PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That was wxbell. It's probably suppose to be .75+, still very impressive. Been there buddy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So incredibly jealous it's not even funny. Enjoy this guys. If your going to take something away from the runs so far tonight, it's that there will be a large area of precip with an embedded death band that will wobble and tilt. This will ultimately crush many folks with 10-14" and leave other with maybe half that. gfsNE_700_vvel_021.gif Using GS4 Tapatalk Models are strongly arguing tonight for a big heavy snow band to sit along I-95 and maybe just SE for a time tomorrow night. Could be thunder and 2"/hour rates in that. I think some of us will see 12" from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 5pm rush with be gridlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Does anyone know when was the last time the GFS was more aggressive on QPF than the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Feeling very confident now that coastal areas have a good shot getting thundersnow. Not a weenie statement to figure that out, the banding is going to be insane on LI. 12"+ LI here we come! Maybe but remember boxing day LI was supposed to get the brunt and the heaviest band set up west of NYC ..can always shift 20-30 miles more nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 5pm rush with be gridlock I'm really hoping my boss lets me go home early. The way this is forcasted it is going to be really bad for rush hour, not good. Maybe if we are lucky the nasty stuff will hold off until 7-8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 sv snowfall maps have 8-10 from phl-nyc with lollies of 12+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Models are strongly arguing tonight for a big heavy snow band to sit along I-95 and maybe just SE for a time tomorrow night. Could be thunder and 2"/hour rates in that. I think some of us will see 12" from this. Not only are the model images impressive but the soundings and bufkit show support for very heavy snow with tremendous lift within the snow growth region. Somebody within the heavy bands is going to come in above snow forecasts I can almost guarantee that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 5pm rush with be gridlock With some gusty winds will be white out conditions. Tough commute for some folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Select QPF: BDR: 0.64" EWR: 0.63" HPN: 0.56" HVN: 0.63" ISP: 0.71" JFK: 0.68" LGA: 0.63" NYC: 0.62" PHL: 0.64" POU: 0.36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Maybe but remember boxing day LI was supposed to get the brunt and the heaviest band set up west of NYC ..can always shift 20-30 miles more nw Yup! I got really screwed on that one. That was a dissapointment, im hoping we actually cash in on the banding here considering LI and coastal are suppose to see the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Does anyone know when was the last time the GFS was more aggressive on QPF than the NAM? Like the 1/2-1/3 storm the gfs has been remarkably consistent from run to run. I believe it was wetter then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 With those VV and .75 - its 10 to 15 in that corridor . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm really hoping my boss lets me go home early. The way this is forcasted it is going to be really bad for rush hour, not good. Maybe if we are lucky the nasty stuff will hold off until 7-8pm I'm supposed to fly in from ATL at 1050am, hoping nothing is falling yet so I don't deal with it on the ride home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Paul you see a boxing day redux where west of LI ends up getting the heaviest totals while Coastal areas get stuck in subsidence? Happened then dont know if that would apply here ( serious question dont say weenie, not good at some of this ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm still giving the ARW the victory since the GGEM lost the storm. The GFS is defying my outdated logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yup! I got really screwed on that one. That was a dissapointment, im hoping we actually cash in on the banding here considering LI and coastal are suppose to see the most snow The track probably still favors I95 s&e for the heaviest snow but hopefully areas further north and west get into the heavy stuff this time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Look for the death band to set up around Long Branch and pivot westward as the storm bombs out. Wouldn't be shocked to hear numerous reports of thundersnow joining rates of 2"+/hr. If we could have these lapse rates during spring, no one would ever complain about severe storms lol Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Don what's KBLM and Sandy hook K56N? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 any chance of a blizzard warning anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The track probably still favors I95 s&e for the heaviest snow but hopefully areas further north and west get into the heavy stuff this time too Yup hopefully all wealth is shared but i got burned in boxing day, ended up with "only" 18" while colts neck got over 30", earthlight stole my show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Paul you see a boxing day redux where west of LI ends up getting the heaviest totals while Coastal areas get stuck in subsidence? Happened then dont know if that would apply here ( serious question dont say weenie, not good at some of this ) Not BD at all . Banding gona be hard to figure out , use the VV will gev u a good idea , like I said , this has you`re name on it . and CN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 any chance of a blizzard warning anywhere? Coastal Connecticut possibly. That's about it. Mainly blizzard like conditions for LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 time for bed for this guy….but for tomorrow evening the banding is going absolutely blitz on i-95 for a few hours…1-3 hr rates and thunder…get ready guys! Props to earthlight and isotherms for great insight with this pattern, those two are def going to be great forecasters.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Don what's KBLM and Sandy hook K56N? Thanks. BLM: 0.66" 56N: 0.69" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NAM has never shown it's typical ridiculous solutions with this storm, instead the SREF's are doing double duty lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm still giving the ARW the victory since the GGEM lost the storm. The GFS is defying my outdated logic. The GGEM had a much different UL configuration when it "had" this storm, so it's getting DQ'ed. I'd agree the SREF (specifically the ARW members) have been amazing so far. Using GS4 Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Not only are the model images impressive but the soundings and bufkit show support for very heavy snow with tremendous lift within the snow growth region. Somebody within the heavy bands is going to come in above snow forecasts I can almost guarantee that. What's your expert eye telling you as far as ratios go? Eclipsing 15:1 possible for even the most urban places in the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 time for bed for this guy….but for tomorrow evening the banding is going absolutely blitz on i-95 for a few hours…1-3 hr rates and thunder…get ready guys! Props to earthlight and isotherms for great insight with this pattern, those two are def going to be great forecasters.. X2 on that brother! Maybe they'll ressurect TWC to its old glory days, one can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I have never heard thunder with temperatures below 20 degrees. I've heard thunder and seen lightning during snowstorms but never anything close to what the forecast is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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