It's Always Sunny Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 700-850mb frontogenesis increasing over NYC area There's a really nice band with that right now if you look at radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 There's a really nice band with that right now if you look at radar. Yeah, I think the idea though is that the band will shift northward with time as the frontogenic forcing continues to increase slightly farther north and expand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 No shift south on the latest HRRR. Still .5"+ for everyone in this area and the band expands northward The latest RAP actually moved it north a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 No shift south on the latest HRRR. Still .5"+ for everyone in this area and the band expands northward The latest RAP actually moved it north a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The new Euro shows the height of the storm for NNJ around 00z. 0.25"+ for most to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah, I think the idea though is that the band will shift northward with time as the frontogenic forcing continues to increase slightly farther north and expand. It will run into some dry air just to the north of NYC. REGIONAL WEATHER ROUNDUP NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1200 PM EST TUE JAN 21 2014 NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CENTRAL PARK N/A 19 16 86 MISG N/A LAGUARDIA APRT SNOW 20 15 81 N14 29.99F VSB 1/2 WCI 7 KENNEDY INTL SNOW 21 16 81 NE17 29.99F VSB 1/2 WCI 7 NEWARK/LIBERTY SNOW 19 16 88 N18 29.99F VSB 1/2 WCI 4 TETERBORO SNOW 19 12 73 N7G18 29.99F VSB 1/2 WCI 10 $ HUDSON VALLEY CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS WHITE PLAINS SNOW 16 11 80 N12 29.96F VSB 1/2 WCI 3 NEWBURGH NOT AVBL MONTGOMERY LGT SNOW 15 8 73 NE9 30.00F WCI 3 POUGHKEEPSIE MIX PCPN 16 0 48 N13 30.03F WCI 2 ALBANY CLOUDY 8 -6 52 NE5 30.11S WCI 0 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That band is creating some definite subsidence and you can almost see a secondary type band (nowhere near as strong) back in the Lehigh Valley. Some of the models this AM had this feature... For those to the N and W, that area is the one to watch because this mega band ain't making it up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 And maybe I'm crazy, but it definitely seems to have been snowing quite a bit better than the radar returns are showing up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RAP shows a very accurate depiction of the snow band! It moves it into the NENJ area, but weakens it on the NE part of the band and stays strong down near philly. It seems to be doing just that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That band is creating some definite subsidence and you can almost see a secondary type band (nowhere near as strong) back in the Lehigh Valley. Some of the models this AM had this feature... For those to the N and W, that area is the one to watch because this mega band ain't making it up here! Thats what the Srefs were picking up on yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The band is co-locating with the greater area of mid-level frontogenetic forcing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The band is co-locating with the greater area of mid-level frontogenetic forcing: LI id going to do ALOT better than 1-3-14. This band just is moving nowhere fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm passing through Valley Stream now and it's amazing how fast conditions are deteriorating. Visibility here has to be under 0.25 mile. This band will be awesome, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Models are doing pretty decent picking out the location and intensity of the band. Even the 06Z NAM pegged that fronto band that's going to trek NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow PHL definitely the jackpot area on the new RAP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow PHL definitely the jackpot area on the new RAP!We got you the first time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I may be looking at it wrong, but why does the snow depth map on the RAP only show roughly 5 inches of snow out to 18 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I may be looking at it wrong, but why does the snow depth map on the RAP only show roughly 5 inches of snow out to 18 hours? 10:1 ratios as default. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 All of the models are indicating what I call a "panic period" later this morning and early afternoon as the initial slug of precipitation weakens a bit. But they all show banding rapidly increasing thereafter. Save this post -- I bet you all money we start to see people freaking out that the radar looks dry and too far south around 2pm. Anyway, here's what follows and moves N: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I may be looking at it wrong, but why does the snow depth map on the RAP only show roughly 5 inches of snow out to 18 hours? Its not accounting for ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Excellent call John. I live in Kenilworth and those heavy bands are just south of us. If should start ripping very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Its not accounting for ratios Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Ha! That's been happening for two hours! I will never forget when you called the "shadowing" panic in a storm last Xmas time. Played out perfect just like this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 You can see the band redeveloping from PHL to NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 15z SREF's still have 0.25"+ NW areas and 0.50"+ for most everyone else. Shows a very intense band making it to around KMMU by 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's all 10 to 1 , PLACES goin 20 to 1 all AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That's all 10 to 1 , PLACES goin 20 to 1 all AM 12 to 16 inches of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12 to 16 inches. Bit much don't you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Bit much don't you think? In some places NO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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