Weathergun Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 13z HRRR on Wxbell shows more qpf. Near .60" NYC, W LI, N-CNJ thru 4z tonight. Still coming into better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Forgot you said something like that paul didnt mean to copy you and take credit for the prediction That band coming off the jersey coastline up to LI is going to be awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Its going to be over by midnight for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Forgot you said something like that paul didnt mean to copy you and take credit for the prediction That band coming off the jersey coastline up to LI is going to be awesome! I was kidding , I dont own that forecast , although i was hoping for an inch of liquid at 20 to 1 ( greed ) . But i do like 10 to 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 13z HRRR on Wxbell shows more qpf. Near .60" NYC, W LI, N-CNJ thru 4z tonight. Still coming into better range. Does anyone have the color maps from the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For those saying that the snow started earlier then expected....this actually was modeled for a over a day....consistently showing on sim radar a tongue of moisture spreading through C and NNJ as an initial burst between 7 and 9 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 When was the last time a clipper exploded near the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 13z HRRR on Wxbell shows more qpf. Near .60" NYC, W LI, N-CNJ thru 4z tonight. Still coming into better range. Snowfall maps using a 10 to 1 ratio, show 5 - 7" for the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I know its the GFS and its SR model time but GFS definitely backed off its previous totals that had 12+ in a lot of areas throughout the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 All of the models are indicating what I call a "panic period" later this morning and early afternoon as the initial slug of precipitation weakens a bit. But they all show banding rapidly increasing thereafter. Save this post -- I bet you all money we start to see people freaking out that the radar looks dry and too far south around 2pm. Anyway, here's what follows and moves N: I'm only half kidding when I say you might want to post this every 20 minutes or so, especially in the obs thread, as it will get lost amidst all the pages... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 13z HRRR on Wxbell shows more qpf. Near .60" NYC, W LI, N-CNJ thru 4z tonight. Still coming into better range. Has been increasing slowly each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For those saying that the snow started earlier then expected....this actually was modeled for a over a day....consistently showing on sim radar a tongue of moisture spreading through C and NNJ as an initial burst between 7 and 9 am Interesting because Craig Allen and 1010 wins were saying this morning around 630am that snow would begin late morning to around noon. Craig even said snow may not begin till early afternoon on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Has been increasing slowly each run. Earthlight from your perspective do you see the possibilities of this storm lasting longer than forecasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 When was the last time a clipper exploded near the coast? around the last time the Mets were relevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 around the last time the Mets were relevant. LOL that is a LONGGGGG time! Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh....GFS further south and barely gets 0.5 into NNJ! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 around the last time the Mets were relevant. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh....GFS further south and barely gets 0.5 into NNJ! Lolpanic!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 around the last time the Mets were relevant. Not funny. I think it was 2005. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That HRRR map is 10 to 1 , it looks great - has the Max right in where it should be . increase those totals by 50 to 70 perc IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh....GFS further south and barely gets 0.5 into NNJ! Lol Uh oh you should stop looking at models and go outside and have fun with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh....GFS further south and barely gets 0.5 into NNJ! Lol This isn't the point where you use the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This isn't the point where you use the GFS. Agree. Bit too late to look at the larger scale models. Better to use the rap and hrrr in this time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh....GFS further south and barely gets 0.5 into NNJ! Lol This isn't the point where you use the GFS. I added the lol to show I'm kidding. The lol is so useful in conversation nowadays. You can tell someone "hey you look terrible today lol". As long as there is an lol it makes it ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Its going to be over by midnight for most Thanks for not letting us down bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh....GFS further south and barely gets 0.5 into NNJ! Lol It's trying to figure out where the heavy bands set up. It's gonna fluctuate ...why even look at it for this ongoing snow storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Thanks for not letting us down bro Lmao... He'll be wrong again...never learns...anyway many dog days coming...lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Uh oh you should stop looking at models and go outside and have fun with the snow. You know we can't do that. We have to obsess over whether we get 9.5 or 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Stop looking at the GFS/Euro for this event. Stick to the 4k NAM, RAP, HRRR, RGEM ect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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