StatenWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nice to know the nam finally came around even though its not a super reliable model.... Nevertheless .50-.75 line is a good 30 miles north and precip is still going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12"+ from PHL, through Central NJ and into NYC and LI on the 06Z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12"+ from PHL, through Central NJ and into NYC and LI on the 06Z NAM. There will be some shocked people today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The setup for us right now....is actually PERFECT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 4k is looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 4k is looking great 4k is pretty much in line with the 12k qpf output is basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like there will be 15-18 inch w/ isolated 20 inch totals for NYC, NE NJ and western LI. I bet somewhere in NYC and LI area we see 15-20 inch spotted reports with 4-5 ft drifts. Blizzard warnings may be put up for Nassau and Suffolk County if winds were 5-10 mph stronger. Looks like we are about to enter a 4-6 week period of 6 inches or greater snow depths. We are definately not going to see grass in this area until sometime in March with wire to wire cold looking locked indefinately through the rest of winter per excellent indices for quite awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like there will be 15-18 inch w/ isolated 20 inch totals for NYC, NE NJ and western LI. I bet somewhere in NYC and LI area we see 15-20 inch spotted reports with 4-5 ft drifts. Blizzard warnings may be put up for Nassau and Suffolk County if winds were 5-10 mph stronger. Looks like we are about to enter a 4-6 week period of 6 inches or greater snow depths. At this rate, I think that 12-18" of snow could be approachable. I'll have to keep tabs on the HRRR and RUC for further information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 At this rate, I think that 12-18" of snow could be approachable. I'll have to keep tabs on the HRRR and RUC for further information. The HRRR is really annoying me. It always goes down before a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm following the weather around here since the mid 1960's and I cannot ever recall 2 snowstorms in the same Winter Season with a good bulk of the snow falling with temps in the mid teens or lower. We've started out in the mid teens (PDII and Jan96) while several of our big storms have seen temps in the low to mid 20's (Feb78, Feb83, Jan96, PD II) It seems that the big ones post PDII have been relatively 'warm' storms with temps in the upper 20's to right around freezing. So I think it is remarkable for this area (and I'm talking mainly coastal sections) to see it snow at such low temps. You may not see this again for decades but then again you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I would look for 2-3 inch per hour rates from 6 PM through 1 AM. This could be another NESIS 2 KU STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm following the weather around here since the mid 1960's and I cannot ever recall 2 snowstorms in the same Winter Season with a good bulk of the snow falling with temps in the mid teens or lower. We've started out in the mid teens (PDII and Jan96) while several of our big storms have seen temps in the low to mid 20's (Feb78, Feb83, Jan96, PD II) It seems that the big ones post PDII have been relatively 'warm' storms with temps in the upper 20's to right around freezing. So I think it is remarkable for this area (and I'm talking mainly coastal sections) to see it snow at such low temps. You may not see this again for decades but then again you never know. We are likely not going to see this good of winter until probably 10 or 20 years. The winters ending w/ 4 in the seasons are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Nice bump NW on the 4k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 06Z RUC Backup has the deform band pivoting and still over us by 1 AM. The H5 on it looks vicious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I have to throw this out there but some of this model output today is starting to remind me of Feb 83. I think it's becoming rather clear that this storm is going to come in fast and furious. I don't think we are going to deal with 6-8 hours of light to moderate snow. We may all be snowing heavy by 3pm or so and it may stay that way for 12 hours for those that see the deformation band pivot back toward them. Somebody may see 20" with these crazy ratios. Feb 83 saw snow arrive at 1pm on Long Island become heavy by 2pm and never waver for the next 14 hours. I lived in Massapequa at the time and we got 23". I'm not comparing tomorrows event to 1983 synoptically but rather the way it may produce for some in this region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Shore snow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 They may have to shift that a bit more north in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 That looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 A nice NW tick on the GFS @12 on the precip field also a tick more amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Just when I thought the GFS couldn't get anymore amped, it just proved me wrong. The SLP is clearly stronger and the CCB is further NW through HR 12. Also, there's a .5-.75"/3 hr band now involved in the run. That monsterous .5 - 75"/3 hr band is gone after HR 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Basically in line with 0z, maybe a hair wetter and a tick NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I'm off to bed, be up at 12 good luck everyone lets enjoy this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Clipper gone wild is in almost nowcasting mode she is a sneaky little devil . wind north at 20kts, pressure steady. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New HRRR is out finally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The snowfall output is very close to the 06Z NAM, but the Heavy Snowfall axis skips NYC and it's further north. Otherwise, 12-14"+ at SE PA, 12"+ over CNJ, 10-12" over NYC/NE NJ and 12"+ over LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New HRRR is out finally Based on the H5, the differences between the 07Z HRRR and the 06Z GFS are pretty notable. The 528 dm contour line is over the TN/NC border @HR 14 (21Z) from the 07Z HRRR, while the 06Z GFS has the 528 dm contour line over the KY/VA border @HR 15 (21Z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Gfs bring .75+ over central li and portions of nj and east pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Based on the H5, the differences between the 07Z HRRR and the 06Z GFS are pretty notable. The 528 dm contour line is over the TN/NC border @HR 14 (21Z), while the 06Z GFS has the 528 dm contour line over the KY/VA border @HR 15 (21Z). Yea good point but I like to wait untill the hrrr is sub 10 hours because it becomes more accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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