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Jan 21-22 Coastal Crusher Discussion/Model Thread


earthlight

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MT HOLLY .

 

SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING. THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS INDICATES ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC BANDING/FORCING SETTING
UP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENS
OFF OF THE COAST. IN ADDITION, THIS TAKES PLACE AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD EVENING. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDED
HEAVIER BANDS DEVELOPING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THESE
BANDS OR A SINGLE BAND BECOME STATIONARY FOR AWHILE OR IF THEY ARE
MORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW AREA ENDS UP PIVOTING BACK ON ITSELF FOR AWHILE AS THE ENTIRE
SYSTEM DEEPENS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

 

UPTON , says still go 15 - 20 to 1 .

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Those in the New England forum said the Rgem ticked SE and was worse for them, why was that the case.

I didn't see it so I'm not sure, although some models today kind of occluded the storm at our latitude so maybe that's why (think boxing day on a much lesser scale)
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SREF AND NAM ALL HAVE SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS OF 20-25:1 IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH IS HIGHER
THAN 15-20:1 USED FOR CURRENT FORECAST. IF OTHER DATA SUPPORT
THESE RATIOS...THEN AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE TO BE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.
FOR NOW...JUST WILL ADD WORDING OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN ALL SEGMENTS WITH REFRESH OF WSW PRODUCT THIS EVENING.

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SREF AND NAM ALL HAVE SNOW TO

LIQUID RATIOS OF 20-25:1 IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH IS HIGHER

THAN 15-20:1 USED FOR CURRENT FORECAST. IF OTHER DATA SUPPORT

THESE RATIOS...THEN AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE TO BE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.

FOR NOW...JUST WILL ADD WORDING OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE

IN ALL SEGMENTS WITH REFRESH OF WSW PRODUCT THIS EVENING.

 

wow wow

 

get crazy

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That's asinine. No one will see 25:1

15-1 is probably better to go by, maybe 20-1 in spots. Parts of the storm will have higher ratios, other parts lower ratios. It all depends on where the lifting is strongest in the atmosphere and at what temps the lifting is strongest. We want it at -12 to -18C, that's where dendrite formation is best.

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We have had 20 to 1 at KNYC in the past , if you are ever going to get it this is the set  check out the VV maps

John threw up before that's coming right thru the slot , couple that with 700mb temps in the minus 12c to minus 18c range .

If it happens I will not be shocked .

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