SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It was a 25+ mile shift NW with the NW periphery of banding just glancing at the black and white 400,000 x 400,000 pixel maps which are still basically unreadable. Can you post the QPF from the Rgem when it's available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 .6-.7 for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Can you post the QPF from the Rgem when it's available? It will be a couple minutes. We'll get better graphics momentarily though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It will be a couple minutes. We'll get better graphics momentarily though. Ok great, those are a lot easier to understand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New RGEM hammers is. Shifts much further NW with precip heavy banding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 MT HOLLY . SNOW WILL BEGIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH THEAFTERNOON. THE SNOW SHOULD BECOME MODERATE TO HEAVY AT TIMES DURINGTHE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD EVENING. THE GENERAL MODELCONSENSUS INDICATES ENHANCED FRONTOGENETIC BANDING/FORCING SETTINGUP IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES AND STRENGTHENSOFF OF THE COAST. IN ADDITION, THIS TAKES PLACE AS THE UPPER-LEVELTROUGH STARTS TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT TOWARD EVENING. THISSHOULD RESULT IN A SHIELD OF SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH EMBEDDEDHEAVIER BANDS DEVELOPING. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THESEBANDS OR A SINGLE BAND BECOME STATIONARY FOR AWHILE OR IF THEY AREMORE TRANSIENT. THIS MAY BE THE CASE WHERE THE MODERATE TO HEAVYSNOW AREA ENDS UP PIVOTING BACK ON ITSELF FOR AWHILE AS THE ENTIRESYSTEM DEEPENS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. UPTON , says still go 15 - 20 to 1 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just wanted to stop in and say congrats, you folks are in for a nice winter event and deserve it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New RGEM hammers is. Shifts much further NW with precip heavy banding Those in the New England forum said the Rgem ticked SE and was worse for them, why was that the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just wanted to stop in and say congrats, you folks are in for a nice winter event and deserve it! Thank you hippy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just wanted to stop in and say congrats, you folks are in for a nice winter event and deserve it! very kind of you & hope ur forcast ramps up too. There is enough snow to go around for all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 overview http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/255/ differential vorticity advectionSPC forecast tools http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/ sure looks dynamic as hell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 These runs are just porn for us with ratios. Upton just weenied out on there latest update. It's on boys! Wooohoooo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Those in the New England forum said the Rgem ticked SE and was worse for them, why was that the case.I didn't see it so I'm not sure, although some models today kind of occluded the storm at our latitude so maybe that's why (think boxing day on a much lesser scale) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 SREF AND NAM ALL HAVE SNOW TOLIQUID RATIOS OF 20-25:1 IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH IS HIGHERTHAN 15-20:1 USED FOR CURRENT FORECAST. IF OTHER DATA SUPPORTTHESE RATIOS...THEN AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE TO BE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY.FOR NOW...JUST WILL ADD WORDING OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLEIN ALL SEGMENTS WITH REFRESH OF WSW PRODUCT THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 SREF AND NAM ALL HAVE SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS OF 20-25:1 IN BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WHICH IS HIGHER THAN 15-20:1 USED FOR CURRENT FORECAST. IF OTHER DATA SUPPORT THESE RATIOS...THEN AMOUNTS WOULD HAVE TO BE INCREASED ACCORDINGLY. FOR NOW...JUST WILL ADD WORDING OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ALL SEGMENTS WITH REFRESH OF WSW PRODUCT THIS EVENING. wow wow get crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 These runs are just porn for us with ratios. Upton just weenied out on there latest update. It's on boys! Wooohoooo lol, yup....mentioning 20-25:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's on like donkey kong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 These runs are just porn for us with ratios. Upton just weenied out on there latest update. It's on boys! Wooohoooo lol, yup....mentioning 20-25:1 That's asinine. No one will see 25:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's asinine. No one will see 25:1 15 is likely , but still kool to see an office put that out , and not one of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's asinine. No one will see 25:1 Give reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Gfs is really amped up from 18z….big hit incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 00z GFS is amped up, maybe even more so than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's asinine. No one will see 25:1 15-1 is probably better to go by, maybe 20-1 in spots. Parts of the storm will have higher ratios, other parts lower ratios. It all depends on where the lifting is strongest in the atmosphere and at what temps the lifting is strongest. We want it at -12 to -18C, that's where dendrite formation is best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 hr 21 steady snow mod snow dca-phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 its ripping at hr 21 dca-ttn ccb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 GFS is better than 18z wow. Of course keeping Earthlights comments about lower res model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Crushed hour 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 hr 24 crushing ccb…whole area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We have had 20 to 1 at KNYC in the past , if you are ever going to get it this is the set check out the VV maps John threw up before that's coming right thru the slot , couple that with 700mb temps in the minus 12c to minus 18c range . If it happens I will not be shocked . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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