Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The GGEM had a much different UL configuration when it "had" this storm, so it's getting DQ'ed. I'd agree the SREF (specifically the ARW members) have been amazing so far. Using GS4 Tapatalk Eh the ARW members are a little too robust to say the least. Still will give them credit for hinting to this event earlier than most models though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NAM is still hammering away at the idea of a very impressive frontogenically forced band. Within this band I think the best lift in the snow growth area and the favorable ratios can really go to down. The models have been pretty consistent with this and now the GFS is pushing the favorable vertical velocities northwest into this area as well. This pretty much shifts northeastward from DCA to PHL and NYC including points southeast of there. There will likely be subsidence on the NW side of this, in fact I would be shocked if there wasn't. But I think the bands will wobble and bit and there probably will be a band on the periphery of precipitation over NW NJ as well. The best rates will certainly come underneath this signaled band over Central/Northeast NJ and Western Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not BD at all . Banding gona be hard to figure out , use the VV will gev u a good idea , like I said , this has you`re name on it . and CN Ok VV's look great for the areas you mentioned so no alarm yet for coastal areas. Thanks for the clarification again paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Beautiful 700mb vertical velocities and signal for enhanced lift in a band from PHL to NYC. Heavy, heavy happiness. It was clear as day that a mid level pattern like was shown at 12z would result in a big storm for us, regardless of the QPF panels. Glad to see it coming through tonight. I think NWS will up the amounts in the overnight updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looking back a few days ago and now seeing these runs, crazy. Enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NAM is still hammering away at the idea of a very impressive frontogenically forced band. Within this band I think the best lift in the snow growth area and the favorable ratios can really go to down. The models have been pretty consistent with this and now the GFS is pushing the favorable vertical velocities northwest into this area as well. This pretty much shifts northeastward from DCA to PHL and NYC including points southeast of there. There will likely be subsidence on the NW side of this, in fact I would be shocked if there wasn't. But I think the bands will wobble and bit and there probably will be a band on the periphery of precipitation over NW NJ as well. The best rates will certainly come underneath this signaled band over Central/Northeast NJ and Western Long Island. frontb21.png Thats a CNJ/NENJ, NYC and LI jackpot their sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NAM is still hammering away at the idea of a very impressive frontogenically forced band. Within this band I think the best lift in the snow growth area and the favorable ratios can really go to down. The models have been pretty consistent with this and now the GFS is pushing the favorable vertical velocities northwest into this area as well. This pretty much shifts northeastward from DCA to PHL and NYC including points southeast of there. There will likely be subsidence on the NW side of this, in fact I would be shocked if there wasn't. But I think the bands will wobble and bit and there probably will be a band on the periphery of precipitation over NW NJ as well. The best rates will certainly come underneath this signaled band over Central/Northeast NJ and Western Long Island. frontb21.png Wow, if that's right the city and east/south will get rocked for a few hours. Nice signal there for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The cold air, though more of an afterthought, looks really impressive with and after the storm. We're probably talking near or below zero degrees after the storm to the N&W and single digits elsewhere with windchills down to -10 or lower, making the storm especially dangerous for commuters. Temperatures during the storm will likely be in the mid to upper teens, so very similar to Jan 3 with the cold. Road conditions will also be terrible during rush hour as all will be snow covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 With more banding, lift, and instability with this storm compared to the January 3 event, everyone should get higher ratios than they say with that event. 20:1 seems reasonable, IMO. Feels so weird calling a 20:1 ratio 'reasonable.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There seems to be much more wiggle room with this band than what was modeled for storms like the BDB and 1/27 systems. Should be some interesting nowcasting Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 If you go by this chart made by the NWS no one will be under 15" lol.... Snowfall Meltwater Table.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The cold air, though more of an afterthought, looks really impressive with and after the storm. We're probably talking near or below zero degrees after the storm to the N&W and single digits elsewhere with windchills down to -10 or lower, making the storm especially dangerous for commuters. Temperatures during the storm will likely be in the mid to upper teens, so very similar to Jan 3 with the cold. Road conditions will also be terrible during rush hour as all will be snow covered. Yeah, I was thinking about that as well. Interesting how NY shut down so many major highways in anticipation of that storm, and this storm, while not having as significant winds as 1/3, will likely deliver more snow and the temperatures will be just as cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Well,I'll wait for the EURO at 12:45 before calling it a night.\ Looks like here in SW Nassau we are good for 6-10 inches My only question is duration? 