Jefflaw77 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 what is the significant of this based upon your knowledge? Based on the H5, the differences between the 07Z HRRR and the 06Z GFS are pretty notable. The 528 dm contour line is over the TN/NC border @HR 14 (21Z) from the 07Z HRRR, while the 06Z GFS has the 528 dm contour line over the KY/VA border @HR 15 (21Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 what is the significant of this based upon your knowledge? This means that the HRRR is suggesting a faster developing SLP and the Heaviest snowfall axis to fall directly over NYC. This could result in much higher amounts. There could be at least 12"+ from PHL to LI. I'll wait until mid morning and then see if the HRRR is consistent with the more amplified idea. To add on, the H5 vort could tilt faster than what the GFS is showing. Which will enable the SLP to hug the coast more and the snowfall banding will be slower/more vertically stacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 For what it is worth, this is what the CRAS has been showing all along. This will be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I would look for 2-3 inch per hour rates from 6 PM through 1 AM. This could be another NESIS 2 KU STORM. If the gfs is right much of the snow has already fallen by early this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 08Z HRRR is continuing the more amped solution through HR 15. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014012108&plotName=vort_500&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=full Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Perfect track for NYC metro. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014012108&plotName=cref_t3sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Talk about some snow growth. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/jsloopLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?dsKeys=hrrr_jet:&runTime=2014012108&plotName=vvel_t3700&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=16&model=hrrr&ptitle=HRRR%20Model%20Fields%20-%20Experimental&maxFcstLen=15&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I have to wonder if the now upped forecasts of 8-12" may still be a little low based on the current trends, also a wind chill advisory to go along with that. This has really become an impressive storm, KU territory perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I have to wonder if the now upped forecasts of 8-12" may still be a little low based on the current trends, also a wind chill advisory to go along with that. This has really become an impressive storm, KU territory perhaps. When the SREFs came out with 0.5 qpf I screamed KU, earthlight joked about it. Well here we are now, use HRRR and RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I have to wonder if the now upped forecasts of 8-12" may still be a little low based on the current trends, also a wind chill advisory to go along with that. This has really become an impressive storm, KU territory perhaps. Based on qpf and snow ratios. About .3 falls with temperatures in the 20s which would yield around 5 inches, and when temperatures fall into the teens another .4 falls which is about 9 inches, so I think 8-12 inches is a good range with higher amounts possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This may be crazy, but the 09Z RUC Backup has the H5 Low closing at 4 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Rip city! On like donkey kong ...RADAR TRENDS AS OF 10Z SHOW SOME BANDING ACROSS SRN PA...ALIGNED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY AND EXPAND EWD LATER TODAY WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES FROM MD/ERN PA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SRN NEW YORK WHERE DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BOTH INTENSIFY AND BE ALIGNED WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH. ..JEWELL.. 01/21/2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 My Thinking for the storm: http://liveweatherblogs.com/index.php?option=com_community&view=groups&task=viewdiscussion&groupid=8&topicid=70227&Itemid=179 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Rip city! On like donkey kong ...RADAR TRENDS AS OF 10Z SHOW SOME BANDING ACROSS SRN PA...ALIGNED WITH WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. THIS BAND SHOULD INTENSIFY AND EXPAND EWD LATER TODAY WITH HEAVIER SNOW RATES FROM MD/ERN PA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SRN NEW YORK WHERE DEEP FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL BOTH INTENSIFY AND BE ALIGNED WITH TEMPERATURE PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR MAXIMUM DENDRITIC GROWTH. ..JEWELL.. 01/21/2014 Can't wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 This may be crazy, but the 09Z RUC Backup has the H5 Low closing at 4 AM. Storm will be wrapping up for our area although some modeling suggests some potential for a couple wrap around snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR centers NYC for biggest snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 To be honest I'm surprised on Upton's map I'm still in 6-8 in Essex county nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR centers NYC for biggest snow LOL! Knew LI getting the heaviest snow was a tease Also currently the precip looks like it will arrive sooner than ex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 HRRR centers NYC for biggest snow LOL! Knew LI getting the heaviest snow was a tease Also currently the precip looks like it will arrive sooner than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOL! Knew LI getting the heaviest snow was a tease Also currently the precip looks like it will arrive sooner than expected Well LI is still near the heaviest snow, according to the 07Z HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 LOL! Knew LI getting the heaviest snow was a tease Also currently the precip looks like it will arrive sooner than expected It's going to be a very nice storm for us. I wouldn't be surprised if we beat what fell on Jan 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's going to be a very nice storm for us. I wouldn't be surprised if we beat what fell on Jan 2. Looking at the RAP and HRRR show frontogenesis at 700mb, heavy banding from Philly to LI this afternoon, 1983 like http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=01&model_dd=21&model_init_hh=10&fhour=11¶meter=VVELD&level=700&unit=MB&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I've always noticed that the area that gets that first "tongue" if moisture is usually one of the hardest hit areas. That "tongue" is reaching out over NNJ right now into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Radar blossoming last few frames Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I have the best snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On the upton site, how to I pull up the projected snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What a day an night ahead Predictions: Horrible rush hour, LIE to be closed later Crush zone unknown, but some spots 15 - 18 inches NYC/LI schools shut down tomorrow, announcement made tonight, not tomorrow Thundersnow Long Island upgraded to Blizzard Warning with afternoon package. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 What a day an night ahead Predictions: Horrible rush hour, LIE to be closed later Crush zone unknown, but some spots 15 - 18 inches NYC/LI schools shut down tomorrow, announcement made tonight, not tomorrow Thundersnow Long Island upgraded to Blizzard Warning with afternoon package. agree with everything other than the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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