PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CSheridan12 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 You know we can't do that. We have to obsess over whether we get 9.5 or 10" of snow. You forgot about the all important 9.625, 9.75, & 9.875! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 4KNAM NAILS EVERYONE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We are in the snow now, models are useless, better to nowcast snd watch the radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 guys and gals, just a bit of info here that i'm spreading to all the east coast forums. for the next 18-24 hours, you're getting some extra meso-ensemble model help from out here in the mid-west. John Wetter, who runs the HopWRF out here, has shifted the domain east to cover most of the east coast. hope it helps in any short-range stuff. hopwrf.info is the site. here's his tweet showing the area. HopWRF @HopWRF 1h We have hopped! This domain will be in place starting with the 12Z runs (available around 10 AM). #northeastsnow http://ow.ly/i/4lOAs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Lmao... He'll be wrong again...never learns...anyway many dog days coming...lmao He's probably not that far off on the timing. My point is that he still managed to find a way to troll this event which hasn't even really started yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 4KNAM NAILS EVERYONE Is that graph at 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Is that graph at 10:1? Yup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Stop looking at the GFS/Euro for this event. Stick to the 4k NAM, RAP, HRRR, RGEM ect. Agreed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Stop looking at the GFS/Euro for this event. Stick to the 4k NAM, RAP, HRRR, RGEM ect. The RAP looks great...HRRR very nice as well. RGEM cut back big time from the 00z run, a good 50 miles SE now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The GFS is right where we want it to be since the heavier bands set up NW of it's QPF axis. Agree 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 anyone have problems with Wunderground radar not showing Blue precipation; only gree. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 We are in the snow now, models are useless, better to nowcast snd watch the radar! No no no thats even worse. Never look at the radar during the early parts of a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Gives my local area a decent band with impressive snow totals. How accurate is this typically? Best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That HRRR map is 10 to 1 , it looks great - has the Max right in where it should be . increase those totals by 50 to 70 perc IMO It might look great but doesn't line up with where the banding is setting up. Shift the HRRR map 20-30 miles south an it looks right to me. The current banding also lines up well with 850mb Frontogenesis http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The RAP looks great...HRRR very nice as well. RGEM cut back big time from the 00z run, a good 50 miles SE now RGEM always does the cut down at this time frame just before a storm. It's past it's wheelhouse range at this point. 0z was probably it's last reliable depiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 anyone have problems with Wunderground radar not showing Blue precipation; only gree. Thanks I am also having this problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 12z RGEM is about the same as 06z from looking at the black and white maps. Main show is southern NJ and eastern Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Weather.cod.edu better radar than wunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Weather.cod.edu better radar than wunderground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Gives my local area a decent band with impressive snow totals. How accurate is this typically? Best. Take a blend of the 4k nam HRRR RAP at this point . and check the radar , and see if the returns match the forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Weather.cod.edu better radar than wunderground Agreed http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0Q-0-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It might look great but doesn't line up with where the banding is setting up. Shift the HRRR map 20-30 miles south an it looks right to me. The current banding also lines up well with 850mb Frontogenesis http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=17# Matches the 4k NAM , But if its 25 miles too N , gotta expect stuff like that I like the look of the RAP . But i kinda blend em , and I think the Philly NYC L I corridor , still looks spot on to me . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Here comes the major freak out, I can sense it. I'm getting light to moderate snow here and I'm currently only under 5-10dbz returns. That heavy banding down south is forecast to move northward and fall apart some, but not before dumping warning criteria snowfall on the area. This slight tick downward in QPF on the globals is very typical as an event is ongoing. It's better to use the high res modeling at this point and observations. Those are your best bet. Nobody was really forecasted in this forum to be in heavy snow until mid-afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Matches the 4k NAM , But if its 25 miles too N , gotta expect stuff like that I like the look of the RAP . But i kinda blend em , and I think the Philly NYC L I corridor , still looks spot on to me . The city on south and east has for a while looked like it was in the best shape for this. The distribution of snow amounts may look a lot like 1/2/14 at the end of the day. North of where the main banding sets up, like maybe up past Newburgh, there will likely be a rip-off zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 guys and gals, just a bit of info here that i'm spreading to all the east coast forums. for the next 18-24 hours, you're getting some extra meso-ensemble model help from out here in the mid-west. John Wetter, who runs the HopWRF out here, has shifted the domain east to cover most of the east coast. hope it helps in any short-range stuff. hopwrf.info is the site. here's his tweet showing the area. Thanks for the nugget! Another tool in the short range forecasting arsenal; we need it to put some meteorological sense into the nowcasting jitters and hysteria that often begets most snowstorms in-situ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 wow, temps just keeps going down here (FRG)... we were at 24F when i got to work at 8am and now we're down to 19F...! EDIT: Oops, this should be in OBS thread, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Stop looking at the GFS/Euro for this event. Stick to the 4k NAM, RAP, HRRR, RGEM ect. While the hi-res models are obviously more accurate in the short-range, it isn't as if global models are less accurate in the short term and then suddenly get more accurate in the medium range. The hi-res mesoscale models will (hopefully) be able to pick up on banding and such, but I feel like there's a lot of sentiment (not necessarily from you, but in general) that the larger scale models are "out of their range" in the short term, which just isn't true. The relative usefulness of hi-res vs. global models just changes. Gives my local area a decent band with impressive snow totals. How accurate is this typically? Best. It is NAM output, just multiplied by a factor of 10. You decide for yourself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Wow yeah amounts could end up very close to jan 2, except areas around Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 While the hi-res models are obviously more accurate in the short-range, it isn't as if global models are less accurate in the short term and then suddenly get more accurate in the medium range. The hi-res mesoscale models will (hopefully) be able to pick up on banding and such, but I feel like there's a lot of sentiment (not necessarily from you, but in general) that the larger scale models are "out of their range" in the short term, which just isn't true. The relative usefulness of hi-res vs. global models just changes. It is NAM output, just multiplied by a factor of 10. You decide for yourself. Why is it that the globals tend to always cut QPF right as an event is starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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