Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow yeah amounts could end up very close to jan 2, except areas around Boston Hopefully better ratios will help out those of us that didn't get into the heavy banding last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow yeah amounts could end up very close to jan 2, except areas around Boston Are you referring to the entire region or specific places/zones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Why is it that the globals tend to always cut QPF right as an event is starting? I honestly have no idea. Is it proven that they do that, or is that just the perception people have? I'd be curious to find out if it a systematic bias or just something that sticks in people's minds when nerves are high and the storm is beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR wetter again this run (13z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR wetter again this run (13z). where would the deform banding setup john according to the HRRR and also still possible thundersnow as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What time should the heaviest stuff commence in Brooklyn? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0031NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1003 AM CST TUE JAN 21 2014AREAS AFFECTED...NRN VA/ERN MD/SERN PA/DE/NJ/SERN NY/CTCONCERNING...HEAVY SNOWVALID 211603Z - 212200ZSUMMARY...SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ARE FORECAST TOCONTINUE/EXPAND ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTO SRNNEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW IN THE SWRNVA/NWRN NC/NERN TN VICINITY...WITH HINTS OF SECONDARY LOWDEVELOPMENT NERN THE NERN NC/SERN VA COAST. WITH TIME...THISDEVELOPING COASTAL LOW IS FORECAST TO BECOME THE PRIMARYCYCLONE...DEEPENING WITH TIME AS IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. THECYCLOGENESIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLYDIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEY REGION TOWARD THE CAROLINAS.LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TOBECOME INCREASINGLY FOCUSED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND INTOSRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNSET...WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE EXPECTEDTO BECOME WELL-DEFINED N/NW OF THE OFFSHORE CYCLOGENESIS.LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL NOW OCCURRING FROM THEERN HALF OF MD AND ADJACENT NRN VA NEWD TO SRN NJ...WITH AN INCREASEIN COVERAGE OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION OCCURRING OVER THE LAST HOUR.EXPECT A CONTINUED EXPANSION -- AND VERY SLOW ENEWD SHIFT -- OF THEZONE OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA OF FOCUSEDASCENT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND UVV OCCURRING WITHIN THE MOSTFAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...AND WITH SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOSLIKELY TO RESIDE ON THE HIGHER END /AVERAGING IN THE 15-1RANGE/...EXPECT SNOWFALL RATES OF 1" TO 2" PER HOUR ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...GOSS.. 01/21/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Hopefully better ratios will help out those of us that didn't get into the heavy banding last time. I have a decent level of confidence I will end up with more than 5inches. For those who got 8-12 on Long island however, yes it most likely will be a very similar event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mod-heavy snow in NYC- that band in NJ is coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 13z HRRR. 700mb VVels support heavy banding in NYC area. Also maybe some thundersnow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New map showing increase in totals over NE NJ and NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Jackpot zone and banding setting up over freehold NJ, snow capital Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Some signs now of the secondary banding forming near Morristown and the I-287 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 There will be whiteout conditions in much of the area later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 14z HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 There will be whiteout conditions in much of the area later today BehFPZRCUAEQcCh.png large.png 30-35 MPH sustained winds even in NYC? That's close to blizzard criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New HRRR still looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 30-35 MPH sustained winds even in NYC? That's close to blizzard criteria. 10 meter wind gusts (and those are in knots) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 10 meter wind gusts (and those are in knots) Whoops, didn't see that there. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 New HRRR still looking good Everything looks essentially the same..the banding will be right over our area...the 10:1 ratio models are indicating 5-7" which will fall right into the 6-10" amounts forecasted with possible higher amounts in bands. Not worth fretting over the details of individual runs at this point at least in my opinion, enjoy the snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 14z HRRR hrrr_t_precip_neng_16 (2).png Looks like between 0.6 and 0.7" for NYC. What's the end time of the light snow according to the HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NYC Mayor expects snow to end by 10PM tonight therefore things might be ready by morning for school system..Any chance accumulating snows continues to 4AM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NYC Mayor expects snow to end by 10PM tonight therefore things might be ready by morning for school system..Any chance accumulating snows continues to 4AM? Newest RAP suggests otherwise. Snowing through 1am and later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 19.2 and dropping, single digits and snow tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NYC Mayor expects snow to end by 10PM tonight therefore things might be ready by morning for school system..Any chance accumulating snows continues to 4AM? Wait, when did he say that? Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NYC Mayor expects snow to end by 10PM tonight therefore things might be ready by morning for school system..Any chance accumulating snows continues to 4AM? Idk it was suppose to start snowing at early afternoon..not at 8am like it did.. so maybe it does ends around 1-2am. Expect schools to open .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NYC Mayor expects snow to end by 10PM tonight therefore things might be ready by morning for school system..Any chance accumulating snows continues to 4AM? As far as the steadier snow, models had it starting between 7 and 9 am here, and ending between midnight and 2am for the metro areas. Forecasts had it starting early afternoon and ending Wednesday morning.....the actual forecasts seemed about 5 hours later than the model output Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Idk it was suppose to start snowing at early afternoon..not at 8am like it did.. so maybe it does ends around 1-2am. Expect schools to open .. He just said that schools will be open as of now but that can change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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