Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Jan 21-22 Coastal Crusher Discussion/Model Thread


earthlight

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 664
  • Created
  • Last Reply

NYC schools rarely close.. so if it does end at 1-2am.. you don't need anyone to tell you, that it will be open ..I guess. :)

You must be used to the Bloomberg administration. You have to remember some things. 1) Deblasio is a new mayor, he wants to make him self look good. 2) he is a democratic mayor, definitely not as conservative as Bloomberg, same can be said about the new schools chancellor. 3) A few weeks ago he closed down the schools, mostly because of the cold weather and not because of the little snow we had. Tomorrow will be just as cold, and probably still snowing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HRRR not doing well right now. Not picking up on the heavy snow in SNJ, looks like it has the band a good 50+ miles to far NW.

The HEAVIER snow total may be East of the TPKE , HRRR  runs along it . As this pivots , you will really see where the axis sets up 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here comes the major freak out, I can sense it. I'm getting light to moderate snow here and I'm currently only under 5-10dbz returns. That heavy banding down south is forecast to move northward and fall apart some, but not before dumping warning criteria snowfall on the area. This slight tick downward in QPF on the globals is very typical as an event is ongoing. It's better to use the high res modeling at this point and observations. Those are your best bet. Nobody was really forecasted in this forum to be in heavy snow until mid-afternoon.

Just wondering that myself, I said looking at that great band in Central NJ I wonder how many are about to jump off there roof right now. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here comes the major freak out, I can sense it. I'm getting light to moderate snow here and I'm currently only under 5-10dbz returns. That heavy banding down south is forecast to move northward and fall apart some, but not before dumping warning criteria snowfall on the area. This slight tick downward in QPF on the globals is very typical as an event is ongoing. It's better to use the high res modeling at this point and observations. Those are your best bet. Nobody was really forecasted in this forum to be in heavy snow until mid-afternoon.

Just wondering that myself, I said looking at that great band in Central NJ I wonder how many are about to jump off there roof right now. 

Lol it will begin to pivot in the next hour or so...:still....that area under the band now will be the jackpot because as it pivots, it doesn't shut down there....just alters it's angle and expends N and S....like a seesaw

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NYC schools rarely close.. so if it does end at 1-2am.. you don't need anyone to tell you, that it will be open ..I guess. :)

That's ridiculous for schools to open just because it stops snowing a couple of hours before the morning commute. There will still be blowing and drifting along with frigid temps. I bet a lot of the secondary/tertiary roads won't be clear of snow tomorrow morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's ridiculous for schools to open just because it stops snowing a couple of hours before the morning commute. There will still be blowing and drifting along with frigid temps. I bet a lot of the secondary/tertiary roads won't be clear of snow tomorrow morning.

Does NYC really close schools for storms of less than a foot now-a-days?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wow, that's kind of pathetic not going to lie. If that's the case, then It wouldn't shock me at all if NYC schools closed down considering the snow and cold.

Don't forget that a majority of the staff that works in NYC schools drives to the city from Long Island. If it's 6+ inches of snow, it is very difficult for the teachers to make it in to school. Kids would be there with no teachers or Admin to supervise them...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just wondering that myself, I said looking at that great band in Central NJ I wonder how many are about to jump off there roof right now.

Everything seems pretty on track and with in the realm of reasonable error thus far. Just about everyone in this forum should see at least 4-6" and probably 50% of the forum area will get 8-12".

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I got 10" here and the roads were pretty bad in morning.

I was referring to Manhattan itself.

 

Wow, that's kind of pathetic not going to lie. If that's the case, then It wouldn't shock me at all if NYC schools closed down considering the snow and cold.

Meh, I would feel more confident about NYC schools closing if this storm started 6 hours later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can see the reason for the developing model battle of sorts as the RGEM and to a certain extent NAM keep the band right where it currently is, not really shifting it north. The HRRR, SREF, and RAP move it northward into NE NJ and NYC by 3pm. This will be really interesting to watch unfold as that band has by far the best snow production and will feature rapid accumulations and whiteout conditions. If the RAP or HRRR back off in the next few hours or shift south, we'll probably be looking at the lower tier of forecast amounts. 

 

No complaints here though...moderate snow and beautiful out there. Looks to continue for several hours. If we can get in that band it'll be a bonus. Check out the radar which shows the coastal low forming with weak reflectivity surging from south to north. This is encouraging..hopefully it pushes the band northward over the next hour or so. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You can see the reason for the developing model battle of sorts as the RGEM and to a certain extent NAM keep the band right where it currently is, not really shifting it north. The HRRR, SREF, and RAP move it northward into NE NJ and NYC by 3pm. This will be really interesting to watch unfold as that band has by far the best snow production and will feature rapid accumulations and whiteout conditions. If the RAP or HRRR back off in the next few hours or shift south, we'll probably be looking at the lower tier of forecast amounts.

No complaints here though...moderate snow and beautiful out there. Looks to continue for several hours. If we can get in that band it'll be a bonus. Check out the radar which shows the coastal low forming with weak reflectivity surging from south to north. This is encouraging..hopefully it pushes the band northward over the next hour or so.

Yea it will be fun to watch...the precip coming in from the ocean should nudge it north soon.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's probably not that far off on the timing. My point is that he still managed to find a way to troll this event which hasn't even really started yet.

 

 

what did I say that was wrong...good lord my local met here for the radio station says midnight. See its attacks like this for no reason that should not be tolerated

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...