12 hour event or 18 hour event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NAM is still hammering away at the idea of a very impressive frontogenically forced band. Within this band I think the best lift in the snow growth area and the favorable ratios can really go to down. The models have been pretty consistent with this and now the GFS is pushing the favorable vertical velocities northwest into this area as well. This pretty much shifts northeastward from DCA to PHL and NYC including points southeast of there. There will likely be subsidence on the NW side of this, in fact I would be shocked if there wasn't. But I think the bands will wobble and bit and there probably will be a band on the periphery of precipitation over NW NJ as well. The best rates will certainly come underneath this signaled band over Central/Northeast NJ and Western Long Island. frontb21.png that would be amazing.. quick question... in cases where subsidence does occur, how far away does it usually happen from the deformation band. for example if the deformation band is setting up right over NYC - is there an appx idea of how far n/w the subs. sets up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anyone have the Canadian color qpf maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 that would be amazing.. quick question... in cases where subsidence does occur, how far away does it usually happen from the deformation band. for example if the deformation band is setting up right over NYC - is there an appx idea of how far n/w the subs. sets up? Depends on several things including the size and intensity of the band and the amount of dry air near the storm system. In several events we've seen these massive deformation bands set up with much lighter precipitation amounts to the west of them. But in other situations we've seen that the best rates simply occur in the band, while areas in the subsidence are still snowing moderately, just not at the same intensity as where the best lift is. It'll come down to the wire tomorrow...and the mesoscale models in all likelihood are going to jump around with the exact placement of the banding until game time. It simply is too intricate to predict with reasonable accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mt Holly upped again, expanding the 8-10 and increasing the western zones slightly. 4-6 a good call for my neck of woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anyone have the Canadian color qpf maps? Anyone who argued that the RGEM was similar to its 18z run is crazy. This has bumped NW by 50 miles or more in our area. It also dropped QPF in Southern New England a bit which was probably causing confusing for those on our forum who were reading over there. But quite simply it is wetter and farther NW for our area with the banding signal near i-95 and points SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ratio forecast map http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2014012021&id=SREF_snowfall_ratio__ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Anyone who argued that the RGEM was similar to its 18z run is crazy. This has bumped NW by 50 miles or more in our area. It also dropped QPF in Southern New England a bit which was probably causing confusing for those on our forum who were reading over there. But quite simply it is wetter and farther NW for our area with the banding signal near i-95 and points SE. rgem_tprecip_slp_neng_17.png Seems to be some concern in the New England forum about the storm maxing out too soon for them and the big time activity here dying out by the time it gets to them. It does seem that the upper air lows get north to a certain point before fading east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ratio forecast map http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2014012021&id=SREF_snowfall_ratio__ Very impressive over parts of Central and Northeast NJ where there's 0.6 to 0.7" liquid modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ratio forecast map http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2014012021&id=SREF_snowfall_ratio__ Solid 24 hours of snow with the snowfall ratios averaging around 20:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ratio forecast map http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=2014012021&id=SREF_snowfall_ratio__ 30:1 at the end of the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Seems to be some concern in the New England forum about the storm maxing out too soon for them and the big time activity here dying out by the time it gets to them. It does seem that the upper air lows get north to a certain point before fading east a bit. Unlike 1/2-1/3 this is not their storm. The highest amount on the eastern seaboard will be on LI or coastal nj most likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Very impressive over parts of Central and Northeast NJ where there's 0.6 to 0.7" liquid modeled. arent the high winds going to screw up the ratios significantly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 24 hour duration? doubt it, more like 15 hours from noon tomorrow to 3AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Seems to be some concern in the New England forum about the storm maxing out too soon for them and the big time activity here dying out by the time it gets to them. It does seem that the upper air lows get north to a certain point before fading east a bit. Perhaps there's been a subtle increase in confluence or something, which helps to compress the flow somewhat and blossom precipitation more where it was already going to snow, and cut off precipitation for areas at further north latitudes. Classic example is February 6, 2010. This doesn't mean that our suburbs would suffer, since they are at a much closer latitude to the storm when it is truly maturing. The shortwave itself continuing to trend stronger helps our immediate area, but does not necessarily help areas further north given the aforementioned paragraph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, I was thinking about that as well. Interesting how NY shut down so many major highways in anticipation of that storm, and this storm, while not having as significant winds as 1/3, will likely deliver more snow and the temperatures will be just as cold. As discussed earlier no B word used. That and we are further into the winter and people start loose interest. It's NY it snows in the winter type thing. Certain buzz words like blizzard and hurricane get people to react we don't even have to go there with sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 24 hour duration? doubt it, more like 15 hours from noon tomorrow to 3AM You're cutting it a bit short. It looks like 18 hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 arent the high winds going to screw up the ratios significantly? Winds are modeled to be fairly light away from the coastal plain all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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