sferic Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:16 AM, jm1220 said: Wow. Hate to say it, but for once SW Long Island looks like a good spot to be. Agreed so we are poised for 10+inches here, and it stays cold afterward but doubt it stays for highs in upper single digits or low teens. When do you forsee adding to tomorrow's event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 6 SREF members above 30 inches for KPOU . One member has 40.65, one has 0. Alot of the ARW members set up the banding north of the city, to the point where just south of the city is dryslotted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 With the SREF jackpot NW of me and the NAM jackpot SE of me....I kinda like where I'm sitting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 It was pointed out in the NW forum that several SREF members have two different areas of banding. The 18z GFS also had this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Last post got deleted , This has company in the RGEM and SREF . I like it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:29 AM, YanksFan27 said: It was pointed out in the NW forum that several SREF members have two different areas of banding. The 18z GFS also had this. This type of setup becomes a nowcasting specialty and where the short-range models become useful. The models though do show significant enough movement/pivoting with the band as currently modeled, which I can tell from past experience it's not always one massive band, but sometimes a couple with a nasty subsidence zone in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The Arctic Boundary is a bit slower than expected. It could have some moderate implications to the precip shield and track of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:36 AM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The Arctic Boundary is a bit slower than expected. It could have some moderate implications to the precip shield and track of the system. In what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 The NMM on Ewall has 0.75-1.00 of liquid while the ARW has 1.00+, both with the banding directly from PHL to NYC including NE NJ. A bit NW of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 I will bet 0z comes N , like its 12z , 0z NAM ticked N from 18z , and the SREF did tonite as well . Same general corridor , but philly to nyc to long island seem to be the target . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:38 AM, SnoSki14 said: In what way? The SLP could end up further NW if this keeps up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Someone is going to get 15" while nearby someone will get 5"....it's fun as we watch where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:36 AM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The Arctic Boundary is a bit slower than expected. It could have some moderate implications to the precip shield and track of the system. This was mentioned in the previous thread also. Could it be the SREF is picking up on this slow down more so? Also, the heavy banding is at a sw/ne direction. Where you would think it would have more of an easterly swath instead of n/e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:39 AM, earthlight said: The NMM on Ewall has 0.75-1.00 of liquid while the ARW has 1.00+, both with the banding directly from PHL to NYC including NE NJ. A bit NW of the NAM. as someone who is right on the line of heavy banding and being in the subsidence zone, thats nice to hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:42 AM, hudsonvalley21 said: This was mentioned in the previous thread also. Could it be the SREF is picking up on this slow down more so? Maybe. Let's see what the RGEM/GFS/ECM say about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Relatively useless RPM model is in line with the ARW/NMM banding signal. Runs from PHL or just NW of it through NE NJ and right into NYC and Western Long Island. Snowfall total map is 8-12 for that entire area..a little less in SE NJ and NW NJ (the extremities). Not worth much but figured worth a relay while we wait for the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 RGEM looks really amped up through 12 hours...more mid level ridging on the East Coast compared to the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:44 AM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: Maybe. Let's see what the RGEM/GFS/ECM say about it. Yup, It will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:45 AM, earthlight said: Relatively useless RPM model is in line with the ARW/NMM banding signal. Runs from PHL or just NW of it through NE NJ and right into NYC and Western Long Island. Snowfall total map is 8-12 for that entire area..a little less in SE NJ and NW NJ (the extremities). Not worth much but figured worth a relay while we wait for the RGEM. Might be a stupid question but why does it seem like there are so many worthless models? I mean it must cost money to keep running them and someone must get some benefit otherwise why have them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 2:39 AM, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: The SLP could end up further NW if this keeps up. then all bets are off - most of North Jersey and NYC and LI would see over 12 " especially if the storm stalls for a couple of hours....might even be some mixing issues on the southeast NJ coast for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 The 00z RGEM is a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Mt holly going 8-10 along I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Farther NW with banding through 24 hours http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/512_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 nice water vapor shot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 Looks like at least 15mm in NYC and much more South and East...bumped NW of the 12 and 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 15-20mm from PHL to NYC. Basically that's .6 - .8" of liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 There is one SREF member which gives Newark 38.37" of snow. If you take away that member and the bottom member from the mean, still 15.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 Sounds like the same as The earlier run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 21, 2014 Author Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:03 AM, thunderbolt said: Sounds like the same as The earlier run It was a 25+ mile shift NW with the NW periphery of banding just glancing at the black and white 400,000 x 400,000 pixel maps which are still basically unreadable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted January 21, 2014 Share Posted January 21, 2014 On 1/21/2014 at 3:04 AM, earthlight said: It was a 25+ mile shift NW with the NW periphery of banding just glancing at the black and white 400,000 x 400,000 pixel maps which are still basically unreadable.Ha! I've always wondered why those maps still look like that with the technology available! NAM and RGEM ticked NW to follow the GFS. NYC is in the crosshairs on this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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