sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Guess most of us know it's going to snow, a lot. Not a debate anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NYC/Long Island the same? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 ECMWF @HR 24: H5 is a near carbon copy of the 00Z GFS, except that the heights are slightly higher ahead of the vort and the Western Ridge is a bit stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 DC saying its north and not good for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's north but its not like the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's north but its not like the other models The ECM is still playing catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Actually by hr 42 it has .5 qpf through most of the area. .2-.4 north of I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Euro has looked like a second class model with the last 2 storms. I wonder why it is having such difficulty with this pattern. Seems to have something to do with the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Heights were higher on the east coast early in the run compared to 12z. The low developed north of where is was on the 12z run. Really bombs out SE of the BM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Yeah remarkably uniform area of .5 for most all at and below rt 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So overall a little better than the 12z but not as impressive as the gfs/rgem/sref Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 So overall a little better than the 12z but not as impressive as the gfs/rgem/sref Probably, widespread 0.5 QPF sounds okay to me, but I completely tossed, overlooked this model for this event because the Euro just looked lost. It's been playing catch up to the other models for a couple of days now. The Euro is not king with these types of disturbances, and I don't expect it to be for the next few disturbances after tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 North for SNE too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Euro has looked like a second class model with the last 2 storms. I wonder why it is having such difficulty with this pattern. Seems to have something to do with the western ridge. I believe the Euro tends to struggle more in the western ridge/eastern trof pattern when there is no strong NATL blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I believe the Euro tends to struggle more in the western ridge/eastern trof pattern when there is no strong NATL blocking.Any comment for up here on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Any comment for up here on this run? .3 - .4" of liquid for Logan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New HRRR sets up the banding right over nyc right from the beginning. - Still not in its best range though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Consider yourself lucky. Boxing day left 12" here.Boxing Day was probably my favorite storm ever even though we got only 20". It showed that a real La Niña, a moderate to strong one, did not preclude having a great winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The #1 Analogue from CIPS for this event is February 12th, 2006. I found out from Snow88 and I found it on the CIPS site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Another big hit by the SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 They ticked ever so slightly SE but for all intents and purposes was basically the same. Fringe areas get slightly less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Another big hit by the SREFs It's slightly drier, but still a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It's slightly drier, but still a big hit. Yea should be a slight hit on the mean but 17" was a little over done anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Plume looks like 16" for LGA slight down tick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 srefs mean about half inch higher for jfk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM deff ticked more NW with the precip shield 20 - 30 miles (@17) - great run should be slightly wetter than 0z esp nw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 NAM deff ticked more NW with the precip shield 20 - 30 miles (@17) Looks 2x better than the 00z IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The precip shield for the 06Z NAM is much larger than the 00Z GFS when the CCB gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 New NAM/SREF/HRRR bullseye is NENJ/NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 12Z GEM-LAM total snowfall GEM-LAM three hour snowfall ending at 21Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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