Sock Puppet Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I don't think so or maybe it will end before expected too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Although this is nowcast time the NAM is 20 miles further south with the .50-.75 totals Nam wont make up her mind until the event is over. Its decent inside 24hrs but still way too jittery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Already snowing out here in Mount Sinai Suffolk county Long Island! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nam wont make up her mind until the event is over. Its decent inside 24hrs but still way too jittery. It's nowcasting time. Little shifts one way or the other are to be expected. Everything's on track for a very significant event for 90% of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nam wont make up her mind until the event is over. Its decent inside 24hrs but still way too jittery. exactly-model noise. Time to relax and enjoy-6-12 dump of windblown powder for most to all on this board... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Dude , left wife in charge of measuring , don't think that's work out well , so please keep me up in MC . Think a 15 spot shows up on the board somewhere in the corridor , but by that time , its not gona matter . Hahaha I hear ya. Well I'm working from home today so I'll keep you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Strange, the HRRR doesn't look impressive at all for the area. Shifted heavier banding a good deal south. I'm surprised it's showing this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 exactly-model noise. Time to relax and enjoy-6-12 dump of windblown powder for most to all on this board... A benefit being on the water this go around lol. GL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RAP looks awesome. How has that performed of late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For once, a storm that has started hours earlier than expected and accumulating, no waiting for atmosphere to saturate, no melting... this will be an overproducer. Already dusting 1/4 mile visibility and temp down to 22.5 and dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Strange, the HRRR doesn't look impressive at all for the area. Shifted heavier banding a good deal south. I'm surprised it's showing this What? The 11z run looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 How low can the temperature drop tonight at the storm's height? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Eh depends where your st, im on my phone right now, but i say 8-18 above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Strange, the HRRR doesn't look impressive at all for the area. Shifted heavier banding a good deal south. I'm surprised it's showing this What? The 11z run looks fine. m I'm probably looking at it wrong then or something....but it looks like total accumulations are 4-6" for NNJ area...still snowing at 15 hours but not heavy. Last storm early January it showed total accumulations 10-12" here and I got 6, so I'm being just a bit cautious with the HRRR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What? The 11z run looks fine. Yea we are not talk 2" in qpf with this storm, so you shouldnt see 35+ dbz... this is high ratio fluff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 mI'm probably looking at it wrong then or something....but it looks like total accumulations are 4-6" for NNJ area...still snowing at 15 hours but not heavy. Last storm early January it showed total accumulations 10-12" here and I got 6, so I'm being just a bit cautious with the HRRR The RAP is a very good model to use as well. Performed excellent in the 1-3-14 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 RAP looks awesome. How has that performed of late? It becomes more accurate the closer in you get. This was always supposed to favor around the city and south/east, so little shifts shouldn't be surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 4k NAM looks great from about I-80 south and good for about 30-40 miles north of I-80. You really have to get into far northeast PA or northern Orange County before the real cut off occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It becomes more accurate the closer in you get. This was always supposed to favor around the city and south/east, so little shifts shouldn't be surprising. JM, what is the most you can get in your backyard if everything maxed out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yea we are not talk 2" in qpf with this storm, so you shouldnt see 35+ dbz... this is high ratio fluff It also has increased totals every run so far. So lets give it some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 All of the models are indicating what I call a "panic period" later this morning and early afternoon as the initial slug of precipitation weakens a bit. But they all show banding rapidly increasing thereafter. Save this post -- I bet you all money we start to see people freaking out that the radar looks dry and too far south around 2pm. Anyway, here's what follows and moves N: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 All of the models are indicating what I call a "panic period" later this morning and early afternoon as the initial slug of precipitation weakens a bit. But they all show banding rapidly increasing thereafter. Save this post -- I bet you all money we start to see people freaking out that the radar looks dry and too far south around 2pm. Anyway, here's what follows and moves N: Nice shot and nice way to ease the panic....I feel a tad bit calmer lol. That's a very interesting shot, as it does seem to show dual bands, as well as a very sharp cutoff once you get into NW NJ. Pretty much nothing there to heavy snow just a short drive south and east. I'm within the northern part of the heavier band here so in happy I also think that the NW model trends have ended. NAM and GFS trended NW every model run yesterday, as well as the RGEM, etc....I think we are zeroing in in a jackpot zone of Monmouth county (who would have thought ?!) into much of Long Island and SE NE. Will be fun to watch !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The trend is your friend like wintergrasp said where it starts it usually will not disappoint . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Any chance this could stall off the coast for a period while undergoing bombogenesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR has increased snow totals again...and those maps are a 10:1 ratio to my knowledge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Any chance this could stall off the coast for a period while undergoing bombogenesis? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR has increased snow totals again...and those maps are a 10:1 ratio to my knowledge. What are the updated totals? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Its about to get real exciting around 3PM: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=13&fhour=08¶meter=VVELD&level=700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Its about to get real exciting around 3PM: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=13&fhour=08¶meter=VVELD&level=700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false# Oh man! Coastal NJ and LI are going to walloped around that time! Going out on a limb and will say those in best VV are going to have some thundersnow for a period of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 All of the models are indicating what I call a "panic period" later this morning and early afternoon as the initial slug of precipitation weakens a bit. But they all show banding rapidly increasing thereafter. Save this post -- I bet you all money we start to see people freaking out that the radar looks dry and too far south around 2pm. Anyway, here's what follows and moves N: Excellent preemptive message. I strongly agree. Once the initial snowfall wanes, there's no need to panic. This is going to be a very nice storm for much of the area. Even for areas well to the north and west of the NYC area, 4" or more snow is far better than what was modeled just a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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