend tells me its further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anyone going to cover the 00Z ECM? I don't have the proper resources. :/If no one else does, I guess I can go on WB for a few mins and look. Its comes out after SV does though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Also being told it has more Northwest expansion of precip field with an area of heavy qpf over central and north jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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